2020 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tips by Dave Stevos
2020 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tips and Preview
We made a promising start at Keeneland on Friday night. Ubettabelieve ran a huge race to finish 3rd, rewarding e/w support at 16/1. Go Athletico got no run at all and I am not sure how Girl Daddy didn’t place. She stayed on strongly when her jockey got her organised but it was too late. Nazuna broke slowly, was always out the back and she could never land a blow. Rambauer ran a nice race to finish 5th, he just had too much to do. Hopefully we have more luck this evening. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2020 Breeders’ Cup Saturday tips and preview below…
2020 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tips: 5.02pm – Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1)
This 7f Grade 1 race will be contested by 8 fillies and mares and it looks very competitive. Gamine is the market leader now back in trip after disappointing over 9f. She previously won a pair of Grade 1s at 7f and 8f by a combined distance of 26L. She made all for both those wins but she will face a battle for the lead here. Serengeti Empress and Venetian Harbor both like to lead too and this could turn into a real tear up. If it does, Sally’s Curlin could run on late for place money.
This 4yo daughter of Curlin likes to be dropped out and finish with a late run. In a Grade 3 at Gulfstream she came from last to first to score impressively. She ran a nice enough race over today’s C&D back in July when staying on for 5th. She then faced two of today’s rivals in Bell’s The One and Serengeti Empress and she was only 3L behind them in 3rd, closing all the way to the line. If this is a strongly run race, like it looks like it will be on paper, that will suit this filly big time. At odds of 33/1 Sally’s Curlin is the each way NAP of the day.
2020 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tips: Sally’s Curlin e/w @ 33/1 NAP
2020 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tips: 5.39pm – Turf Sprint (Grade 1)
A maximum field of 14 speedsters go to post for this 5.5f sprint. A wide draw isn’t too much of hindrance in sprints on the turf here and at odds of 25/1 Extravagant Kid could go well from box 14. This consistent 7yo is trained by Brendan Walsh and Umberto Rispoli takes the ride. A hold up sort, he has run very well in Grade 2 contests the last thrice, including two over C&D behind Leinster.
He has 0.5L to find with that rival today and if things drop right for him he could get even closer. Extravagant Kid was 1.5L behind the same rival in 5th on his penultimate start when he came from miles back. He has run well on 3 of his 4 previous visits to Keeneland and was badly hampered on the other one. I think 22/1 is a more than fair price for a horse that has form that ties in so closely with the market leader and he has to be worth chancing each way.
2020 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tips: Extravagant Kid e/w @ 22/1 (5 Places Skybet)
Breeders’ Cup Saturday: 6.18pm – Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile (Grade 1)
A dozen go to post for this mile race on the dirt and it looks another open heat. The one I like at a nice each way price is Owendale. Trained by Brad Cox, Florent Geroux takes the ride. This son of Into Mischief has had a solid season with his sole poor run coming over 9f. His only run at a mile resulted in a win at Churchill Downs and his three runs since have been over further. I think dropping back to his optimum distance looks the obvious move.
This colt’s form figures at 8f read 112 and his only previous run at Keeneland resulted in a win. Florent Geroux returns to the saddle and he has ridden Owendale to victory on 4 occasions. His trainer Brad Cox has a number of interesting runners this week and his horses are in flying form. Owendale will need to improve but if they go a decent clip up front he could easily have a big say at the finish at odds of 14/1.
2020 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tips: Owendale e/w @ 14/1
Breeders’ Cup Tips: 6.57pm – Filly and Mare Turf (Grade 1)
There is plenty of European interest in this 9.5f Grade 1. However, the market is headed by a couple of US trained horses. Rushing Fall has won three in a row and she is the favourite. Trained by Chad Brown this daughter of More Than Ready beat Mean Mary by a neck last time at Saratoga (9f). That was her first try at beyond 8.5f and she kept on well. However, whether another half furlong will suit is up for debate.
James Fanshawe runs Audarya and she most definitely has the ability to figure. Some will point to the fact that her recent form is on soft ground, but she has won and been placed on good to firm and good. Fanshawe has booked top French pilot Pierre-Charles Boudot for the ride so she won’t lack for assistance from the saddle. Hopefully Boudot can get cover early and settle this filly and if he does, she is capable of running big at odds of 12/1.
2020 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tips: Audarya e/w @ 12/1 (4 Places)
Keeneland: 7.36pm – Breeders’ Cup Sprint (Grade 1)
6f is the distance for the Breeders’ Cup sprint and the one that looks overpriced in this is Collusion Illusion. His two race winning run came to an end last time but it was a tactical affair. He is probably better judged on his two previous runs, a G1 win at Del Mar and a G3 victory at Santa Anita. This fella is versatile enough tactically so Flavien Prat will have options from stall 3.
