Formula 1 2020 Preview and Outright Tips

Despite the best efforts of COVID-19, the Formula 1 season kicks off this weekend. Lewis Hamilton is looking to make history and it is hard to see how he can be stopped. Our F1 betting expert James Punt has a number of recommended outright bets. Check out his extensive Formula 1 2020 Preview and tips below…

Formula 1 2020 Preview: Pre-Season News

There are just two driver changes for this season, Nico Hulkenberg is out at Renault, replaced by the ex-Force India driver, Esteban Ocon. Nicolas Latifi replaces Robert Kubica at Williams.

This season might be the longest ever with 22 races and two new venues. A street circuit in Hanoi, Vietnam, and the return of the Dutch Grand Prix at Zandvoort.  I say might be the longest season, but there is just as much chance it may be the shortest.

Formula 1 is a true World Championship and the only continents it misses are Antarctica, no tracks and a bit chilly and Africa, very hot and not enough money. This year we have a global pandemic, the Corona virus, which is inevitably affecting all four corners of the planet. Formula 1 exists in its own bubble, but it is not immune to the realities of a global lockdown.

Chinese GP Postponed

The Chinese GP has already been ‘postponed’ but how they could fit it in at a later date seems unfeasible. The second race of the season, the Bahrain GP, will go ahead, but without any spectators. I guess we won’t notice the difference for that particular race, but it highlights the problems that face the organisers of the individual races.

If their government says that they want a ban on people coming into their country, or various part of it, what can they do? Cancel the race and face a huge financial hit or run it behind closed doors, and take a huge financial hit.

Formula 1 2020 Preview: Tyre Supply Issues

Italy is home to two Formula 1 teams, Ferrari and Alpha Tauri, and also the tyre supplier, Pirelli and component manufacturers who supply teams up and down the grid. The entire country is effectively shut. Peoples freedom of movement has been severely limited and as a result, so is the movement of goods in and out of the country. Countries around the world are starting to ban anyone that has been to Italy from entering the country. Where does that leave the Italian teams and suppliers?

We could have non-championship races without Ferrari and Alpha Tauri, but you can’t have a race without tyres.

It is with this massively uncertain backdrop that we look ahead to the new season but be aware that it may all descend into a farce, in a way never seen before.

Formula 1 2020 Preview: Rules Changes

All the big changes come in 2021 and there is very little in the way of technical regulation changes for the season ahead. There is a clampdown on clutch design to prevent teams getting an advantage at the race start and we will see new fins on the engine cover on which the cars number will be displayed. Fuel flow and oil burning regulations will be vigorously enforced which seems to have hit one team harder than most.

Formula 1 2020 Preview: Teams and drivers for 2020

Formula 1 2020 Preview: Mercedes

Constructors Championship Odds – 1.29

Lewis Hamilton – 1.57

Valtteri Bottas  –  9.00

Another vehicle manufacturer whose long-term interests will lie in electric power and not internal combustion engines. Dieter Zetsche, the man behind Mercedes getting back into Formula 1 has retired and his replacement, Sten Ola Källenius, is a believer in electric power and will only back the F1 program for as long as it is cost effective in terms of its marketing value to the brand.

The team’s finances have been boosted by signing INEOS as a five year sponsor but Daimler have reduced their input by some $80 million.

Continued Mercedes dominance is not good for Formula 1. People do not warm to sports that are predictable and without public engagement in the sport, generating income becomes difficult. Limiting their ability to spend their way to success is one way to lower their colours but they will still be investing a lot in 2020 before the budget caps kick in next season.

As top dog, Mercedes suffer from the law of diminishing marginal returns. Improving on excellence is very hard but they have succeeded in past seasons to do just that. They have a huge work force which allows them to work on small gains in many areas every year. Numbers, budgets, resources, Mercedes have a surfeit of them all and that is why they can remain on top.

New Steering System For Mercedes

An example this year is that they have come up with a clever system (DAS or duel axis steering) which allows for the front wheels to assume a ‘toe-out’ position for corners, but with a pull back on the steering column , the wheels return to a straight up position for the straights, eliminating tyre scrub and drag. Its legality is already a big talking point. It seems they have found an area with no regulation, for this year, but it will not be legal under the 2021 rules.

It is unlikely that this system will be a game changer in the same way as the blown diffuser was back in the day and it is unlikely that many teams will try and introduce their own version as it would be a lot of effort for marginal gains and for one season only.

The rear suspension has also been remodelled which is helping with rear-end stability (a key attribute for Melbourne, the opening race of the season).

