2019 Brazilian GP Preview

The focus now switches to Brazil in the Formula 1 world. Last week’s US Grand Prix was nearly a good one for followers of James Punt’s tips. Max Verstappen was his main tip for the race and he was only 5 seconds behind the winner in 3rd. This weekend’s race promises to be an exciting spectacle. Check out James Punt’s 2019 Brazilian GP tips and preview below…

2019 Brazilian GP Tips

The Brazilian GP is one of the highlights on the F1 calendar. The track is short lap but interesting and challenging. It is at an altitude of 800m above sea level, not quite Mexico City but high enough to put a bit of a strain on the power units in the thinner air.

The circuit has three very distinct sectors. The first is a fairly simple downhill straight with a couple of left hand corners in to another short straight before entering the second sector. This a tight, twisty sector with seven slow corners before the final sector. That is a power blast back up the hill and onto the start/finish straight.

The car can be set up to make the most of the straights, less downforce, which helps overtaking but it makes the slow, twisty infield sector much slower and that sector make up nearly half of the lap time. Some teams may choose to set the car up for optimum performance in the second sector which will give a good lap time but make the car vulnerable in the straights, especially the third sector. Finding the best compromise is the norm but there is more than one way to be quick around here.

Watch The Weather Closely

The weather is often a factor in Sao Paulo. Heavy downpours can occur out of nowhere and when it rains, it usually really rains. The forecast for this weekend is for light showers on Friday, especially in the morning with the sun coming out in the afternoon with a reduced chance of a few light showers.

Saturday should be dry but there is a small chance of a light shower around lunchtime. Race day looks like being fine and sunny and the temperature will be around 20 -25 degrees all weekend. The Track temperature should be higher on Sunday with the lack of clouds allowing the sun to do its work. It looks unlikely we will get one of those great races which have been so entertaining in past years.

Leclerc Will Face Grid Penalty

There has been much talk about the Ferrari power units after the US GP. Much was being made of the lack of the usual Ferrari straight line speed following an FIA directive regarding fuel flow. The problem with this conspiracy theory is that Leclerc’s lack of pace was because he had to revert to an old spec, high mileage power unit. Vettel’s lack of pace was largely due to him retiring from the race with broken suspension.  In qualifying, Ferrari were just 0.01 off the pole position time, so no big loss of pace was evident. It was a non-story.

What will be interesting is that Ferrari have decided not to repair Leclerc’s broken power unit but replace it with a new one and take a grid penalty of at least 10 place, possibly more. The speculation is that they will take the chance to trail some new parts of their 2020 power unit on Leclerc’s car. That won’t be enough to save his race, but it might teach us something about next season.

In recent years, the turbo Hybrid era, this is another track on which Mercedes have dominated. Three 1-2 finishes in 2014, 2015 and 2016 and another win last year. Ferrari got a win in 2017 while Red Bull had a third place in 2016 (a brilliant wet weather performance by Verstappen) and a heart breaking second-place last year.

Hamilton At Home In Brazil

Lewis Hamilton has won twice here and had three poles. Vettel has won three times and been on pole twice. Verstappen has had the two Red Bull podiums. Other notable driver records include seven consecutive top 10 finishes for Nico Hulkenberg before a DNF last year. Kimi Raikkonen has one win but a total of six other podium finishes.

The midfield teams haven’t had much of a look in as the top 6 positions have been block booked by the big three teams. Williams did have a podium in 2014 but they were a Formula 1 team back in those days. Even a top 6 place for the midfielders hasn’t happened since the wet race of 2016.  

Recent form has seen Mercedes back in top form. They have won the last four races, two each for Hamilton and Bottas. They may have lost their ability to dominate in qualifying but over a race distance they are hard to beat. Ferrari have been dominant in qualifying since the summer break, only just losing out to Verstappen in Mexico and Bottas in Texas by the tiniest of margins.

Given their excellent track record and recent form it is easy to see why Hamilton is the 2.75 favourite. That, if anything, is a touch generous. Bottas is a 5.00 shot but his record here isn’t great with just one podium finish in 2017.

Can Ferrari Make Qualifying Count?

Qualifying brings Ferrari into the picture. In the last five years, this race has been won every time from the front row and from pole position four times. Qualifying is Ferrari’s strong point. They can get more power out of their power units in Q3 than anyone else. Rival teams think they are cheating but nobody has proved any wrongdoing. Some people think that Ferrari will struggle this weekend, citing the poor performance in Texas last time out. I doubt that will be the case.

What is a puzzle is what they will do with Leclerc in qualifying? He will be taking a grid penalty, that much we know. If it is only a new internal combustion engine which is replaced, then it will be just ten places. However, Ferrari might want to give him a whole new unit and start from the back of the grid.

2019 Brazilian GP Tips: Ferrari Represent Good Value

There is nothing to play for and they might as well treat the weekend as a test session for some 2020 power unit parts. Usually if a driver is starting from the back, they do not make any meaningful running in Q3 in order to save on engine wear and tear. However, if Ferrari are just having a test, then why not give it the full beans in Q3? There is only one more race to go in any case.

If they choose the latter and let Leclerc go flat out in Q3, then his odds of 5.00 to be the fastest qualifier look like great value. However, if they adopt the standard operating procedure, they will effectively sit out Q3. Its a dilemma. In which case Vettel should be favourite for pole. The long power hungry third sector will reward Ferrari’s power advantage and that should swing it.

The best way to cover the dilemma is to back Ferrari to be the qualifying winning car.

2019 Brazilian GP Tips: 3 points Ferrari to be the winning qualifying car @ 3.00 with Sportingbet

2019 Brazilian GP Tips: Keep The Faith With Max

A Ferrari on pole position would improve their chances of a race win but they haven’t been able to capitalise on the pole positions in recent races. Leclerc won from pole in Belgium and Italy but despite starting on pole in the next four races, they failed to win one.

What about Red Bull? Verstappen has been impressive around this track, but he has had no luck. Last year he was heading for a comfortable win, and carrying our money of course, before he was tripped up by Ocon who he was lapping. He was able to get back on track, but Hamilton had passed him and Verstappen finished second, just 1. 5 seconds behind Hamilton. He started the race from 5^th and it was a great effort ruined by an idiotic mistake by Ocon.

The Red Bull has struggled here in the turbo Hybrid era due to their lack of power with the Renault engines. They now have Honda power and the Honda units have pretty much closed the gap with Mercedes in terms of performance.

They still lack some Q3 performance but over the race they are competitive. The slow infield sector is where the Red Bull as always been strong and that is an important part of the track performance wise. Perhaps Verstappen will finally get his just deserts in Brazil.

2019 Brazilian GP Tips: 2 points Max Verstappen to win the Brazilian GP @ 4.00 with William Hill, Paddy Power

It is hard to find much value in the midfield. Renault are finishing the season well, the double disqualification in Japan excepted. They have had two cars cross the finish line in the last three races and four of the last six. They are 1.91 to do so again and given Hulkenberg’s excellent track record this should be a good weekend for them.

Racing Point underperformed in the USA. Perez defied a pit lane start and finished in tenth place to keep his good run of points finishes going. He has been in the top 10 in Brazil for the last three years but that is all reflected in his odds of 1.50 for a points finish.  Stroll continues to struggle in qualifying and his race pace isn’t a lot better.

Alfa Romeo are making optimistic noises about their chance of points this weekend. However, they haven’t scored any for four races. Raikkonen does go well here and the Ferrari power unit will be an advantage but why would they suddenly improve at the tail end of the season?

Hopefully there will be more interesting bets in the midfield after qualifying on Saturday.

-JamesPunt