Warwick and Market Rasen Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
Warwick and Market Rasen Saturday ITV4 Racing Tips
12/1 shot Jackson Hill got us out of jail last Saturday under an inspired ride by Daryl Jacob. Prime Venture also nicked some place money but apart from that, it was tough going. Theinval shaped well but ran out of puff late on. Yggdrasil was still green but he did make some pleasing late progress. King of Realms ran no race and Summerville Boy was really disappointing too. Exod’ela was also poor while Imperial Aura fell early on. Dave Stevos is back in action tomorrow, check out his Warwick and Market Rasen Saturday tips and previews of all live ITV4 races below…
1.50 Warwick: Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
This race isn’t renowned for having lots of runners usually, but the turn out this year is particularly poor. Only three novice chasers will go to post for this 24f Grade 2 and Next Destination heads the market for Nicholls and Cobden. Nicholls is absolutely flying at the moment. He has fired in 9 winners from 34 runners in the last 2 weeks. Next Destination won last time out at Newbury (24f gd) on his chase debut and second start for Nicholls. The return to softer ground will pose no problems and this relatively lightly raced 9yo looks a worthy favourite.
Unlike Paul Nicholls, Colin Tizzard cannot buy a winner right now. It has been over 3 weeks since he last had one go in. Consequently, there has to be a worry about all of his runners at the moment. He will be praying that his string turns the corner soon. However, it is hard to be confident that Fiddlerontheroof will be the horse to change his luck. He is taking a complete step into the unknown trip wise and he failed to trouble the judge in two P2P starts over today’s distance.
Golan Fortune will give the jolly most to think about. Phil Middleton’s son of Golan ran a blinder last time in the G1 Kauto Star at Kempton. He was only 0.5L behind the 160 rated If The Cap Fits and he beat Fiddlerontheroof by 7L in October. The testing ground will suit Golan Fortune and he is proven at the trip. At the odds he is worth backing for the win in receipt of 5lb from the market leader.
Warwick and Market Rasen Saturday: Golan Fortune win @ 6/1
2.05 Market Rasen: Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
The heavy ground at Market Rasen is probably to blame for the poor turnout in this 16.5f handicap hurdle. Just 5 will go to post and it looks a very trappy heat. Edwardstone is the favourite for King and Sheehan. He will be hoping to make amends after unseating early on last time at Doncaster. He is one of the few horses in the field with form on heavy but both his wins came on good to soft. At the prices I would prefer to be on Oscars Leader.
Sean Quinlan rides this son of Oscar and he is trained by Jennie Candlish. The 8yo is a very consistent sort and he enjoys it when the mud is flying. He was beat 0.5L off 122 last month at Haydock (19f hvy) and today’s drop in trip should suit. Both his career wins came over 16/17f and his form figures on heavy read 412. At odds of 7/2 a small win bet is the order of the day.
Market Rasen Saturday Tip: Oscars Leader win @ 7/2
2.25 Warwick: Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
A dozen novice hurdlers will fight it out for honours in this 21f Grade 2. You could make a case for ten of them and the one I like at the prices is the only mare in the race, Pure Bliss. I am a big fan of her late sire Mount Nelson and this 6yo has looked a quality performer on her last two outings. She is unbeaten when completing and her only defeat came when she was pulled up after making a noise on heavy ground at Ascot. The wind op she had in the off season seems to have worked as she has won both starts this season quite comfortably.
On her return at Uttoxeter she took a couple of chances at her hurdles but she pulled away nicely at the finish over 15.5f (sft). Last time at Exeter she was better over the obstacles and she again pulled clear, this time on heavy over 18f. The extra 3f today should be right up her street and there are zero worries regarding the conditions for this former P2P winner. She has plenty of scope for further improvement and on this ground the weight for sex allowance she gets from the boys is a big advantage. Odds of 9/1 look more than fair and Pure Bliss is well worth backing e/w.
Warwick and Market Rasen Saturday: Pure Bliss e/w @ 9/1
2.40 Market Rasen: MansionBet Hurdle (Class 2)
This 23f Class 2 hurdle is restricted to horses that haven’t won a Grade 1 or 2 hurdle from 2020 onwards. Some old favourites will take their chances, including the likes of Lil Rockerfella, Mohaayed and Vision De Flos. On The Blind Side is the top rated in the race. He makes a quick reappearance a week after chasing home McFabulous at Kempton (21f sft). However, he would prefer better ground. He has never won on heavy and 4 of his 6 wins have come on good to soft.