The team lost ground to Ferrari in terms of power unit performance and they will be targeting improvements in 2020. Cooling was a weakness, meaning that they couldn’t run in the highest modes for as long as Ferrari and they suffered when the ambient temperatures where high.

Similar Set Up

The new car sticks to the long wheelbase, low rake concept. There are changes to the nose, the side pods and suspension layout and it is a significant evolution of last year’s car. The changes to Ferrari style side pods is perhaps the biggest change and it is designed to improve air flow along the length of the car, boosting downforce. There will be further upgrades for the opening race but not a whole new design which they unveiled in Melbourne last year.

The first test saw Mercedes fastest, if the usual proviso about unknown fuel loads and so on. It is, however, still the team to beat. The car is an improvement on last year and the only hiccups where an electrical problem which kept Bottas off the track for an hour or so and that they changed a power unit as precaution. Customer team, Williams, also suffered multiple power unit failures, so there is a cause for concern there. These power units are not usually run at full tilt in testing so if they are having problems now, will they be able to take the risk and run flat out in the early races?

The new car has once again set the standard. They were the quickest and ran the most number of laps. Their long pace was strong, and the one lap pace was strong. The concern over power unit reliability was the only cloud on the horizon and given that they ran the equivalent of 13 Spanish GP’s in the two tests, maybe its not a surprise that they had some reliability woes.

Formula 1 2020 Preview: Ferrari

Constructors Championship Odds – 7.50

Charles Leclerc – 7.50

Sebastian Vettel – 13.00

A massive workforce of 1500 people but funding is good thanks to them getting 20% of the total prize money, for ‘historical’ performance’. They also get a big investment from tobacco giant Philip Morris and this is proving controversial and perhaps under threat in the medium term. They will be spending heavily this year to hedge against the financial restrictions which come into effect in 2021.

Charles Leclerc has signed a five year deal which signals the teams intent to get behind the youngster. Where that leaves Sebastian Vettel in terms of number one status is an interesting question. Vettel’s contract might say ‘official’ number 1 driver, but Ferrari know Leclerc is their main hope. It is a confusing dynamic and another bit of a muddle in the team.

There is bound to more friction between Vettel and Leclerc than Hamilton and Bottas or Verstappen and Albon. Last year Vettel was publicly backed as the number 1 driver and that he would be prioritised where necessary. This year? The two are free to race, which doesn’t sound like Vettel is the number 1 anymore.

Pressure Mounting On Vettel

Vettel is under pressure. He is now paired with a very fast teammate who also has a long contract. Vettel has not responded well to previous teammates beating him and his mistakes in 2019 showed that he is not reacting well to the challenge that is Leclerc. It seems to me that the only way is down and very probably out for Vettel. He finished 5^th in 2019, behind Leclerc and won just one GP. The car was better than that.

Vettel’s contract is up at the end of the year and at some point, he is going to have to sit down and try and negotiate a new one. That is always a distraction especially if Ferrari start talking about a pay cut, number two status et al. His other options are going to a lesser team which won’t appeal. If he wants to stay at Ferrari, he will have to up his game, so he is under pressure to perform from the word go. If the car is to his liking, he might be able to save his job.

Money Has Not Bought Success

The team hasn’t won a championship since 2008, despite being the biggest spenders in the sport. The pressure is always on at Ferrari and one reason that they underperform is now they react to problems. Heads roll, people are sacked or moved and that doesn’t produce a healthy atmosphere for engineers to be bold. Stability and continuity of personnel is a strength but not a strength that Ferrari have had for many years.

The new car is an evolution of last year’s car, as will be the case up and down most of the pit lane. Ferrari will be looking to address last year’s cars weaknesses, most notably a lack of downforce which hindered cornering performance. They had plenty of power and great in a straight line, but racetracks have corners, some of them a lot of corners. They were losing out to Mercedes and Red Bull in terms of cornering so we should expect the car to be a bit more draggy, giving more downforce but that may impact on their straight line pace.

Ferrari will need to have addressed power unit cooling, something that bit them hard at the start of 2019. They were great in testing but when the weather in Melbourne was warmer, they had to run the power unit very conservatively in order to allow reliability. They were suddenly on the back foot.

Power Unit Problems

Power unit reliability wasn’t bullet proof in 2019 and that will need to improve. The team have introduced an all new gear box which is narrower than is predecessor which allows the bodywork to be tighter and makes the airflow better at the back of the car.

