Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips Dave Stevos
Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips and Preview
Our 14/1 NB Cool Mix was our only place last weekend. Pasvolsky ran a decent race but just missed out on place money. There is more top class jumping action on ITV4 this weekend with a couple of Graded races on both sides of the Irish Sea and some good (and not so good) handicaps. Check out our Wetherby and Ascot Saturday tips below.
1.20 Wetherby – Handicap Chase (Class 3)
A pretty trappy contests starts us off this Saturday at Wetherby. Thirteen will go to post for this 19.5F handicap chase and the ground is likely to be on the softer side of good. It isn’t the easiest of races to weigh up and it might be worth chancing one that has had a recent run. One that ticks that box at a decent price is Valence D’Aumont for Sue Smith and Ryan Mania.
This horse wears the same silks that were sported by Kalahari King back in the day. The 7yo son of Sinndar isn’t as talented as The King but he showed plenty of progression over fences last Spring. A three time winner in France, this horse goes on any ground. He got off the mark in the UK in February when winning at Sedgefield off 103 (16f sft). Valence D’Aumont then finished 2nd at Carlisle off 111 before winning two in a row off 112 and 117.
He is now back down to a mark of 119 after a poor run on his reappearance at Uttoxeter. The ground was blamed but in truth, he probably wasn’t as fit as they thought he was and the softish conditions exaggerated his lack of fitness. Hopefully he is sharper now and if he is, he could well resume his progression. At odds of 16/1, a small e/w interest is advised.
Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips: Valence D’Aumont e/w @ 16/1 (4 Places)
1.35 Ascot – Novices’ Handicap Chase (Class 3)
Just the seven will go to post for this 19f novices’ handicap chase and it looks wide open. Kid Commando is the favourite for Dingle and Honeyball. He is a talented horse when he is on it but he has failed to complete on two of his last three outings. Nassalam gets a weight for age allowance and he will be hoping that the forecast rain arrives overnight. Lord Baddesley has the benefit of a recent run but he usually goes well fresh. So, on reflection, it was a disappointing effort from him at Warwick.
Sizable Sam is a very interesting contender for Jeremy Scott. He ran well on his seasonal bow in 2020 and he has won three of his seven starts. He was pulled up last time out but it was a Grade 1 and he made a couple of jumping errors. However, he would prefer if the rain didn’t come. Sam Barton won’t mind if conditions soften and he is another one to look out for. This is not a betting race for me though and I’ll sit it out.
Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips: No Bet
1.55 Wetherby – Mares Hurdle (Listed)
Another relatively small field of seven for this 16f Listed Hurdle for the mares. Miranda landed a Grade 2 last season at Doncaster (16.5f sft). She heads the market for Nicholls and Cobden. This 145 rated daughter of Camelot was well beat in the Imperial Cup on her final start of last season but this should be more up her street. However, she needed a couple of runs to hit top form last season and she ran poorly on her return in 2019. So, at 9/4, she could be worth taking on.
Mollys Ollys Wishes is also rated 145 but she gets 2lbs from the fav. She won three in a row, including a Listed race, on soft ground last season and if the heavens open it will greatly enhance her prospects. Although she is only rated 133, Her Indoors could represent a bit of value against the top two. Alan King’s daughter of Raven’s Pass has had the benefit a pipe opener on the level. That was likely a prep run for this contest.
This filly’s only poor hurdling run last season came in the Fred Winter at Cheltenham. That run was sandwiched between a Listed win at Doncaster (16.5f sft) and a comfortable Grade 3 handicap win back at Cheltenham (17f gd) off 126. She shaped nicely enough at Nottingham and she has the potential to rate higher than her current mark over hurdles. At odds of 6/1, she may well reward e/w support.
Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips: Her Indoors e/w @ 6/1
2.10 Ascot – London Handicap Hurdle (Listed)
This is a cracking Listed Handicap Hurdle and thirteen have been declared. Some very promising sorts make their seasonal bows in this contest. Last year’s Betfair Hurdle hero Soaring Monarch went on to finish 4th in the Supreme and Tom Scudamore gets the leg up on him for the first time. He clearly has bundles of ability and he is a former course winner but he wouldn’t want it too soft. Especially with the weight he’ll be carrying in this competitive heat.
Boothill has a very different profile and he is edging favouritism for Fry and Twiston-Davies. Twice placed in points, he has scooted home in both rules starts. He landed a bumper at Kempton (16f gd/sft) and a Novice Hurdle at Taunton (16f gd/sft). He certainly falls into the ‘could be anything’ category but like Soaring Monarch, soft ground is a worry.
