York and Newmarket Saturday Preview and Tips – DS
York and Newmarket Saturday Tips
Friday was a day to remember. Broken Spear shaped well before fading and Hougoumont was too keen. Alseyoob also looked like challenging but her effort petered out. Rumstar was well backed and won for us at 16s. Accidental Rebel was given a great ride and also won at 14s. Tagline (NAP) ran a cracker to place at 25s, as did Misty Grey. Flamborough got no clear run until too late but still nicked a place at 18s. Hopefully things go equally as well today, Dave Stevos’ York and Newmarket Saturday tips are below.
1.50 Newmarket – Zetland Stakes (Group 3)
The clear form pick here is Godolphin’s Flying Honours. Trained by Charlie Appleby, this son of Sea The Stars went close in a four runner G2 a fortnight ago. He was sent off the 2/7 fav in that 8f contest after a couple of impressive wins in a Sandown Novice and a Salisbury Listed. You could forgive him his latest defeat seeing as it came in such a small field and he should be seen to better effect here with a stronger pace likely.
At bigger odds, maybe Band Of Steel can outrun his price of 20/1. Trained by Shaun Woods, this son of Golden Horn broke his maiden at the third attempt at Wolverhampton last month. He made all for a very comfortable near 4L win and while it was an ordinary race, he could do no more than beat what was in front of him.
The assessor handed him a mark of 85 for that win. The fav is rated 108 so clearly, he’ll need to improve a big chunk but that is possible on his first run on decent ground. His sole turf start to date came on soft and he didn’t like it. Golden Horn’s progeny have a far better strike rate on good or better and the fact that Woods has booked Ryan Moore to ride is eye-catching. He is 1/3 for Woods with another 2nd, hopefully he can improve on that strike rate on Band Of Steel.
York and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Band Of Steel e/w @ 20/1
2.05 York – Rockingham Stakes (Listed)
The strategy that can sometimes pay in these Listed contests is finding a horse that will be ridden to pick up some black type rather than to win. Both Rousing Encore and Bolt Action have already earned black type so you’d imagine they’ll both be there to win. Alpha Capture was just denied by Cold Case in a big Donny sales race last time and he franked that form in no uncertain terms when hacking up in a Listed heat at Redcar next time.
Penny Dropped
They are the three most obvious ones, but that’s reflected in their odds. If there is one horse in here that’ll be desperate for black type of any description, it is Mehme. This filly showed ability on her first two starts without troubling the places. However, the penny has dropped the last twice and she has landed a Novice at Salisbury (6f) and a class 2 handicap at Newmarket (7f). That handicap win came off 77 and she comes into this race rated 80.
Now, that leaves her with loads to find but she could improve again. For breeding purposes, black type would be huge as she is a full sister to the promising sire Mehmas. On the evidence of her last run this drop back to 6f should suit and I’d imagine Martin Harley will be told to ride her cold and try to come late to finish 3rd. After her last run Jamie Spencer said she’d like an easier surface and she gets that today. She isn’t one for maximum stakes but at 33s, a small e/w interest is advised.
York and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Mehme e/w @ 33/1
2.25 Newmarket – Autumn Stakes (Group 3)
A poor turnout of just six and a race I am more than happy to swerve. Holloway Boy has solid form and he shouldn’t be far away again Epictetus showed lots of potential when winning on debut and he could be anything. Silver Knott came up short in G2 company on soft last time but back on a sounder surface and back down in Grade, he has an obvious chance. Dancing Magic could go well at a half decent price but with just two places on offer, keep the powder dry. No bet.
York and Newmarket Saturday Tips: No Bet
2.40 York – Coral Handicap (Class 2)
Another disappointing turnout for this 10f handicap. I have no strong opinion on it and it’s another no bet race.
York and Newmarket Saturday Tips: No Bet
3.00 Newmarket – Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1)
Only seven runners but with a few firms paying 3 places, I’ll be having a bet. Nostrum heads the market at around 7/4 for Stoute and Kingscote. By Kingman, this colt is 2/2. He beat a decent yardstick in Holloway Boy last time in a C&D G3. It was a small field and a tactical affair but he did it well and this could turn out to be a similar sort of contest.
