2020 US Election Betting Tips By James Punt

Getting any sort of a bet on anything is tough these days. People have even resorted to having a flutter on what news organisation will ask the first question at the UK Government’s daily Covid-19 Updates! It has been pure showbiz at time in the USA too, with Donald Trump holding a nightly press conference at the Whitehouse. He claims his ratings are up and he is looking stronger than ever in the polls. Is he worth a bet to win the upcoming election? Find out by reading James Punt’s 2020 US Election betting tips below…

2020 US Election Betting Tips and Preview

With the absence of any sporting activity for the foreseeable future we shall turn our attention to the fascinating subject of the 2020 US Presidential election. We did well last time round, bagging Trump at 6/4 to win the Republican candidacy and 6/1 to win the Presidential election, but times have changed, and then some.

It’s safe to say Donald Trump has been the most divisive US President in history, which is part of his strength when it comes to elections. His supporters are blindly loyal, very much akin to a cult. His ‘Make American Great Again’ slogan from 2015 appealed to the disaffected blue collar works, the people of the rust belt, the forgotten ones.

The Trump campaign was based around well-orchestrated rallies, with simple and repeated themes. The threat of the immigrant, the threat of the corrupt political elite in Washington and the promise that he would ‘drain the swamp’, ‘build a wall’ and most of all, make America great again. All very simple mantra’s and very effective.

The Democrats Lacked Ideas Last Time

His opposition had no real point of focus, no catchy slogans and were arguably guilty of complacency. How could this orange, TV reality show host, have any credibility with the voters? They would surely see sense and not vote for such a charlatan. The Democratic party forgot one of the golden rules of politics. Never overestimate the intelligence of the electorate.

The Donald, or I should say, his strategists, had a plan. Promise, promise and promise some more.  The truth was irrelevant, facts no longer facts, anyone who disagreed was spreading ‘fake news’. It was, indeed, a cult.  The election was close run thing, but in the end, Trump got a narrow win.

2020 US Election Betting Tips: Trump Back For More

Now, five years down the line, Trump is seeking re-election. A few months ago, his chances looked very good. The Democrats still had no effective opponent, no big idea that might break the hold of the cult mentality. The economy looked good on paper, employment rates where good, the stock market was up, and he appeared to have delivered at least some of his promises.

A trade war with China was a fly in the ointment, as was a deteriorating relationship with the European Union and the wall was a bit patchy at best. Trade wars hurt both sides, but Trump played it out as him kicking ass and winning, making America great again. The cult members were satisfied. Winning a second term should be easy.

Coronavirus Effect?

Then came Covid 19, or the Chinese virus, as Trump would refer to it as. The cult likes that message. It was another threat from outside that must be resisted, but it wasn’t important, it was just like the flu, a mild flu, it wouldn’t be a problem for Trump’s America.

Rather than risking the economy by having lockdowns, Trump and his people favoured just letting nature take its course. It would be fine. Those old, sick people that died where a drain on resources in any case and their deaths would free up housing stock and decrease heath care costs.

The only problem was that the herd Immunity proponents didn’t consider just how infectious the virus was. In China the numbers of people infected rocketed, the hospitals where very quickly over run and there was no chance of operating anything close to ‘normal service’.

The same then happened in Italy, only worse. Italy’s death rate was higher and a highly sophisticated, 1st world, medical infrastructure was brough to its knees in a matter of weeks. The idea of ‘Herd Immunity’ was not an easy way out, it was the road to disaster. Not only could the health system not cope, the economy was unable to function. It was a lose, lose situation. The rest of Europe started to follow Italy down the slippery slope.

2020 US Election Betting Tips: No Clear Messages

In the UK, government policy was thrown into reverse. They were maybe three or four weeks behind Italy and Spain in terms of the acceleration of infection. In the USA we still had Trump in denial. He had no plan B, just repeating that America was great and he was in control, beating the virus. Foreigners were banned from flying to the USA from mainland Europe (but the UK was ok) but US citizens abroad could still return. In the meantime, internal flights in the US went on unabated.

Trump said on the 30th January, that there was just 1 person infected and that person had been in China. February 11th, he said hotter weather would kill it. February 24th there where just 15 people in the USA affected and they were getting better. On February 28th, it was going to disappear like a miracle. As March blew in, Trump was still unconcerned.

March 4th, only very low numbers affected, the lowest in the world but by the 11th there were signs that someone had told him that things where getting serious. ‘We are responding with great speed and professionalism’. March 13th he said he took no responsibility at all. This is the President. On March 17th he finally admitted ‘This is a pandemic’.

Coronavirus Reality Finally Bites

Eventually, reality had kicked in. The numbers of reported cases exploded, as it had done everywhere else that didn’t taken the threat seriously. Within a matter of days, the USA went from splendid isolation and purity under the leadership of The Donald, to having more cases than anywhere else on the planet. New York was a basket case, unable to function, something needed to be done.

Where was The Donald? He was groping around, looking for a deal that would keep the economy going. The Fed slashed interest rates and he was happy, the stock market would love it, and everything would be fine. There was no mention of the human cost, no empathy, no humanity.