Well Treated
With the weather forecast we have, I think it’s worth taking a punt on one at a big price that needs soft ground. I like Miss Heritage as a horse and she’ll relish any rain. However, she might just need some help from the handicapper. Mcgroarty is in off 120 and he could go well if the rain comes off a feather weight with Sean Houlihan claiming 3lbs. This fella has been campaigned in France since being claimed out of Richard Newland’s by the Leeches.
He has been mixing chasing and hurdling and he has been running well over the smaller obstacles. His last hurdle run came in an Auteuil Listed Handicap and he ran a cracker to finish 2nd. It is hard to get a handle on that form but two starts before that he finished 2nd behind Doctor Dex in a conditions race at Nancy. That would suggest he can be competiive off his current mark. His last two chase starts have not gone to plan but if the ground turns proper soft, Mcgroarty could outrun his odds of 50/1 returned to hurdling.
Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips: Mcgroarty e/w @ 50/1 (5 Places W Hill)
2.30 Wetherby – Bet365 Hurdle (Grade 2)
The first Graded race of the day is the G2 bet365 Hurdle. 24f awaits the field of eight and it’s a quality affair. Former Stayers’ Hurdle hero Paisley Park will be looking to bounce back after a poor run at Aintree last time. This son of Oscar was a very consistent horse in his pomp but he has been a bit hit and miss in recent times. He is still top class on his day though and he goes well fresh. If he even runs to 90% of his true ability that should be enough to win this.
Olly Murphy’s horses are in fine fettle and he runs Thomas Darby here. He ran a cracker when last sighted in the 24f G1 at Aintree. The son of Beneficial is clearly a talented sort but he is has been expensive to follow. He has run well without winning on his last two seasonal comebacks and a similar fate could await him today. Master Tommytucker was chasing last season and he ended up rated 160. He is rated 8lbs lower over timber and this is his first start over the smaller obstacles since 2018. The trip is a worry though as he hasn’t ever won beyond 22f.
Dillon Could Be Dangerous
The Irish raider Run For Oscar has done his winning over shorter too but he looks well worth a crack at this trip on the evidence of his Killarney win. Soft ground wouldn’t help his cause though. At the prices, Ask Dillon could be worth a small investment each way. Fergal O’Brien’s horses continue to run well and Liam Harrison is reunited with this fella after Paddy Brennan rode on his seasonal comeback. Ask Dillon jumped poorly at times in that Novices’ Chase and it is no surprise to see him reverting to hurdling.
This son of Ask has won on all sorts of ground and he won’t mind a drop of rain. Good to soft ground would be preferable but he has winning form on softer. On his last start over timber he won a class 2 handicap at Cheltenham off 144 (24f gd). It is hard to see him beating Paisley Park but if he produces his best he is more than capable of running into a place. At odds of 22/1, Ask Dillon is worth taking a chance on each way.
Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips: Ask Dillon e/w @ 22/1
2.45 Ascot – Handicap Chase (Listed)
Once the forecast rain comes, Monsieur Lecoq could surprise with a big run for Jane Williams and Ciaran Gethings. This 7yo son of Diamond Boy is at his best when the mud is flying. He was a decent hurdler, winning three races and achieving a rating of 150. It took him a while to get the hang of chasing last season but once he did, he put in some solid efforts. In February he finished 20L behind One For Rosie at Leicester (16f hvy) in receipt of 5lbs and he is a stone better off with him today so he should be able to finish closer.
He then went on to win over the same C&D by 8.5L, beating The Mulcair and Needhams Gap. That’s the last time he had his ground but he did sign off for the season with a decent effort behind Mill Green at Ffos Las (16f gd/sft). A spin over hurdles at Leicester should have sharpened him up nicely ahead of this return to chasing. Ciaran Gethings takes the ride with Chester Williams over in France riding Balko Saint. Monsieur Lecoq has run well here over timber before (2nd off 150 on heavy). At odds of 22/1, he could go well off 132 if the weather forecast is correct.
Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips: Monsieur Lecoq e/w @ 22/1 NAP (4 Places W Hill)
2.50 Down Royal – Champion Chase (Grade 1)
Just the five will fight it out for Grade 1 glory in this years’ Ladbrokes Champion Chase. Gold Cup hero Minella Indo is favourite to add another big prize to his trophy cabinet. The trip and ground both look perfect for him but he has been beaten on two of his last three seasonal returns. He did win a G3 on his first run back last season but this is an awful lot tougher. Connections will be treating this race as a stepping stone towards the Spring and while his class might see him through, he wouldn’t be one I’d be lumping on at evens.
Frodon was no match for Minella Indo at Cheltenham but over this trip, he could put it up to him. Three miles is the King George winner’s optimal trip and he has won two of his last three starts. He is a slick jumper, he has a big heart and Bryony Frost gets some tune out of him. It wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if he gave Paul Nicholls a fifth win in this contest.
