Warwick and Newbury Saturday Betting Tips – DS
Warwick and Newbury Saturday Preview
Bar a couple of nice places, the Xmas period was a damp squib for us. Super Citizen didn’t try a yard at Leopardstown on Thursday. The ground wasn’t as soft as I’d hoped for Copper Nation and Barnacullia. Gringo D’ainay was another suspect trier. Hopefully we can at least find one or two horses that will be doing their best today, Dave Stevos’ Warwick and Newbury Saturday tips are below.
1.15 Newbury – Handicap Chase (Class 3)
The ground was described as good to soft at Newbury on Friday afternoon. However, the weather forecast is suggesting that the rain is due to come at 9am and if that is correct, it is going to be pretty taxing ground. The problem is, most of the longer priced horses here would like it to dry out.
The fav, Gamaret, has form on soft, heavy and good to soft so conditions look ideal for him, whatever the weather does. His form is nothing to write home about but this is a pretty dire race and if he is fit, Venetia Williams’ charge might be too good for these.
Mild Encouragement
At around 20/1, maybe Mongol Emperor can build on the mild encouragement he showed last time out. After a really poor return at Wetherby (19f gd/sft), he ran a lot better in a first time tongue tie over 16f on heavy at the same track. Yes, he was beat 10L into 4th but he finished at lot closer than he did on his previous run when beat 27L.
He is back down to a mark of 120 now, the same rating off which he was beaten a neck at Doncaster (16f sft) back in March over timber. His two wins have come on good to soft, he won a P2P on soft and this is just his third chase start so he hopefully learned plenty from his first two runs in this discipline. At odds of 20/1, Mongol Emperor is a speculative and hopeful e/w selection. This is a desperate race for a pretty modest pot though, so keep stakes low.
Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tip: Mongol Emperor e/w @ 20/1
1.35 Warwick – Handicap Hurdle (Class 4)
Poundland are fitting sponsors of the two live ITV races from Warwick. Both class 4 events, the ground is going to be soft there too and in the hope it turns bottomless, Potters Hedger is the e/w play here at around 20/1. Now trained by Charlie Longsdon, he races off a mark of 110 with Bradley Roberts taking off another 7lbs. That means he is effectively racing off 103 here, 24lbs lower than his last winning mark.
That win came on heavy at Haydock, the last time he had bottomless ground. His career form figures in those conditions read 22291. He won a C&D handicap off 117 back in March 2020 on soft and the blinkers he sported that day are back on (along with a tongue tie). His comeback run at Huntingdon didn’t offer much encouragement but, in his defence, the ground was far too quick. Young Bradley Roberts has made a bright start to his career (5/30 with 10 Top 4s) and at 22/1, hopefully he can coax Potters Hedger back to form.
Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tip: Potters Hedger e/w @ 22/1 (4 places)
1.50 Newbury – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
There is likely to be plenty of early pace on in this 20f handicap hurdle. If the ground turns as testing as I think, it’ll turn this into a stamina test. It will probably take a horse that stays a bit further than 20f to win yet the 9/4 fav Pikar has yet to race beyond 16f and on his sole start on soft, he finished well beaten. Lady Adare is next in the betting and she brings an unbeaten record into the race. However, all four of her wins came on ground with good in the description.
Blenkinsop has won at 21f and on soft so of the market leaders, he makes most appeal. Of the horses at bigger odds, maybe Warranty can go well. He took a 19f handicap hurdle at Warwick on soft ground last time off 117. He previously won over 20f on good off 110 and he is now up to a career high mark of 124.
Caoilin Quinn claims 5lbs to ease the burden and that could really help if it is testing. The horse he beat last time hacked up by 8L on his next start and so did the 4th. The son of Authorized has placed over 26f on good, which shows he has stamina and he is unexposed on soft ground at this trip. 16/1 looks a big price about Warranty and at those odds, he has to be worth chancing e/w.
Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tip: Warranty e/w @ 16/1 (4 places)
2.10 Warwick – Veterans’ Chase (Class 4)
The one I’ll take a chance on here in the hope it is heavy by the time of the off is The Kings Writ. Trained by Kayley Woollacott, this son of Brian Boru never really found his form last season. His last decent run came at Newbury back in March 2021 and since then, he has failed to complete in three of his last five starts.