The stock market bombed the next morning. Suddenly The Donald was exposed, even to his cult followers, as a fraud. The leader said it would be OK, but he was wrong. His response was to get another deal in place, this time a trillion dollar financial stimulus, pumping money in to the economy to shore up demand. Every citizen would be given $1200 dollars. Still no mention of the sick and dying. It is all about the economy for Trump. He cares not a jot for people. He is a sociopath and a narcissist and acted accordingly.

The markets perked up briefly but their enthusiasm for Trump’s plans soon waned. He had misjudged the situation once again.

Trump Lacking Leadership Qualities

The nation needed a leader and this pandemic is a great opportunity for authoritarian leaders to take charge and strengthen their position at the same time. It needed a strongman. Trump failed to stand up and lead. He couldn’t as he had no grasp of the situation. His one-dimensional mind can see only deals, how to make money, for the rich to get richer. The pandemic was not in his, or his strategists play book. They don’t know what to do. In the meantime, the real world was running its course and America was rapidly becoming infected. Buying more guns was popular, but not the answer.

Trump, unable to lead, deferred responsibility to individual states and their Governors to take responsibility. Like a small child breaking something and running away saying it’s not my fault. To compound his lack of leadership, he made life difficult for Governors to get Federal aid, if that Governor hadn’t kissed his fat orange ass. He still didn’t get it.

As of the end of March, Trump has lost control of the spread of Covid 19 in America. He missed the opportunity to learn from the mistakes of others, to act decisively and early.

US In Big Trouble

Now his country is being swamped by the virus and people are and will continue to die, in very large numbers. Their health care system is not designed to look after lots of sick people, certainly not lots of poor sick people. This doesn’t bother Trump on an emotional level, but his people know that its not a good thing to happen running up to the election.

He can wave at a navy hospital ship sailing to help the sick in New York, but he doesn’t care. It will all be OK by Easter anyway. It will be over by Easter Sunday, and the churches will be full to give thanks. Trump has made the mistake of telling the cult what the cut off date for this crisis is. Easter Sunday.

Trump’s big idea, his solution, was a financial stimulus package. Tackling a health crisis by giving people money to spend in stores that are shut. Or maybe it is a redistribution of wealth from the state to billionaires? Whichever, it won’t stop the virus. He has pinned his colours to the economy and only the economy. Dollars over people. Will it be enough to save his presidency?

Covid-19 vs The Economy –  The People Will Decide

This is where we go back to the cult of The Donald. Will his followers still support him if they have lost their jobs? (and millions have). Will they still support him when friends and family are sick and dying? Will America still be great with an economy in tatters despite his big stimulus idea?

No is the obvious answer. There is no logical argument to think that his supporters will not see that he is a fraud, that his promises were lies and he is not making America great again. That would make no sense. Only an idiot would believe in him.

However, this is America. A huge country with a lot of wacko people in it. This is a country where a significant number of the populations first reaction to the threat of a virus was to rush out and buy more guns. Stores had to first start rationing bullets, not toilet roll. Logic doesn’t come into it.

Never overestimate the intelligence of the electorate.

Of course, only about half of the American electorate are potential Trumpists. There are plenty of sensible, educated people who can see through his bluster, but that was the case four years ago and he won. He didn’t win the popular vote, he got less than Hilary Clinton by some 2.8 million votes, but with a little help from Russia, he won.

Media Coverage Massive

Clearly his victory was by the finest of margins and he now has to go again, but with a background of a country with booming unemployment, a depressed stock market, and millions of people under threat of an early death, all under his watch. He can no longer blame Obama (but no doubt he will try) and he doesn’t have a divisive opponent like ‘crooked’ Hilary Clinton this time round.

One of the reasons why Trump prevailed in 2016 was that he got much more media coverage. Whether that was just a morbid fascination of this interloper gate crashing the election, or a more sinister campaign by the right wing media doesn’t matter, he got more coverage. All the time reinforcing his positive messages about making America great again. It worked.

The fact is that he is still getting more media coverage, but this time it is not all about slogans at rallies. Now he is being asked questions about his policies, his failures…and this virus which is killing thousands. That is harder to get away with. Trump has no ability to think on his feet and while he will put on a good show at his rallies, elsewhere he will flounder. Additional media coverage may not help him so much this time round.

2020 US Election Betting Tips: Has Trump Been Exposed?

His democratic opposition couldn’t have hoped for a better scenario heading into a Presidential election. Trump has been shown up as the idiot he is. Faced with the greatest crisis since WW2, the president of the USA is busy congratulating himself on his TV ratings, and berating journalists for asking him ‘nasty questions’.

He is sticking to the plan that lying is best and that his cult followers will buy just about anything he says. And he is probably right. Those people wearing the MAGA hats and buying more guns are not great thinkers. Unquestioning support is much easier than thinking. If Big D says it will all be over by Easter, then it will be. Anything else is just fake news. All hail The Donald.