He has been on board for his last three wins and he knows the son of Twirling Candy well. Mark Glatt’s charge gets weight from his older rivals and he will be much more suited by a truly run race in comparison to the muddling contest he ran in last time out. You can get odds of 20/1 for 4 places and on those terms Collusion Illusion looks well worth an each way interest.
2020 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tips: Collusion Illusion e/w @ 20/1 NB (4 places)
Keeneland: 8.15pm – Breeders’ Cup Mile (Grade 1)
We are back on the turf for one of the best races of the night. 14 horses will battle it out for honours in the Breeders’ Cup mile and it is a stellar cast. Six of the runners are European. Aidan O’Brien runs three, while John Quinn, Ger Lyons and Andrew Balding are all represented too. Kameko is the leading hope for the raiders and he heads the market. He has had a mixed season since his Guineas win but back at a mile he won well enough last time at Newmarket. That was a Group 2 but he was desperately unlucky at Goodwood on his last outing at a mile at G1 level. If he avoids traffic problems he should be thereabouts.
With 5 places on offer from a couple of firms I’ll be taking a chance on one at a bigger price. The one that fits the bill is March To The Arch. This son of Arch arrives here on the back of two fine efforts at Woodbine. He won a G2 over a mile there in August and then he ran another fine race when 2nd in a Grade 1 in September. Mark Casse’s charge has a decent run over C&D in the book and he will enjoy the good ground. Keep an eye on Starship Jubilee in the 6.57 to see if she boosts the form of his last run. If she does he will probably go off shorter than his current odds of 33/1.
2020 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tips: March To The Arch e/w @ 33/1 (5 Places)
Keeneland: 8.54pm – Breeders’ Cup Distaff (Grade 1)
Monomoy Girl is a warm order for this 9f Grade 1 on the dirt. Brad Cox trains this mare and she is 13/14 under rules. She looked as good as ever last time at Churchill (8.5f) and she won this race back in 2018 at that track. Her sole run at Keeneland resulted in a facile victory too and she is a worthy favourite.
It looks to me like there is a lack of front runners in this race, apart from the outsider Lady Kate. This 4yo daughter of Bernardini loves to dictate and she was only 1.75L behind Monomoy Girl on her penultimate start at Churchill. She didn’t get her own way in front last time here over 9f but she may well be able to get an easier lead in this race. Given the fact that Monomoy Girl is 13/8 and Eddie Kenneally’s filly is 50/1 and there was less than 2L between them when they last met, Lady Kate is worth taking a chance on each way for small stakes.
2020 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tips: Lady Kate e/w @ 50/1
Keeneland: 9.33pm – Breeders’ Cup Turf (Grade 1)
In the 2019 renewal of this contest we were on United at 80/1 (and the winner Bricks and Mortar). United went down by a short head to the favourite and I am keeping the faith in him this year. The son of Giant’s causeway has had a fine season, winning 4 of his 5 starts. They all came at Grade 2 level admittedly but that run last year proved he is capable at the top table.
This horse is pretty versatile tactically but ideally I’d like to see him in a prominent early position. He probably lacks the turn of foot of some of these but he will keep on galloping all the way to the line. He had Channel Alpha and Arklow well behind when 2nd in this last year and he can beat those rivals again. Magical is obviously a class act and Tarnawa and Mogul are other strong European challengers. However, at odds of 16/1 United makes most appeal and he is the each way pick.
2020 Breeders’ Cup Saturday Tips: United e/w @ 16/1
Keeneland: 10.18pm – Breeders’ Cup Classic (Grade 1)
The finale on Breeders’ Cup weekend is the Classic, a 10f dirt contest. A field of 10 go to post and Improbable is edging favouritism for Baffert and Ortiz Jr. He comes here after three successive G1 wins and he was very impressive last time at Santa Anita (9f). Tiz The Law came unstuck in the Kentucky Derby last time but it was still a fine effort.
To be honest, the market leaders will probably dominate this but one horse that could surprise with a good run is Title Ready. This 5yo likes it at Keeneland where he has form figures of 1213. The wins came in lesser company than today over 7f and 8.5f but his last run over 9f at Keeneland was a cracker. He was beat just a length in 3rd, staying on strongly at the finish.
After looking at his last few runs I think that this first run at 10f is going to be right up his street. He has yet to run over further than 9f and while his trainer couldn’t have found a much harder race for him to try 10f for the first time, it will be fascinating to see how he gets on. I can see him staying on late at the finish and hopefully he can nick a place for us at massive odds.