At Exeter on his comeback he weakened (24f gd/sft) and was eventually pulled up. To be fair, he’s only had his ideal ground once since a 2nd at Wincanton (26f hvy) off 135 in January 2021. He was again pulled up in that hot Sandown handicap and in three runs since then, he’s been running on ground quicker than ideal.
Overall, The Kings Writ has form figures of F11326P on heavy ground. He is in off a mark of just 115 today and given his profile, it is probably his last chance to show something so hopefully he is there to do his best. Maybe he is simply sick of the game but if enough rain comes, it might just spark him back to some sort of form. Again, keep stakes modest for this one.
Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tip: The Kings Writ e/w @ 40/1
2.25 Newbury – Mandarin Handicap Chase (Class 3)
The last time Fagan had heavy ground, he absolutely hosed up in a 23.5f handicap at this track. That was in January 2021 off 132 and two runs later he went close off 138 at Warwick (24f gd/sft). On his final start of 2021 he was pulled up at Cheltenham and his first run since came at Aintree in the Becher earlier this month. The 12yo son of Fair Mix was beat 40+ lengths but he finished 10th of 17 finishers so he at least beat a few decent horses home.
That run was clearly going to be needed from a fitness perspective and given that his last win came at Newbury, I am hoping his trainer was using it as a sharpener to put him right for a tilt at this race. Hales has his string in fine form, sending out two winners and two 2nds since Boxing Day. Like with The Kings Writ, keep stakes small on Fagan as it may just be that his best days are behind him. Conditions do look perfect for him today though so at 66s, back him e/w.
Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tip: Fagan e/w @ 66/1 (4 places)
2.32 Punchestown – Tara Handicap Hurdle (Grade B)
One of my old favourites goes in this race and as per usual, he is overpriced again. We have backed Bread and Butter a couple of times at Punchestown and he hasn’t let us down. Trained by Helen Markham, he loves the Kildare track and he will also enjoy the heavy ground there today. He has shaped nicely enough on his last two outings and I’d imagine this race has been the plan.
Last year he was sent off at just 9/2 for this contest and he ran a cracker in 2nd off 121. His career form figures at Punchestown at 19f to 20f since 2020 read 62P223 and he races off the same rating he had when 2nd here a year ago.
He will, as usual, be claimer ridden and hopefully, he doesn’t get there too soon like Aiden Kelly did last time out at Naas. In April he was only beat 4.75L behind Camprond over this C&D off 125 and he’s only finished out of the first four once on heavy ground in four previous runs. 33/1 is a crazy price about Bread and Butter, hopefully he can run another massive race.
Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tip: Bread And Butter e/w @ 33/1 NAP (5 Places)
3.00 Newbury – Challow Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
A refreshingly big field of 13 for this Grade 1 hurdle for the Novices. These races are always tough to read. A lot of them smashed the opposition in weak maiden hurdles last time out and it is hard to gauge what they actually achieved. Jamie Snowden runs two and the mount of stable jockey Gavin Sheehan, You Wear It Well, at least has a couple of bits of form that can be trusted.
On her rules debut she bumped into Mullenbeg, since a Listed bumper, maiden and dual handicap winner who is a decent animal. On her next start she beat Cillians Charm by 5L, a horse that has since got to within 7L of Ashroe Diamond, 3rd in Grade 1 novice hurdles behind Marine Nationale and Facile Vega the last twice.
Since going hurdling in October this daughter of Midnight Legend has won 2/2. A Worcester novice win on good was followed by an even easier win on soft, both at 16f. She is bred to improve for this step up to 20f and while Hermes Allen has the more glamorous profile, he has no form on testing ground. At odds of 18/1, You Wear It Well is the e/w selection.
Warwick and Newbury Saturday Tip: You Wear It Well e/w @ 18/1 NB (4 places)
3.35 Newbury – Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Not a race I can see much value in. Eyeofthescorpion is a consistent type but this is his first ever chase start as an 8yo so even odds of 33/1 are not big enough to tempt. He’d probably prefer better ground anyway. I think we have enough bets done for the day, so I’ll sit this one out. No bet.