The new car features a revised rear end, all designed to improve air flow and increase downforce. Team boss Mattia Binotto was keen to say that while the car ‘looks the same’ it is in fact extreme and radicle, not words heard at many launches this season.

The car, if it has addressed last year’s short comings, should be a championship contender. The real question is will Ferrari as a team, be championship contenders. Arguably their biggest weakness has been how the team operates off the track and on the pit wall. Strategically they have been third best and add to that driver errors and things fall apart all to easily.

The pre-season rumour mill saw some talk that the 2020 car’s aero numbers were causing some concern and the first test did nothing to dispel that story. Team boss Mattia Binotto was down beat by day three of testing, saying that the car was not yet ready to beat Mercedes. Vettel’s body language wasn’t great, and it seems that they may not have built a very good car. A power unit failure was another worry.

Cornering Faster?

The team say the car is producing faster cornering speeds, as was the plan, but they have lost straight line performance, as is the cost of better cornering. They were best of all in the slow corners, competitive in high speed corners, but woefully slow on the straights, some 1.6 seconds off customer team, Alfa Romeo. They admit to being behind Mercedes and Red Bull. Others are saying they may be behind McLaren, Renault and Racing Point as well, but that seems unlikely.

The BIG story came at the very end of testing. The FIA released a statement saying that they had reached a ‘settlement’ with Ferrari regarding an investigation of the 2019 Ferrari power unit. No details of this ‘settlement’ where released and no details of what the problem with the power unit was.

It was a bombshell and leaves more questions than answers. The obvious conclusion is that Ferrari where at it, bending the rules to the point of breaking them. The fact that the FIA had issued directives about oil burning and fuel flow for 2020 suggested they were on to something.

Drag Could Be An Issue

It now looks like Ferrari have designed a car with more downforce, and more drag, and now they have been hit by the FIA saying that will not be able to use their power units in the same way as before. They now have a less powerful car but a more draggy car. That is a recipe for SLOW. It is too late to change the design philosophy. To do so would tie up a huge amount of resources, won’t be ready for months and would be worthless ahead of the big changes coming in for 2021.

Some analysts are saying that this year’s car is slower than last year’s car. Ferrari must make a choice, just give up on 2020 and focus their resources on the 2021 car or try and save face in 2020 and take their eye off the very important job of building next year’s car.

Ferrari have another problem. The Corona virus. Northern Italy has been badly affected and while no employees have yet been inflected, it may be difficult for them to get into certain countries if they decide to close their borders to people from affected areas. Moto GP has already had to cancel an event and now Bahrain, the second race on the calendar, has temporarily closed its borders to people who have recently been to a prescribed list of countries including Italy.

The lights haven’t even gone out for the opening race of the season….and it already looks like another year of under achievement and chaos for Ferrari.

Formula 1 2020 Preview: Red Bull

Constructors Championship Odds – 7.50

Max Verstappen – 6.50

Alex Albon – 126.00

A healthy budget thanks to 3^rd place prize money, Red Bull investment and not having to pay for the Honda Power units. That still leaves them around $100million shy of Ferrari and Mercedes but they have traditionally been a very efficient team getting good value on their investment. There are threats however.

Aston Martin have been partially bought out by Racing Points owners and Aston Martin’s branding will move to the Pink Panthers next season.

Honda are, like most car manufacturers, moving away from traditional internal combustion vehicles, to all electric ones. Where that leaves their commitment to Formula 1 is open to question. Honda have only committed to the end of the 2021 season. There are also the rumours that Red Bull are losing their love for Formula 1 and their long-term involvement is not a given.

Honda did make great progress in 2019 and Red Bull will start the season nearly on par with Mercedes. Red Bull finished 2019 in good form and aim to carry that momentum into the first race of the season.

Early Launch

The team have attempted to avoid a slow start to the season by launching the car early in order to get on top of any problems before testing starts. With the regulations being stable the cars are evolutions of last year’s models so getting everything ready early will be easier than in recent years.

At the cars launch, the front end of the car, the nose area, attracted a lot of attention. It is an evolution of last year’s concept but there are detailed changes aimed at improving airflow on other surfaces further down the car.

The high rake philosophy has been retained. This produces more downforce, but it is not as easy to maintain that at slower speeds. Changes to the front wing regulations in 2019 hurt their performance in this area and it took them until the second half of the season to regain that lost performance. No doubt the new nose is a further attempt to improve the high rake concept. Theirs is a different approach than Ferrari or Mercedes but Red Bull are a smart team with clever people and a winning DNA.

