World Matchplay Darts Final Preview

James Punt got back on track on semi-finals night. Two of his three bets won, hopefully we can bring the momentum into tonight. Check out James’ World Matchplay Darts Final preview and tips below.

Gerwyn Price vs. Michael van Gerwen

The two big rivals have made the final. Price came here not in great form and MVG coming back after a long lay-off. They were not my idea of the finalists, but they are two of the big beasts, World Champions and multiple major winners, so it is no great surprise.

Price has yet to win this title and he will want to add it to his collection. MVG hasn’t won it since 2016.

Price On Form

Gerwyn Price is averaging 101.27 for the tournament and he is playing very well. He beat Danny Noppert comfortably last night, scoring well and good on his favourite double. Van Gerwen wasn’t quite at his best against Van den Bergh, averaging 98.9 with 34% on the doubles.

It was a 17-14 in the end, but he was 1-4 down at the first break, 4-6 at the second. Dimitri looked to be taking control at 12-9 and 13-10 but from 13-14 down MVG won the last three legs with legs of 13,14 and 13 dart legs. He was never in the lead until leg 29 but saw his chance and took it.

Gezzy Edges Recent H2H

Their H2H record is 25-8 to Van Gerwen but in 2022 it is 3-2 to Price and 8-7 to Price in their last 15. It took Price 20 matches against MVG until he finally beat him, but since then he has had the edge, just. They have only met in two major finals, the 2019 Players Championship finals which MVG won 11-9 and the 2020 UK Open final which again, MVG won 11-9. Price will be desperate to finally get a major final win over Van Gerwen.

The Iceman is the 1.75 favourite, MVG 2.25. Price is a better player even than in 2019 while MVG’s stock has fallen. That said, this season he has won the Premier League, three Euro tour titles and two players championships. Price has won a Euro tour title and a player’s championship.

Lost Mojo

Price had lost his mojo during the Premier League. It is an event he really doesn’t like and now that is out of the way, he should return to his usual level of form, which has been the case this week. He was injured for quite a while as well so there are excuses for his loss of form so far this year. MVG had been suffering with a wrist problem and he took a month out to recover from surgery, so coming back and reaching a final on his first outing is impressive.

Price has played the better darts so far, averaging 101.27 to MVG’s 96.88 but MVG started slowly while Price has been on it from the start.

Hard to Call

It is hard to call the winner. I would say that there is some value in Van Gerwen, he has been the better player in 2022 and he has had the better of Price in big finals, so far. That said, Price is playing better. The match result isn’t a great betting proposition.

Looking at past finals for some inspiration, there is a trend for short matches, there have been very few close finals. In the last ten, eight have been under 31.5 legs and in eight of the last nine, just one required extra time. Half of the last ten have seen under 28.5 legs. It is not like you get many mismatches at this level, so I’ll go with the historic trend once again. Since the format was a first to 18 leg final, there has only been five finals over 31.5 legs in twenty five years (3 in the last 23 years).

World Matchplay Darts Final Tip: 2 points under 31.5 legs @ 2.00 with Betfred, SpreadEx

A shorter final would impact on the 180s hit. They are hitting at a combined rate of 0.694 so we should be looking at something under 21.5 maximums, but with best odds of 1.44 under 21.5 180’s there is no value there.

-JamesPunt