York Ebor Festival Friday Tips by Dave Stevos
York Ebor Festival Friday Tips
After a bright start on Wednesday it was a lot tougher for us on Thursday. Vertiginous ran a massive race but just got touched off for a place. Adeb was always on the back foot and never got into the race. Young Fire was ridden more forward than usual and faded late. Loving Dream got badly outpaced before staying on late and she probably wants a longer trip. Let’s hope we get back on track on Nunthorpe Day. Check out Dave Stevos’ York Ebor Festival Friday tips below.
1.50 – Sky Bet Handicap (Class 2)
A nice and easy start to the day with this 18 runner 12f handicap. The Queen’s horse, Wink Of An Eye, is the 9/2 fav. The gelded son of Dubawi has won four in a row and his mark has risen from 70 to 91. He had a neck to spare last time off 87 at Goodwood (11f gd/sft) and connections will be hoping this extra furlong ekes out a bit more improvement. One that looks interesting at a bigger price is Scarlet Dragon for Alan King and Tom Marquand.
This former course winner ran better than his finishing position suggests last time at Haydock. He was denied a clear run a couple of times and if he had got a clearer passage I think he definitely would have finished in the money. The handicapper generously dropped him 2lbs for that run to a mark of 98. That is just 1lb higher than the mark he won off at Ascot in June 2020 (12f sft).
The ground may have been on the easy side for his last win but he doesn’t need it soft. He has won a total of 8 races during his career and seven have come on ground with good in the description. Tom Marquand comes in for the ride and he has placed on this son of Sir Percy a couple of times before. His course win came over 10f on good off 92 and he’s been badly handicapped for each of his other visits to York. At odds of 14/1, Scarlet Dragon is worth backing each way for 6 places.
York Ebor Festival Friday Tips: Scarlet Dragon e/w @ 14/1 (6 places)
2.25 – Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2)
It may be a small field for this 16.5f Group 2 but what it lacks in quantity, it makes up for in quality. Just 4lbs separates the top three in the market, Stradivarius (121), Trueshan (118) and Spanish Mission (117). Stratum is a classy stayer on his day too and he is rated 112 while The Grand Visir looks to be up against it with a rating of just 102. The bookies make Stradivarius the 5/4 favourite. Now a 7yo, the son of Sea The Stars came unstuck at Ascot last time out (20f gd/fm). The one time winning machine has tasted defeat on 4 of his last 5 starts and it looks like his best days may be behind him.
Connections of Trueshan have reportedly been sighted performing multiple rain dances around York the last couple of days. They believe he needs it soft to have a chance in this but once there is no firm in the ground, he should be fine. He has won two of his three starts on good ground and he won’t run if conditions are too quick.
On A Mission
Spanish Mission is the other one with solid claims. He finished ahead of Stradivarius at Ascot last time and his last visit to York yielded a G2 win in a similarly small field to today’s. Both he and Stradivarius get 3lbs from Trueshan and that could make a big difference.
Stratum outran his odds of 20/1 when an excellent 2nd in this race last year. That was a clear career best on the level for the 8yo son of Dansili and if he repeated that form, he is the most likely source of an upset. However, if they all run to form it is hard to see past the top three in the market and they are all priced up about right. This is a race to just watch and enjoy, no bet for me.
York Ebor Festival Friday Tips: No bet
3.00 – Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2)
This is a 6f Group 2 for 2yo colts and geldings and it looks a superb renewal. Lusail and Berkshire Shadow are at the top of the market for Hannon and Balding respectively. Both have already won at this level and they hold obvious claims. However, the horse I’ll be taking a chance on in this is Gis A Sub. We backed this horse last time out at Goodwood (6f gd/sft). He had previously won the Spindrifter at Pontefract (6f gd), making all in what has turned out to be a very strong race.
He finished 0.5l ahead of Hellomydarlin, subsequently 3rd in a French G2 and a close 3rd off 98 at this meeting on Wednesday. Sam Maximus was nearly 2L behind and he was only 0.5l behind Lusail in the July Stakes on his next outing. It is proper form and I expected to see him make a bold bid upped in class at Goodwood.
Strange Ride
This horse attempted to make all on his first two runs. When he broke well at Goodwood I was licking my lips in anticipation of a bold show but inexplicably, Kevin Stott took a big pull and instead of trying to make all, he sat in behind the leaders. Gis A Sub clearly didn’t appreciate this change of tactics and he pulled very hard early on because he wanted to go faster.
It was no surprise to see his effort petering out in the closing stages given how the early part of the race unfolded but he was still only 2.75L behind the winner Asymmetric at the finish. This horse is entered up in all the right races and I am expecting to see a much improved performance today. On a line through Sam Maximus he has nothing to find with Lusail and if Kevin Stott allows him to go forward, Gis A Sub is more than capable of reaching the frame in this at odds of 20/1.
York Ebor Festival Friday Tips: Gis A Sub e/w @ 20/1 NAP
3.35 – Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1)
A cracking conclusion to the live action on ITV on Friday with the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes. This unique sprint is open to horses of all ages. The last 2yo to win was Kingsgate Native back in 2007 and Chipotle represents the younger generation today. Hollie Doyle takes the ride and he carries very little weight but on all known form, he looks well up against it. The bookies just about favour Suesa and you couldn’t blame them. She looked an extremely speedy filly when scooting home at Goodwood and this better ground could suit her even more.
Her main market rival is American raider Golden Pal. The Coolmore owned son of Uncle Mo is trained by Wesley Ward and Frankie rides. This fella was runner up in the Norfolk last season and he is unbeaten in three runs since. His sole start this term came in a G3 at Saratoga and he hacked up by 3L. As ever, weighing up his form isn’t easy but there is no doubt that this colt possesses plenty of speed.
Solid Course Form
One that could go well at a big price in this is Moss Gill. Trained by Ed Bethell, this progressive sprinter loves it at York. His form figures here read 221132 with the 3rd coming in this contest last season behind Battaash. He has had two runs since returning from Meydan and they have both been excellent efforts. He was beat a neck by King’s Lynn in a Listed heat at Haydock (5f gd/sft) and then he finished just 1L behind Winter Power in another Listed heat over today’s C&D.
Moss Gill was conceding 7lbs to that rival on that occasion and he is 2lbs better off today. Those two runs should have left him spot on for this race and Bethell has likely had the Nunthorpe in mind as his seasonal target ever since his superb effort in it last season. A rating of 108 leaves him with a bit to find but I think he is capable of running to 115 or maybe even 116. It will require a career best to win today but this son of No Nay Never is still only a 5yo and there could yet be more improvement to come. He loves the track, he’ll relish the ground and at odds of 25/1, he looks a cracking e/w bet.
