2020 Eifel Grand Prix Preview and Tips

We return to action in F1 this week with the 2020 Eifel Grand Prix. Followers of James Punt’s tips for the Russian GP were in clover as Valtteri Bottas powered to victory. Can he find another winner this weekend? Check out James Punt’s 2020 Eifel Grand Prix preview and tips below…

2020 Eifel Grand Prix Preview

Formula 1 returns to the Nürburgring for the first time since 2013. This year it is branded as the Eifel Grand Prix. The track is owned by Mercedes and features 15 corners, with a good mix of slow, medium and high-speed ones. There is a slow hairpin at the end of the starting straight which allows for over taking and it is a fairly average modern F1 track, not a classic.

The big talking point this weekend, will be the weather. We are into October but still racing in Europe and it is getting cold. The average day time temperature here at this time of year is just 9 degrees. I cannot remember a race being held in such cold conditions. How the tyres will work is a huge unknown.

Will The Rain Arrive?

There is also rain about in the forecasts. Friday is forecast to have light rain all day and temperatures around 9-11 degrees. Cold and wet. Saturday sees the weather turning colder, just 7 degrees for qualifying, with some morning rain showers. Colder and wetter. Race day is set to be partly sunny, but colder at just 6 degrees and still with a 60% chance of showers

Clearly there is scope for a wet qualifying session. That might mix things up a little and then we have to consider how the teams allocate the limited number of wet weather tyres they are supplied with. Friday’s two free practice sessions look set to be wet. While the teams will want to get out and learn the track, they won’t want to burn through their wet weather tyres. They may be needed for the qualifying session and possibly the race.

The worst-case scenario for the teams would be to have wet practice and qualifying sessions, but a dry race. They would have no data on how the dry weather tyres would work, their durability and so on.

2020 Eifel Grand Prix: Unusual Run Could Continue

We have had a run of three unusual races, and this looks likely to continue that trend.

We had a wet race in Germany last year, albeit on a different circuit and it was a cracker. Max Verstappen won the race. Sebastian Vettel was second, having started at the back of the grid, and Daniil Kvyat 3rd. Hamilton only finished ninth and it was a bit of a disaster for Mercedes on home soil, with Bottas crashing out.

The problem is with these ‘it might be wet’ races is that the rain often doesn’t materialise. You can spend a lot of time working out who might be a good value bet in a wet race. Then it turns out to be dry and another Mercedes 1-2.  Looking at different forecasters it is clear that all agree on the temperatures. However, rain wise, the jury is still out. Wet sessions do look likely, but some have Sunday as dry and Sunny, others have showers.

We have had one proper wet session this season, at the Stryian GP qualifying and that threw up some surprises. The problem with that form line is that it was just the second race of the season. The cars have developed since then.

Drivers that performed well in that wet session were Hamilton and Verstappen. They finished 1-2 in qualifying and not a great surprise. Carlos Sainz was third in the McLaren, Esteban Ocon fifth in the Renault, Norris sixth, Albon seventh and Pierre Gasly eighth. George Russell was a joint season’s best twelfth.  The race itself was run in dry conditions so there was no form to take from that.

Don’t Overly Rely On Recent Form  

Recent form needs to be handled with care. The Italian GP was fully mad due to a red flag and a big in race penalty for Hamilton. The Tuscan GP was almost as mad with two red flags and eight retirements. The Russian GP saw Hamilton hit with another penalty for doing his practice starts from the wrong place.

Hamilton wasn’t in a great position tyre wise and would not have won the race in any case, but that all started in the qualifying session. That saw another red flag and at the same time Hamilton had his time deleted for exceeding track limits. That forced him to use the soft tyre for his final run and that is what really ruined his weekend, not a conspiracy as mooted by the lunatic fringe of his fan club.

The fact remains that Mercedes are still the best car by some margin, but the team have been strangely wrong footed in two of the last three races. That has made them a bit jumpy and not the perfectly function machine that we are used to.

Verstappen Could Challenge

Red Bull, sorry, Max Verstappen, can be a realistic challenger given the right circumstances and is when Mercedes have problems with tyre wear. Certain tracks have given Mercedes tyre problems. Hot, high speed, high downforce tracks give Verstappen the chance to beat Mercedes. It certainly won’t be hot this weekend. The track will require a medium- high downforce set up to cope with the slower, more technical sectors. It is not unlike Mugello, just much colder and lacking a really long straight.

Teams that do seem to be moving up and bringing plenty of developments are Renault and McLaren. Renault now have a car that is good on all sorts of track and with signs that it was good in the wet in the Stryian GP, we should expect Ricciardo and perhaps Ocon to be competitive. Ocon just isn’t in the same league as Ricciardo and he needs good luck if he is to get a top 6 finish, while Ricciardo is almost a given to finish in the top 6. Wet or dry, Renault should be a feature near the top.

Ricciardo has now had three fourth place finishes in the last seven races and his average finishing position in the last four races is 4.75. The Renault is good on all circuits and while he would still need a bit of luck, a podium is not out of the question. His odds however are just 5.00 which is just too short to be called value.