Red Bull Have Momentum

The team finished 2019 in great form and they clearly understood their car and how to develop it. That bodes well for the RB16 and Red Bull should hit the ground running rather than playing catch up for the first half of the season.

Honda are aiming to give the team more qualifying performance. It is said that Honda have improved both performance and reliability over the winter. They managed over 2000km in the first test which bodes well for reliability. The team did change a power unit as a precaution, but where able to reintroduce it later in the test. They have addressed a weakness at race starts. Excessive wheel spin was a problem on occasions, in the wet in Germany for example, and work has been done to fix this weakness.

Verstappen was very happy with the car in the first test and getting in a lot of laps has helped them get a firm grip on the car and how it works. They are on target in all areas and look to be starting the season as the main challengers to Mercedes.

Slow Corners A Problem

The car was excellent in the medium and fast corners but was said to be off the pace in the slow ones. It was noticeable that Verstappen spun twice in the slow, twisty sector three. That may have been partly caused by the cold track and gusty winds at Barcelona and Red Bull where not alone in spinning there.

The car was only a fraction off the best time from Mercedes in the final days testing and they did it on a harder tyre. There are grounds to hope that they can mount a challenge to Mercedes. However, it may be more for a challenge by Verstappen on Hamilton, than Red Bull to beat Mercedes. Albon is a decent driver but he has only had one season in F1 and half a season at Red Bull.

It is hard to get a proper handle on the Red Bull pace. Verstappen threw out the anchor on what would have been his fastest run on the final day of testing and that before we speculate on fuel loads and so on, but they look to be in a good place going into the first race.

Formula 1 2020 Preview: Renault

Constructors Championship Odds – 501.00

Daniel Ricciardo – 1001.00

Esteban Ocon – 1001.00

2019 Didn’t work out for Renault, dropping from 4^th to 5^th and beaten by their customer team, McLaren. Poor aerodynamics were a big part of the problem. Renault have responded by bringing in ex-McLaren man Pat Fry as the new technical director.

Renault will have a new driver line up as Sebastian Ocon replaces Nico Hulkenberg. Ocon showed promise when with Force India/Racing Point but he was far from flawless and made his fair share of mistakes. He was good enough to be Mercedes reserve driver last year. He was seen as a likely replacement for Bottas but waiting around for another season on the side lines didn’t appeal and he decided to take his chance at Renault. Having last year out isn’t ideal and while he was busy on the simulator, he didn’t get much actual track time. He is still relatively inexperienced, and he will be measured against the very experienced and quick Daniel Ricciardo.

Ocon Mercedes Knowledge Could Be a Positive

Ocon still has management links to Mercedes and he will of course bring with him knowledge of what makes the Mercedes so good. He hasn’t rocked up with a brief case full of blueprints, but any information will be useful to Renault.

Ocon was a rare voice of optimism at the launch, saying that this year’s car is the biggest step forward at Renault for the last three or four years (Ocon was previously a reserve driver at Renault). He said that while the team isn’t as big as Mercedes, the facilities are now comparable to those of the world champions.

Ricciardo needs Renault to up its game. He left the race winning team at Red Bull in the hope that Renault would finally fulfil its promise as a proper works team. It didn’t make any real progress in 2019 and Ricciardo’s stock will fall with another year in the midfield.

Managing Expectations

Renaults low key launch didn’t see much enthusiasm for the season ahead. Aiming for 4^th place isn’t massively ambitious but probably more realistic. Renaults latest stint in Formula 1 has been an exercise in over promising and under delivering. This year they are warning everyone not to expect too much and maybe they will over deliver on an unambitious target.

Like most teams, they are concentrating on the big changes for 2021 and 2020 feels a bit like treading water. They are not going to catch the big 3 teams this year but will hope to beat McLaren and Racing Point for 4^th place. The new era starts next year, and it is more important to start that well rather than wasting resources chasing the unattainable in 2020.

There will be aerodynamic developments and mechanical changes to the suspension but the car that will be raced in Australia will not be the finished article. They didn’t even have a car on display at its launch.

The team has expanded to nearly 800 people, but it is not as lavishly funded as manufacturer teams of the past. The facilities are having to be brought up to modern standards but on a more modest budget than the big three teams. Money speaks very loudly in F1 which partially explains Renaults failure to get so much as a podium finish. Renault have not committed to F1 long term and another year of mediocrity may hasten their departure.

