2019 Abu-Dhabi GP Tips Preview

Last weekend was a good one for us with Max Verstappen getting the job done. James Punt advised him to win the Brazilian GP at 4.00 and he never looked in danger. Unfortunately some of our ante-post bets hit the skids, but at least Max softened the blow. This weekend is the final Grand Prix of the season and James Punt has written an in-depth pre-race preview. Check out his 2019 Abu-Dhabi GP tips below…

Chaos in Brazil

It was another entertaining Brazilian GP last time out, but the chaotic finish ended up costing us dear. We had two max strength pre-season ante post bets, one of which was McLaren not to score a podium finish. Brazil was the penultimate race and the bet was looking good, until Vettel decided to try a bit of wheel to wheel racing with his teammate. We all know just how poor Vettel is at wheel to wheel racing and he was up to his usual trick of not being to pull a move off cleanly and he took both Ferraris’ out of the race.

There was still no podium for McLaren but that was to come in the steward’s office after the race. Lewis Hamilton had made a clumsy last lap lunge on the Red Bull of Albon which cost Albon his debut podium. Hamilton finished third and took the podium presentation. The stewards then decided to give Hamilton a 5 second penalty. That dropped him to 7th and promoted the McLaren of Sainz to 3rd place.

You would not have been paid out had you backed Sainz for a podium. This is because the race result is declared at the point of the podium presentation. However, for season bets, any subsequent penalties etc, do count.

This second kick in the teeth follows the max bet on Williams not to score a point in 2019. Again, the one point they have ‘scored’ came as a result of both Alfa Romeo drivers being given post-race 30 second penalties for illegal driver aids in the rain affected German GP. That allowed Kubica to be promoted to 10th place in the steward’s office, post-race. Alfa Romeo appealed but that appeal was rejected.

Always finding new ways to lose.

2019 Abu-Dhabi GP Tips: Slow Corners GALORE

We now move on the last race of the season and the rather dull Yas Marina circuit in Abu Dhabi. It is a purpose-built facility with the race starting at dusk and finishing under lights. The track features two long straights running into slow corners which does allow limited overtaking opportunities. However, it isn’t renowned as being a great racing venue. The main feature of the track are the 21 corners, many of which are slow.

Yas Marina has been the happiest of hunting grounds for Mercedes in the turbo hybrid era. They have had five front row lockouts and five wins. Crushingly dull. Lewis Hamilton has won four times overall and had four pole positions. Bottas has one win and one pole but only one other podium back in his Williams days.

Bottas is unlikely to add to that win here as he faces a grid penalty for fitting an all new power unit. That means he will start from the back of the grid. Obviously, with this being the last race of the season he will be able to run that power unit at full tilt as he will not have to use it again. However, giving the rest of the top 6 drivers such a head start means he is likely to be racing for 6th place.

Ferrari have never won a race in Abu Dhabi, but they have been getting closer with two third places and a second in the last three years. Red Bull have not won in the turbo hybrid era, and Verstappen’s 3rd place last year was their best since Vettel won for them in 2013.  

2019 Abu-Dhabi GP tips: Racing Point Do Well Here

Of the midfield teams, Racing Point has always scored well here in the turbo hybrid era. They scored four consecutive double points finishes up until last year when they had an eighth place and a retirement. Renault have had a car in 6th place for the last two years with the other car retiring. Toro Rosso are pointless in the last five seasons here, Alfa Romeo/Sauber had their first points here last year when Leclerc was seventh. Haas scored their only points here last year with a double points finish.

Once again it looks like the big three teams are playing amongst themselves with the others looking for minor points only.

Mercedes must start favourite given their great track record. Hamilton has gone well here in the past but not always been the top Mercedes driver. Losing to Rosberg once and Bottas once. Hamilton’s form since the summer break has tailed off. Not a single pole position and just two wins from eight races. Bottas got one pole position and two race wins.

2019 Abu-Dhabi GP Tips: Pole Position Vital

Their relative lack of qualifying performance is a problem for them. There has been just the one win from outside the front row in Abu Dhabi and in the last four years, the winner has started on pole. Mercedes have been able to win races from outside of pole position thanks to better strategy and just being more race savvy, certainly more so than Ferrari. However, we now have Red Bull more to the fore and Mercedes will find it harder to fight on two fronts rather than just one.

Verstappen was the fastest qualifier in Mexico and Brazil. The Honda power unit has now closed the gap to Mercedes, and is closer to Ferrari. That should allow them to be competitive on the longs straights and their car is usually strong in slow sectors as well. Ferrari say they have almost closed the performance gap to Red Bull in the slow corners and that, combined with the two straights here, means we should expect Ferrari to be in the mix, for pole position at least.

The Red Bulls where flattered by racing at altitude in Mexico and Brazil and that advantage will not be with them at sea level.

Big Three Will Likely Dominate…But in What Order?

It is not a clear-cut picture. Mercedes have a fantastic track record, but this season has seen their qualifying performance surpassed by Ferrari and now Red Bull when conditions suit. This track rewards pole position thanks to the difficulty overtaking so Mercedes are likely to be on the back foot come the start of the race.

That hasn’t stopped them at other tracks, but it will be a challenge here. Ferrari should be favourite for pole position which should make them favourite to win the race, but we have seen how accomplished they are at minimising their potential. And then we have Red Bull. They have not done particularly well here and have only won three races this season. Their car should be good on the track but maybe not as good as they were in Brazil.