The same sentiment applies to Lil Rockerfella. He has won 11 races on the flat and over jumps and there has been good in the ground description for all of those victories. Vision De Flos will enjoy conditions but it is impossible to fancy any Tizzard horses at the moment. Mohaayed has never won on heavy and his 4 attempts on it resulted in pretty comprehensive defeats.
Keeper Hill is another one that prefers better ground than he’ll encounter here. Even though he has little chance at the figures, Chidswell could sneak into the frame. He has been beaten in two chase starts this season, both on decent ground. He ran really well on his only previous start at Market Rasen and he is 2/3 on heavy ground. Brian Hughes has been placed thrice from three rides on him and he looks a good booking. I am hoping that some of the market leaders get stuck in the mud. If they do, Chidswell could sneak into the frame at odds of 40/1.
Warwick and Market Rasen Saturday: Chidswell e/w @ 40/1
Warwick and Market Rasen Saturday 3.00: Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
Bundles of stamina will be required for this gruelling 29f handicap chase and 13 are due go to post. The one I’ll be taking a chance on in the hope he has been laid out for the race is Petite Power. Fergal O’Brien trains this son of Subtle Power and he was 3rd in this race last season off 131. He is 12lb out of the weights today off 134 (rated 122) but Liam Harrison’s 7lb claim means he is effectively just 5lb wrong.
In last season’s renewal Petite Power was beat 17L but that doesn’t tell the full story. He was still within touching distance as they jumped the 4th last but he was nearly brought to a standstill by a faller. He actually stayed on really well in the circumstances and made up a huge amount of ground in the closing stages.
Hopefully the softer ground this year will slow down his rivals a bit. I don’t think a 7L gap to last year’s 2nd Captain Chaos is insurmountable given how badly our selection was hampered. Fergal O’Brien has had a fine season and he has a knack of getting the best out of older stayers, Perfect Candidate being the prime example. 25/1 looks huge with 5 places on offer and at those odds, Petite Power is the e/w NAP of the day.
Warwick Saturday Tips: Petite Power e/w @ 25/1 NAP (5 Places)
3.15 Market Rasen: Bumper (Listed)
I am not a fan of bumpers in general but this looks an intriguing race. Pam Sly is far from a household name but she has the favourite, the well named Eileendover. This mare has looked the real deal on her two starts so far. A 29L win at Huntingdon on debut (13f gd) was followed by a 16L win on soft at Wetherby (12.5f sft). This will be the furthest trip she has tackled. It will be the most testing ground she has encountered too. She is by Canford Cliffs so there has to be doubts about the suitability of the ground/trip but on the plus side, her half-brother won on heavy on the flat.
Her main market rival is Grangee who represents Irish trainer Willie Mullins. She made an impressive debut when hosing up at Galway back in October. That form has not worked out at all though and she is priced up on the reputation of her trainer rather than what she has actually achieved on the track. She could well prove up to this task but at the prices I’ll just be watching her today.
Port Looks Overpriced
At the odds it could be worth taking on the top two in the market with Chosen Port. In form Olly Murphy trains this well related daughter of Well Chosen and Aidan Coleman rides. She was snapped up for £110k by the Morans after a P2P win in March. She made a pleasing debut at Wetherby when beat 2L into 2nd on good to soft ground and the 4th home has won since. The softer ground here should suit this half-sister to Burton Port and with 3 places on offer from Paddy Power, at 14/1 Chosen Port is worth backing each way.
Warwick and Market Rasen Saturday: Chosen Port e/w @ 14/1 (3 places Paddy Power)
3.35 Warwick: Pertemps Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)
A 13 runner, 25f handicap hurdle closes the show on ITV4 this Saturday. The one I like at a decent each way price is Mr Harp for Thomas Gallagher and Jack Quinlan. This 8yo sneaks in off bottom weight after an emphatic win last time at Uttoxeter (23f hvy). He beat Saint Dalina by 3L off 115 and he was conceding 8lb to that rival. He is 3lb better off here and he can uphold that form at the very least. Prior to that win Mr Harp had only ever run on decent ground. While he was consistent, the switch to heavy ground seemed to spark a huge amount of improvement.
That was only the 6th start of his career, and his handicap debut, so there could still be more to come from the son of Court Cave. The worry is his relative lack of experience in comparison to some of his more seasoned rivals. But, judging by the manner of his win last time out, he could still be very well handicapped. He’ll need another hike in the ratings if he is to get a run in any of the big handicaps in the Spring so hopefully he’ll be doing his best today. At odds of 12/1 with 4 places on offer, Mr Harp is the e/w pick.