Inconsistent McLaren

McLaren have been a bit more up and down. The car is good but a little sensitive, especially to wind. That is not a big part of the weather forecast for Saturday and Sunday. However, it will blow a bit on Friday. What McLaren do have is team boss Andreas Seidl, who has an extensive knowledge of the track. With no data for the turbo-hybris era cars here, having someone who knows the track inside out can only help. Sainz is a very good wet weather driver. Given the right conditions, he could have another good result.

McLaren introduced a new nose at the Russian GP, but their progress was marred by a tail wind which upset the balance of the car. The team are confident that the new nose will see an improvement in performance, and it is part of a planned series of developments which the team are brining in, race by race.

Tips: Sainz Represents Value

Carlos Sainz looks to be a bit of value for a top 6 finish. He is not having a great season, he has had bad luck with his car compared to his teammate, but his average grid position is 7.3, the fifth best of all the drivers on the grid. The car has been at its best on the faster circuits and even though this is a track without very long straights, it is regarded as a fast track. With wind not set to be a big feature and improvements being made to the car, he should be in the hunt for his fourth top 6 finish of the season. Rain would help but even in the dry, he should be competitive.

2020 Eifel Grand Prix: 2 points Carlos Sainz to finish in the top 6 @ 3.25 generally available

Racing Point may not be able to bring as many updates for their car as Renault and McLaren. However, they are still right in the mix to finish the season in third place. Just seven points separate Renault in fifth place and McLaren in third with Racing Point between those two. They have had  a car in the top six in eight of the ten races so far this season. Despite Perez missing two races he is now within one point behind Lance Stroll. Ironic given that he has been dropped by the team and not given the latest upgrade. He should have it this weekend and he should overtake his teammate in the championship table.

Perez is a driver who has not had a podium finish despite high expectations that he would. He is very consistent in qualifying. In four of his last six races, he has started on the second row of the grid. His problem has been improving on his grid position over a race distance and he may well come up just short once again.

Wet Struggles For Racing Point

One cautionary note for Racing Point is that they were very poor in the wet Stryian GP qualifying ending up thirteenth and seventeenth, so maybe they are one team that don’t want it wet.

A wet race or even qualifying could mix things up as we saw in Germany last year. In the end the race was won by Verstappen in the Red Bull, so it wasn’t a massive shock. Kvyat finishing third in the then Toro Rosso, certainly was.

Alpha Tauri/Toro Rosso are a team that specialise in getting the big shock results. Going back to the happy days of the magic weekend in Italy 2008 when Vettel landed a 100/1 bet to qualify on pole position and subsequently went on to win the race. Kvyat getting a podium in Germany last year and Gasly winning this years Italian GP.

Gasly had his second-best qualifying performance of the season in the wet Stryian GP qualifying session. He should be on the short list for a good performance if we get a wet race this weekend.

The weather forecast is unsatisfactory. I have learned through bitter experience that a forecast that says a 60% chance of showers, usually means a dry race. If it was a rain bearing weather front moving through the region then that’s OK, it will rain. Showers? That’s a lottery. This weekend could well be like the Hungarian GP when there was rain around the circuit but all we got was a shower before the start of the race and some drivers where able to start on dry tyres.

This will be a weekend for holding fire until the last possible moment, just to get the best idea of what the weather will actually do.

Cold Weather Will Suit Mercedes

If it remains dry but cold, I suspect we will see a good weekend for the Mercedes drivers. Their car is no friend of hot conditions and they should have fewer problems getting the tyres up to the correct temperatures thanks to all that downforce they generate, and their trick steering system should help. A wet, or better still, showery, changeable conditions for the race opens everything up. So, fingers crossed that we see some of the wet stuff.

Free Practice 1 is looking to be the most likely session to be wet. Consequently, it might be worth having a flutter in that market. We backed Bottas in Russia and he duly obliged. That made it six fastest in FP1’s in a row. He remains a 2.10 shot to do it tomorrow but in the wet we might see a surprise and the bookmakers pay out on the top 3 rather than just the top two.

Ricciardo Of Interest If Rain Arrives

Just like the races, FP1 has been dominated by Mercedes. One of their drivers, usually Bottas has been fastest in all but two sessions. Perez was fastest at the Stryian race and Verstappen at the British GP. In Russia we had Ricciardo second fastest and he would be of interest in a wet session, as would Carlos Sainz and the Alpha Tauri boys don’t mind having a go. Even a Ferrari could sneak in but they will have more upgrades this weekend and may be a little more cautious in case of damage. McLaren have not had a car feature in the top 3 in any FP1 session so they may run heavy in as part of their programme.

2020 Eifel Grand Prix: 0.5 point e/w Daniel Ricciardo to be fastest in FP1 @ 34.00 with William Hill, Betvictor, BET356 (1/5 the odds 1-3)

As usual updates will be posted via the TXODDS app, around 30 minutes before the start of qualifying and the race.

-JamesPunt