Lots Of Grip

The initial driver feedback on their new car was positive. Ocon said he had never driven a car with more grip, and this is a man who tested last year’s Mercedes. He did allude to the fact that this was not just a Renault thing, but more about the evolution of F1 cars in general. He said that he expected all the lap records to be broken this season.

The new car features a very different nose to last year’s car. They have gone down the narrow route, much like Mercedes, McLaren and the new Racing Point. They have changed the aero concept, and this is one of the cars that is more than just an evolution of last year’s car. Last year’s car was underperforming from the front end and the new approach is aimed at improving air flow to the back of the car to improve downforce. The fact that front suspension remains unchanged doesn’t make sense given changes to the nose, but perhaps that is in the pipeline.

The first test was a mixed bag. Ocon said the car lacked balance and that there was plenty of work to be done in the second test. They lacked a bit in mileage but say they understand where they need to improve.

By the end of the second test, people were starting to be more positive about the Renault. It was particularly good on the short runs, still well behind Mercedes but ahead of the rest. On long run pace they were third best and a significant improvement on their long run pace last year.

Formula 1 2020 Preview: McLaren

Constructors Championship Odds – 401.00

Carlos Sainz – 501.00

Lando Norris – 1001.00

4^th Place in 2019 was a positive sign that McLaren had turned the corner. They were not heading the same way as Williams. Money is being invested and personnel recruited. Andreas Seidl as team principal and James Key (technical director) were appointed during the 2019 season and their requests for a new wind tunnel and driver simulator are being progressed. This is the first car designed by James Key.

The first test saw a healthy amount of mileage and team boss Andreas Seidl said it was the team’s best start to a season for years, which actually isn’t saying much. Body language of the key personnel was positive. The team developed last year’s car well and this is a continuation of that. New parts where arriving during the first test and clearly the team’s upward trajectory continues.  

Testing was fairly low key. They got on with their work and looked good on long run pace if a little off one lap pace. But of course its hard to tell how much fuel is in the car on those short runs, while for the long runs, you know there has to be plenty.

Formula 1 2020 Preview: Alpha Tauri (Toro Rosso)

Constructors Championship Odds – 1001.00

Pierre Gasly – 2001.00

Daniil Kvyat – 2001.00

2019 was a good season. The improvement in the Honda power unit was a big help and the team picked up two podium finishes, albeit by fortuitous means. That meant a 6^th place finish in the constructors table with the added prize money that will bring. The team will be changing their name for 2020 to Alpha Tauri, a Red Bull owned fashion brand.

There is a good deal of synergy with Red Bull in terms of parts which make this an efficient team. Their budget remains small compared to the big three and they are not in competition with them. Toro Rosso can punch above their weight thanks to the Red Bull link, but they will forever be a midfield team at best.

The driver line up remains as it was at the end of 2019. Pierre Gasly didn’t make it at Red Bull but he was much more comfortable back at Toro Rosso. The high expectations at Red Bull where too much for such an inexperienced driver. Daniil Kvyat had a solid season with ten points finishes and he is more complete driver these days.

With a new name, the car is sporting a new livery and looks very smart. The team are targeting 5^th place for 2020, quite a tall order bearing in mind that Renault, who were 5^th last year are a manufacturing team, and that they will face stiff competition from Racing Point and Alfa Romeo.

Formula 1 2020 Preview: Racing Point

Constructors Championship Odds – 501.00

Sergio Perez – 501.00

Lance Stroll – 2001.00

2019 was a rebuilding year following the takeover of the old, skint, Force India operation. Their budget went up in 2019 but performance dropped such was the mess that Force India had gotten into. Investment takes time to filter down to improved performance and first of all they needed to get the infrastructure back up to what is needed. The workforce was up 15% and they have purchased land to build new facilities but again, the benefits of that are a year or more down the line.

Next year the team will change its name one again, to become Aston Martin F1 Team. Effectively a works team with ambitions to join the elite teams. Until then the team will remain as Racing Point and it is fair to see that we won’t see the true potential of the team for a number of years. As a team that has always punched above its weight, it will be interesting to see how they cope with having greater resources, which doesn’t always guarantee success, otherwise Ferrari would be world champions.

Improvement Likely

Visually, the new car looks very much more like last year’s Mercedes. Some have said that the only difference between last year’s W10 Mercedes and this year’s Racing Point RP20, is the colour of the paint. This is the first car built under the new ownership and built with better, more modern resources. We should see an improvement as a result.