It is perhaps worth baring in mind that Charles Leclerc took a grid penalty in Brazil in order to have a brand-new internal combustion engine fitted. This is the last race of the season and he will be able to thrash it, no need to look after it for the next few races. He has had seven pole positions this season and in five of the last eight races. He drove very well here last year, finishing seventh for Sauber.

It is always a risk backing a Ferrari as they are their own worst enemy but if he can get his qualifying mojo back that, fresh engine might just give him the edge in a tricky puzzle.

2019 Abu-Dhabi GP Tips: 2 points Charles Leclerc to win the Abu Dhabi GP @ 4.00 with Ladbrokes, Coral, Unibet

Qualifying has been made more confusing thanks to Bottas’ power unit change. Normally in this situation, with the driver guaranteed to start from the back off the grid, he wouldn’t bother doing anything more than one timed lap in Q1. That was to save mileage on the power units. With no more races, there is no need to save on mileage, but neither is there much point in going for pole if you can’t start there. He can save fresh tyres for the race by going out in Q1, so it is a bit of a gamble to think that he will be going for a meaningless pole position.

Bottas Backed For Pole

Bottas’ odds for being the fastest qualifier have been cut which suggests somebody thinks Bottas will be going flat out for pole. I tend to think not. He could push too far and damage the car; he will use up more new tyres and to what end? An ego trip? He has scored five pole positions this season but only one in the last ten races. He is getting a brand-new power unit, not an upgraded one. Will a fresh, existing spec power unit running at full pelt, be enough to match the power of Ferrari? Probably not.

Hamilton has not been on pole in the last nine races, Bottas once, Vettel once, Verstappen three times (one was rescinded) and Leclerc four. Leclerc’s qualifying performance has tailed off a little in recent races. He was just 4th in Brazil, with teammate Vettel 2nd, the same was the case in the US GP. In the last four races Vettel has beaten Leclerc three times.

Vettel arrived late in Abu Dhabi this weekend thanks to him attending the birth of his third child. That good news story might help lift his mood after the disastrous collision between the two Ferrari’s in Brazil. Vettel did have two pole positions before the turbo Hybrid era and he must have a decent chance of doing so again.

Ferrari Could Have A Field Day

Red Bull are relying on Verstappen to lead their qualifying challenge. He has been fastest qualifier three times this year, two at high altitude circuits and the other on the sinuous Hungaroring. He doesn’t have the altitude this weekend but there are enough slow corners to think that the Red Bull is not entirely out of the picture.

Mercedes are the 2.55 favourite to have one of their cars on pole, Ferrari 2.62 and Red Bull 4.00. Mercedes are so short based on past form, not recent form. They have lost their traditional dominance in qualifying especially since the summer break. They have had just one in the last nine races, one between the two drivers, and they are 2.55 favourites.

I rate recent form much higher than historic form and on recent form, Ferrari should be favourite. Which driver is the hard part? Vettel has had a bit of an upturn in his qualifying form, Leclerc a little dip, but he has been the winning most Ferrari driver when it comes to pole positions. It could be either so we will just back the team.

2019 Abu-Dhabi GP Tips: 2 points Ferrari to have the qualifying winning car @ 2.62 with William Hill, BET365

Back in the midfield the obvious driver to watch is Perez in the Racing Point. He is on a run of six consecutive points finishes here and seven of the last eight races this season. He is a generous 1.75 with Sportingbet to continue those runs. The obvious problem is that the Racing Point car is a bit of a dog in qualifying. Perez averages 13.55 in qualifying, the 5th worst record this season. It doesn’t stop him in the races and it hardly seems to matter where he starts. I suggest we back him now and if he has another mare in qualifying and his odds get bigger, we back him again.

2019 Abu-Dhabi GP Tips: 3 points Sergio Perez to finish in the points @ 1.75 with Sportingbet

Nico Hulkenberg may be ending his Formula 1 career this weekend. A good driver who never got his arse in a great car, but he certainly isn’t the worst driver on the grid. He had to retire his car last year but in the four years before that he was 6/7/7/6. Renault have had a car finish sixth here in the last two years and they are reasonably optimistic that they can score well again. They have managed four double points finish in the last seven races and must have another chance to do so again this weekend, odds of just 2.20 are not great however.

Ricciardo Could Go Well

Could they get another top 6 finish? Ricciardo has had two in the last two races but he was helped by the double retirement for Ferrari and Bottas not finishing in Brazil. Vettel retiring in the US GP freed up a space in the top 6 which allowed Ricciardo a sixth place there. Like all the midfield runners, to get a top six finish they need trouble for the top 6 drivers. Bottas starts from last place but he must still be fancied to get up to, or close to sixth place.

Where the midfielders might get a break is if we see more wheel to wheel racing up at the front. All the titles have been settled, the top 4 places in the constructor’s title race are settled but Leclerc could pass Verstappen for third in the driver’s championship and Vettel has an outside chance of passing Leclerc.

The gloves are off by and large and the drivers can go for it. That is what happened in Brazil. Hamilton was gunning for Verstappen at the death, having been given a bit of a lesson by the young Dutchman, and Hamilton tripped up over Albon, trying something he would not have done if the championship was still alive. It is not impossible that we will see one or more of the top six having an accident.

Ricciardo was disqualified after finishing 6th in Japan and that makes it three top 6’s from the last four races. He likes this circuit and has finished top 6 in four of the last five years for Red Bull.

2019 Abu-Dhabi GP Tips: 1 point Ricciardo to finish in the top 6 @ 5.00 with Sportingbet, Marathon Bet

The qualifying session and Race Day Update will be posted on the TXODDS app as usual.

-JamesPunt