2019 Irish Derby tip and preview
2019 Irish Derby Tip and Preview by Dave Stevos
Our tip for Friday at the Curragh ran a shocker. Waitaki wasn’t dropped out like she usually is and unsurprisingly she faded late on. She is handicapped to win soon though, so keep an eye out for her in the coming weeks. The Irish Derby is the feature race of the weekend at the Curragh and as ever, it is a disappointing turn out. Dave Stevos has studied the form and you can check out his 2019 Irish Derby tip and preview below.
2019 Irish Derby Tip and Preview
Aidan O’Brien and Ballydoyle have dominated this race for over a decade now. Since 2006 O’Brien has won 8 of the 13 renewals and his son Joseph won it last year. It is no wonder that field sizes have dwindled over the years given the Coolmore Mafia’s monopoly, and only 8 go to post this year. Five of those are trained by Aidan O’Brien, and it basically looks like it is the Ballydoyle Batallion vs Madhmoon, though Rakan might be the fly in the ointment.
Stamina Doubts For Madhmoon
Madhmoon ran a massive race at Epsom, giving best only to Anthony Van Dyck. His trainer thinks he hit the front to soon that day, so expect him to be delivered late. However, given his pedigree and that Epsom run, stamina doubts still persist. You would imagine that at least one of the Ballydoyle contingent will be sacrificed to ensure this is a real stamina test and that will not suit Madhmoon.
The Prendergast horse is the second favourite at 5/2 with his Epsom conqueror at the head of the market at 5/4. There was only half a length between them in the English Derby. However, it is hard to see how Madhmoon can turn the form around. Anthony Van Dyck certainly wasn’t stopping at the finish and it is difficult to find a reason why Madhmoon should beat him this time.
Broome Has Room To Improve
Broome is a 3/1 shot here and he was also 1.5L behind Anthony Van Dyck at Epsom. He will love the ground but again, looking at the Epsom form it is hard to see him beating Anthony Van Dyck. Broome had no excuses last time and he had every chance if he was good enough. He needs to find another few pounds of improvement to threaten the favourite.
Norway was well behind the principals at Epsom but he was ridden forward which may not suit him. His best runs at Newmarket and Chester came when he was held up, and the ground was also too soft for him last time out. He will likely be dropped out on Saturday and if the pace collapses he will look to pick up the pieces. Norway has minor each way claims at massive odds.
Rakan A Fascinating Contender
While the three market leaders have already met in the same race, Rakan is an unknown quantity. Dermot Weld’s colt is by Sea The Stars and is out of a Teofilo mare, a Derby pedigree no doubt. On his 2yo form he will struggle to beat Norway, while Broome had his measure when they met at Leopardstown (10f gd yld). However, that was Rakan’s first run back and he looked a lot better upped to 12f last time.
He beat Barbados by just under a length at Leopardstown. That horse was a close 2nd in the Group 2 Queen’s Vase at Ascot. The third home was Eminent Authority and he too ran well in the same race at Ascot in 5th. From a betting perspective, he makes most appeal each way in this race. His odds of 20/1 probably look fair, but he could well be still progressing. On Leopardstown form, he hasn’t got a massive amount to find with Broome.