The team want to be competitive from race one and are being very ambitious in targeting 4^th place but why not? This is a new car, not an evolution of last year’s model. They have pretty much started from scratch, not having the resources in recent years to do that. They have definitely copied some of the concepts used by other teams. Racing Point are the only team who are really going for something very new, rather than just evolving the old car while the they work on the all-important 2021 machines.

It is a bit of a gamble to make such changes to the design with just one more year of the current regulations remaining. However, if they have got it right, they may well be able to leapfrog the more conservative teams who have just gone for a mild evolution of last year’s car.

Low Rake

As they use Mercedes power units and gear boxes, they decided that their attempts to run with a Red Bull high rake concept was flawed and they should do what Mercedes do and design a low rake car. It makes a lot of sense and begs the question as to why it wasn’t done before.

The driver line up remains the same. Perez could deliver the odd podium if the car behaves like last year’s Mercedes while Lance Stroll will need to find a way to improve his qualifying performance, which was abysmal last year.

The gamble appears to have paid off. It was hard to miss the smile on Perez’ face as they hit the ground running with good pace and reliability. He says that it is the best Formula 1 car he has ever driven. Now he has never driven a championship winning car, but it is a very positive call. That is all you can look for in pre-season testing.

They have also upset their rivals who are up in arms about this Mercedes look alike. They admit that it is not illegal but are none the less pissed off that Racing Point may have developed a better car, within the rules, on a smaller budget. I would call it a job well done.

Formula 1 2020 Preview: Alfa Romeo

Constructors Championship Odds – 1001.00

Kimi Raikkonen – 1501.00

Antonio Giovinazzi – 2501.00

With new revenues from Alfa Romeo, the team grew its workforce and improved its facilities last year. They have turned the corner and are now in a position to improve on their 8^th place last year. Arguably their driver line up is a weak link. Giovinazzi only scored 14 points, compared to Raikkonen’s 43.

The Italian looked out of his depth and while he was improving towards the end of the season, there must be better options out there. The Ferrari link is the answer as Giovinazzi is one of their development drivers, but Giovinazzi, in a Ferrari? Can’t see it myself.

Robert Kubica has joined as the reserve driver and he brings with him Orlen, the Polish petrochemical company, who will now be the co-title sponsor along with Alfa Romeo. That will help with the finances.

Overachievers

Alfa Romeo is very much a Ferrari B team and in the same way that Toro Rosso have punched above their weight in years gone by, Alfa Romeo, will benefit from shared technologies with Ferrari.

Their 2019 car was a bit unpredictable, strong on some tracks, poor on others. The first test saw them put in a lot of laps which was the plan. First test for getting data and aiming to find the performance in the second test.

Some track observers have said that its mid corner stability was poor, and we did see a few spins which may back this idea up. It certainly will be shown up in Melbourne if this is the case.

Straight line speed was impressive, and they set some eye catching times. It is very likely they were low fuel runs and not representative of any great leap in performance.

Formula 1 2020 Preview: Haas

Constructors Championship Odds – 2001.00

Kevin Magnussen – 2001.00

Romain Grosjean – 2501.00

Haas survived a torrid 2019. The sponsorship deal with an energy drink manufacturer with no product looked suspicious and so it proved. There was no money, never mind no drink. Their car looked great in testing but come the actual races and it was a disaster. The car was a dog and the team could not work out why. On such a modest budget of $150million, they couldn’t spend their way out of trouble, and they ended up 9^th.

This drop in performance will have negative impacts on future income and the team desperately needs new investors/sponsors but they are in that vicious circle of decline. The need to improve but trying to do it with less money.

There was a wind tunnel correlation problem which was hopefully fixed in time for the design of the 2020 car. Initially they thought it was the tyres which where the problem and time was wasted barking up the wrong tree.

The new car has been designed to improve slow corner downforce and have less drag in a straight line. It seems to have quite a high rake, much like the Red Bull. The rear axle has been moved further rearwards to improve tyre wear on the rear tyres and produce more downforce from the floor.

Will New Design Address Weaknesses?

Obviously, the new cars design is addressing the problems of last year’s car. The proof of the pudding is in the eating of course but we should remember that last year’s car was, when everything was just right, was very quick, in qualifying at least. If they have addressed the weaknesses that blighted last year’s cars race pace, they could bounce back fairly dramatically.

The first test was very uneventful, but Haas cars caused two red flags. Grosjean spun off and damaged the rear wing while Magnussen had problem with a rear tyre being deflated after it came off the rim is a high load corner. They got in the fewest miles in the first test which is a negative, but team boss Guenther Steiner was happy with the test despite the limited running, describing the first two days as ‘very good’. They think that the changes made have worked.