Galvin Lacks Speed
Galvin is a winning machine and he’ll be looking to complete a seven timer today. He is obviously a good horse but I’m not convinced he is a Grade 1 animal. I think he is an out and out stayer and I’m not sure he has the speed to deal with the best of these. His biggest win came over 30f at Cheltenham in March and he could be one for extreme distances later in the season. Don’t be surprised if he pitches up at Aintree for the Big One.
The big controversy this week was the news that Jack Kennedy was not allowed to ride Minella Indo. Instead, he has to ride Delta Work for his boss. This horse has basically been disappointing since he won at Leopardstown last February. He has been beaten by at least 6L on three of his last four starts and he was pulled up in the other one. He is impossible to have confidence in right now but if he can rediscover his form he is talented enough to feature. However, this is another race I’ll be just watching. Galvin is too short but the rest look priced up correctly so I’ll give it a miss. No Bet.
Down Royal Saturday Tips: No bet
3.05 Wetherby – Charlie Hall Chase (Grade 2)
Another frustratingly small field of seven for those who like an each way play. Last year’s winner Cyrname is back to defend his crown. However, the enigmatic son of Nickname has been pulled up the last twice and his form figures have become more alphabetical than numerical (F1PP). Can he win? Of course he can, but you couldn’t be backing him with any confidence given his last two performances.
Fusil Raffles isn’t exactly the most reliable of horses either. His standout effort came last season when he was placed at Cheltenham behind Chantry House. However, he then went on to be pulled up at Aintree. Nicky Henderson’s charge should strip fitter for his comeback run at Newton Abbott and if he stays this trip (and doesn’t throw in a stinker) he is capable of hitting the frame.
Course Specialist
Shan Blue won a G1 Novice in December 2020 at Kempton but he hasn’t backed it up. He does like it here though and he is another one that could figure on a going day. However, the one I’ll be backing is Top Ville Ben. Phil Kirby’s bold jumping son of Beneficial is lightly raced in recent seasons. In fact, this will be just his third run since he hacked up over C&D in the Rowland Meyrick off 154 in December 2019. He suffered a hairline fracture which meant he missed this race last season. He is back fit now and if he is still the same horse, he could run a huge race.
Top Ville Ben has had four chase runs at Wetherby and he won three of them by a combined distance of 91L. That Rowland Meyrick win was mightily impressive and if he is in that sort of form, he could easily win this. This race has been his target for some time and if he is going to win a Graded Chase, this is by far the most likely one due to his affinity for this track. At odds of 18/1, Top Ville Ben is the each way pick.
Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips: Top Ville Ben e/w @ 18/1
3.20 Ascot – London Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3)
This race is an absolute minefield. Vinndication is the 3/1 favourite dropping back in Grade. He is 7lbs higher than when winning this in 2018 and he was beat fair and square at The Festival off 159 in 2020. He unseated on his only handicap start since. The assessor has only dropped him to 158 and it is hard to argue that he is well treated. He does run well fresh though and this may be the time to catch him.
With the rain that is forecast, I think Mister Malarky could be worth supporting each way. His last win came over this C&D off 150 in December 2020 on heavy. His best run since came at Kempton when he was beat just 4L under today’s pilot off 155 at Kempton. Colin Tizzard’s inmate’s two subsequent runs have not gone to plan but one of those was in the Grand National. He was entitled to need his comeback at Chepstow three weeks ago.
The handicapper has dropped him to 151 and with Harry Kimber’s claim he is effectively 6lbs lower than he was when winning here in 2020. The 8yo son of Malinas handles all sorts of ground and he is a two time Ascot winner. Eleven of his rivals haven’t had a run yet this season and with a couple of firms paying 5 places, Mister Malarky is a hppeful rather than confident each way selection in a wide open race.
Wetherby and Ascot Saturday Tips: Mister Malarky e/w @ 22/1 (5 Places Betfair)
3.40 Wetherby – Bet365 Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)
Things don’t get any easier in the final live race of the day. This class 3 handicap hurdle will be contested by fourteen horses and a genuine case could be made for half of them. The one I like at a nice e/w price is Eviscerating for Sara Ender and Nathan Moscrop. This 9yo son of Court Cave ran a blinder here back in March when beat 5L into 2nd off 121. His last two runs have been well below that level but he has had a wind op since so he may have had respiratory issues.
Every cloud has a silver lining and the handicapper dropped him 6lbs for those two poor efforts. His good run here came after a 486 day absence so the lack of a recent run isn’t a worry. On his first run for Ender he was beat 0.75L off 127 at Hexham (20f sft) so he is looking dangerously well handicapped now off 115. Ground ranging from good to soft to soft is perfect and he has placed course form. Unlike a lot of his rivals, this race is probably his target and at odds of 18/1, hopefully he hits the bullseye.