Juddmonte also run Chaldean. Frankie rides for Andrew Balding and this horse is improving rapidly. He has won his last three, a novice, a G3 and then a G2 last time. He is actually rated 3lbs superior to the fav and 7/2 looks a fair price for the son of Frankel.
A Bit To Find
Naval Power is by one of my favourite sires in Teofilo. He is 4/4 so far, including a couple of Listed contests. It is a bit of a worry that he is only stepping into Group company now though and he has a bit to find to trouble the top two.
Aesop’s Fables ran below form last time on his first try at G1 level. However, it was soft and he previously hacked up in a 7F G2 at the Curragh on good. Is the son of No Nay Never Aidan O’Brien’s best 2yo? Probably not, but it is always folly to write off any horse coming over from Ballydoyle.
Best Of The Rest
Of the remainder, Isaac Shelby landed a G2 last time on the July course. He had a head to spare over Victory Dance but he hasn’t been seen since that win in July. The horse he beat into 2nd was well behind Nostrum subsequently so he will need to improve a fair bit.
On a line through Holloway Boy, Marbaan has very little to find with the fav here. He beat that horse by 0.5L on his penultimate start at Goodwood (7f gd). How he is 25/1 here is puzzling. Yes, he flopped on soft ground last time out but he is 3/4 on good or quicker. Every time I tip a horse that Jamie Spencer is riding, they seem to finish last but on form, this horse cannot be discounted. Hopefully the Spencer hex doesn’t strike again today because Marbaan is the e/w selection at 25/1.
York and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Marbaan e/w @ 25/1 (3 places) NB
3.15 York – Coral Sprint Trophy Handicap (Class 2)
After a bit of a quiet spell, David and Nicola Barron’s horses are back in form. They’ve had two winners and a 2nd from their last five runners and they send out Zarzyni in this competitive 6f handicap. His last three runs have been poor but they came when the yard was under a cloud. The one positive to take is that the handicapper has generously dropped him back to a mark of 99.
That means that the son of Siyouni is now back on his last winning mark. That came at Musselburgh in April, the last time he had a bit of ease in the ground. He followed that up with an excellent effort in a G3 at Newmarket before running a huge race in a hot Ascot handicap off 104. He was only beat 1.5L for the win that day so he looks very fairly handicapped now off 99.
The Barrons have enlisted the services of Ben Coen for the ride. He has had two rides at York before and he won on one of them. On his last start at 6f Zarzyni was only beat 5l off 104 in the Ayr Gold Cup and the step back up to this trip will suit. If Coen can thread a clear passage, hopefully Zarzyni can finish fast for each way money at odds of 33/1.
York and Newmarket Saturday Tips: Zarzyni e/w @ 33/1 (6 places)
3.40 Newmarket – Cesarewitch Handicap (Class 2)
As long as my eyes haven’t been deceiving me, I think Bascule has been laid out for this race. Trained by Richard Hughes, this son of Kendargent has been shaping very nicely without managing to hit the frame this season. His last win came on the all weather last December where he beat Marshall Plan by a nose off 87. He is 5lbs higher today but on the evidence of his run in the trial for this race three weeks ago, he is well capable of winning off that mark.
The 4yo finished 5th off 90 in that race but he should have finished a lot closer. The amount of traffic problems he found was remarkable in a ten runner race and it looked to me like they didn’t want to blow his handicap mark by getting a penalty for winning. Once he found daylight he ran on really well and he was only 4.75L behind Rajinksy at the finish.
It was a very similar story on his return to action at Goodwood (14f gd/fm) in July. In that race Rooke again found all sorts of trouble and while Bascule only finished 7th, he was only 3.5L off the winner and 2L off a place. Surely Hughes will release the handbrake today and if he does, I think Bascule is going to run a massive race at odds of 40/1.