The tyres got the blame for last year’s woes, but they eventually worked out that an aero problem was causing the rear tyres to overheat which killed their race pace and on hot conditions they were in big trouble.

Testing results suggest that Haas have made good progress on long run pace and that was their big weakness in 2019. However, the one lap pace has fallen back but you don’t get any points for qualifying. They still look to be in the third division of Formula 1.

Formula 1 2020 Preview: Williams

Constructors Championship Odds – 3001.00

George Russell – 2501.00

Nicolas Latifi – 2501.00

Remarkably they are still in business despite losing $25 million in 2019. Their $125 million budget didn’t cover the $150 million cost of coming last and scoring just one point and even that point was earned in the steward’s room and not on the track. They increasingly rely on pay drivers and sponsors with more money than sense. Like Ferrari they get a historical performance bonus which helps but with Kubica leaving and taking his backers with him, Unilever parting company at the end of this year, the future looks bleak. They are just treading water, waiting for what, I do not know. They won’t even have enough money to worry about breaching the spending cap on 2021, if they last that long.

Williams last GP win was back in 2012 and before that, 2004. Their hay days are a long way in the past. They have scored only eight points in the last two years. The speed of the decline has been shocking, with Williams third in the championship in 2014 and 2015 and now the absolute backmarkers.

More Of The Same For Williams?

This year’s car has a new look thanks to a different paint job but the car itself is an evolution of last year’s car with no fundamental concept changes. Now, with a car that effectively scored no points in 2019, I might have wanted to change the concept because it clearly was a poor one. The team have tried to address the weakness of the 2019 car, but where do you start?

It was quite a list. Improved cooling, reduced weight, improved brakes have been mentioned but they are trying to revive a corpse. ‘A continuous development of the FW42’ sounds an awful lot like trying to polish a turd.

Robert Kubica has left and been replaced by Canadian pay driver, Nicholas Latifi. They have also signed an Israeli driver, Roy Nissany as their reserve driver along with Jack Aitken and Jamie Chadwick.

Things Can Only Get Better

On the positive side, at least they had a car ready to take part in testing this year. With a car that was so bad in 2019 it should be much easier for Williams to make one of those big steps forward than it is for Mercedes to improve on near perfection.

However, they have a lot of ground to make up and due to their limited resources, they can’t just start from scratch. So, the team have concentrated on the biggest problems, not all the problems. Formula 1 cars are complex beasts and you can’t just try and fix a few parts and hope they work with the rest of the car.

This year’s car really should, really must be, an improvement on last year’s effort. Will they be able to move off the bottom of the table to join even the lower midfield? Time will tell.

Downforce Improved

George Russell was saying the right things about the car after the first days testing. They got plenty of laps completed and he said that the car was much better to drive, the handling more predictable and the build quality was much better. They have improved the cooling which allows for tighter bodywork and improved downforce.

The braking was said to be a vast improvement and just that one factor is making the car much more driveable. A cynic might say that they came out on day one of the test with a light fuel load, just to give the employees something to smile about after a couple of very difficult seasons.

They started to have some reliability issues as the first test went on and missed most of the third day when the power unit packed up. The car is a clear improvement, but where that leaves them in the pecking order is not yet clear, but the direction of travel is positive.

Power Unit Issues Could Be Costly

There were more power unit woes in the second test and they were on their third one by the second day and they ended up getting through four power units across the two tests. This cost valuable track time and after a promising start to testing, problems are emerging. Mercedes themselves suffered power unit problems and both teams have suffered MGU-H problems so there may be a weakness in this year’s Merc power unit.

The car is a definite improvement, its faster and easier to drive. That should be enough for them to get involved in the lower midfield, maybe get off the bottom of the table, but unreliability would be a real kick in the teeth. It remains the slowest car, but the improvements mean that they should be able to take advantage of other teams problems. However, don’t expect more than a lucky point or two.

Formula 1 2020 Preview: Conclusion

As usual we cannot take the times from the six days of testing as gospel. There are know unknows and unknow unknows. What we can expect is for there to be three levels of competitiveness. The big three of Mercedes, Red Bull and Ferrari will effectively be the Premier League, Racing Point, Renault and McLaren are the Championship, fighting to be best of the rest and on occasions racing for a podium finish. The remaining four teams will be racing for minor points and trying not to be last.