Unfortunately for him, the virus doesn’t listen. ‘His’ people are getting sick, ‘his’ people are losing their jobs, 3 million signed up for unemployment welfare in just a single week. That isn’t fake news, that’s reality.

Will Things Improve In Time For Trump?

His best, perhaps only hope, is that things improve before November. As soon as the infection rates slow and death rates slow, He will take all the credit, all of it. The Donald will have saved America AGAIN. His supporters will lap it up, he will be the new Jesus and even those that suffered may be lured back by his propaganda. The economy may be in tatters, but he will just promise that it will come back, better than ever, very quickly. It will be tremendous, a beautiful recovery, the greatest recovery ever.

Against his chances is that he won’t pick up any new support. Those that didn’t vote for him in 2016, won’t do it in 2020. With such a close run thing in 2016, he can’t afford to lose supporters. There are signs that some are waking up to the fact that Trump has been as total failure just when leadership was required. Those people may not vote democrat, but they won’t vote Trump. He must keep his followers on board, keep the cult strong.

The media remain fixated on Trump. He has his own station broadcasting on his behalf and Fox News will continue to lie for him right up to election day. The more objective media are still shinning all the light on Trump. When was the last time you saw Joe Biden on the news, or on Twitter, or on Facebook? The democrats will struggle to get their message across as all the prime time is taken up by the Orange one.

2020 US Election Betting Tips: Still Time For Trump To Turn Things Around

Trump may look like he is heading for defeat right now, but he has 7 months to hope that things start turning around. If they do, and they probably will, he will be on the campaign trail, with those well-orchestrated rallies, the slogan’s, the simple message for simple folk. He may be on the ropes right now and he is going to take heavy punishment, but he will still be there in November with pretty much the same support as he had last time.

It’s the last day of March and Trump is the 2.00 favourite to win the 2020 US Presidential election. That seems madly short given the sate of the country right now.

However, he has a few very important things in his favour. The cult of Trump is still strong. It is under threat, but its still strong.

He has cornered the lions share of the media, again. It may be like watching a freak show most of the time, but freak shows have always been able to command an audience and if you have some one’s attention, you have a chance to get their vote.

He has time on his side. The situation with Covid 19 is going to get worse, considerably worse, but eventually infection rates will slow and drop, as will the death rate. This will have nothing to do with the efforts of the medical profession, of social distancing policies, or individual states working hard to make things better. It will be because of Donald Trump and he will remind everyone of that again and again and again. Of course, his dithering will have cost many, many lives, but that is fake news. He is the new messiah; those nut job preachers will make sure people get that message.

2020 US Election Betting Tips: Weak Opposition

Finally, the opposition is weak. His main opponent in the betting market remains Joe Biden, a 2.38 shot. Biden is a 77-year-old former Vice President and has twice failed to get the Democratic Party’s nomination. His age is against him and two failures to get the nomination isn’t a great track record. He is regarded as being prone to gaffs and has suffered accusations of inappropriate touching. Neither of those things are on the same scale as Donald Trump’s gaffs or boasts of ‘pussy grabbing’, but Biden can’t get away with it, Trump can.

Biden’s supporters are not as enthused as the Trumpists. A recent poll showed only 24% of Biden’s supporters described themselves as very enthusiastic about him. 26% where not very enthusiastic at all. On Trumps side, 53% where very enthusiastic about Trump and only 14% where not enthusiastic. Getting people out to vote is key, and Trump is well ahead on that front.

Cuomo Absence A Big Blow

There is, or rather there was, a dark horse coming with a late run in the Democratic camp. New York governor, Andrew Cuomo. He has taken charge of dealing with the huge Covid 19 outbreak in New York City. Rather than getting blamed for the virus rampaging through the city’s population, he has received plaudits for his leadership. A 90% approval rating for Cuomo is something that has scared Trump. So scared that Trump has said that the only reason why Cuomo is doing a good job is because it is Trump that has helped him. A classic bit of Trumpism.

The bad news for the Democrats is that Cuomo has just empathically ruled himself out of the race.

What about Bernie Saunders? He has tried and failed to win the Democratic nomination before and failed. There doesn’t seems to be any reason to think it will be any different this time round and he is a 41.00 shot to be the next President.

2020 US Election Betting Tips: Wait For A Drift – Then Lump On Trump!

As mad and sad as it is, it is hard to see the Democrats being able to put up a credible opponent against Trump. The only realistic chance they have to win is if the Covid 19 crisis gets so bad that it breaks down the cult of Donald Trump. That he loses enough supporters to tip the balance and then that they don’t jump back on the band wagon once things start to improve.

At 2.00 Trump only makes marginal appeal value wise. The situation in America is going to get worse before it gets better. If this is the case, his odds may drift to a more attractive level. His odds have been fluctuating recently and he was trading around 1.70 before Covid really started to muddy the waters. In the coming weeks and months, it is bound to fluctuate again and I will be hanging on and hoping that he drifts to around 2.40 – 2.50. At that point he looks value and worth a decent bet.

-JamesPunt