What has been universally agreed is that Mercedes go into the season with the best car, the best team and arguably the best driver. In the turbo-hybrid era Lewis Hamilton’s world championship form figures read W/W/2/W/W/W. Mercedes record in the Constructors Championship is better still, W/W/W/W/W/W. There are very few reasons to believe that anything will change in 2020. The team remains stable in terms of personnel, they have always scored well in terms of continuity. They have massive resources in terms of budget and quality of its workforce.

There were some problems with the power units in testing for both Mercedes and customer team, Williams, but when we understand that Mercedes ran the equivalent of 13 race distances, perhaps it is not surprising that a few problems arose.

Ferrari Fans Worried

Ferrari have left people hoping that their form in testing isn’t a true reflection of the real pace, that they were ‘sandbagging’, holding back their performance until Melbourne. That falls into the area of wishful thinking. Teams don’t do sandbagging these days, maybe they might run the power units at less than peak performance but with just six days to test the car in anger, you have to push it to find out where you need to improve.

The fact is that Ferrari haven’t won a driver’s championship since 2007 and the constructor’s championship since 2008. They have the resources but lack the kind of management culture needed to succeed in modern day Formula 1. Their return on investment is appalling and they could sign up the best drivers in the world, and still lose. They could design the best car on the grid, and still lose.

Their last great period of success came between 1999 and 2004 when they were run by an Englishman, had the car designed with a British based South African designer and had a Frenchman doing their politics, a very important job at Ferrari, and they had a German driver.  It was an Italian team run by a united nations of talent. Now, it is an Italian team.

Red Bull Could Be A Threat

Red Bull have had more success than Ferrari since 2008, winning four constructors and drivers titles between 2010 and 2013. However, the start of the turbo-hybrid era saw them left behind in the power stakes. Mercedes had a huge advantage and Red Bull floundered with unreliable and under power Renault engines. They finally ended that relationship and teamed up with Honda, who themselves had struggled to compete against the power of the Mercedes and Ferrari engines.

Red Bull continued to make great cars but without sufficient power they were limited to winning on the slower tracks. They remained part of the top three teams, picking up reasonable prize money. With good financial backing, they continued to be a ‘top team’ looking for the right power unit. They seem to have found that in Honda. It has taken years, but, as was inevitable, Honda have cracked it. Red Bull now have the power to compete.

They also have a driver, Max Verstappen, capable of beating Lewis Hamilton. Verstappen is still young but now has five full seasons in F1 to learn the ropes and mature into a more complete driver. He has eight GP victories to his credit and was 3^rd in the drivers championship last year. Not bad for a 22 year old.

Can Anyone Challenge The Big Three?

As for the rest of the field we have an interesting midfield but can any of them seriously challenge to big three for race wins? We have not seen a single GP victory for any team outside of the big three in the turbo-hybrid era. There have been a few podiums but only eight over the last four years.

With very stable regulations for this season it should be possible for the midfield to close the gap to the top teams. They are not spending money addressing new rules and can instead refine their existing machinery and try and copy the more successful teams’ designs. The problem is that the gap is a big one to close and the 202 cars design/build is the priority for resource allocation.

McLaren did make real progress last year and got a podium finish in Brazil, albeit with two Ferrari’s and one Mercedes out of the running. They have successfully reorganised the team, brought in good people and picked up a lot of new sponsors. From heading to oblivion, they are now heading in the right direction. They may still be disadvantaged by the Renault power unit not being the gold standard, but it is closer than in recent years.

Racing Point Could Be Competitive

Racing Point have decided that copying the best design on the grid is a good plan. One wag went as far as to call them ‘Tracing Point’, such is the resemblance to last years Mercedes. They have the state of the art Mercedes power unit and gearbox so we must assume that they will be competitive in 2020. They are a team that have performed strongly in recent years. Financial problems held them back in the last couple of years but since 2014 they have scored five podiums. They slipped to 7^th last year as they rebuilt the team after administration. In 2018 they lost the 59 points scored before going bust but in reality, they scored 107 points and finished 5^th. 2017 Saw them finish 4^th as they did in 2016.

With the new investment kicking in, expect Racing Point to be in the hunt for some podium finishes in 2020. Sergio Perez is an experienced and accomplished driver, especially good at managing his tyres. Lance Stroll is OK in the races, but unless he can improve his qualifying performance, he might cost the team 4^th place in the constructor’s championship.

Time For Renault To Deliver

Renault need to improve on their 5^th place last year. They are a works team with a bigger budget than Racing Point and to be beaten by a Mercedes customer team, and/or McLaren, a Renault customer team, would be a failure. Heads would roll and even their future in the sport open to question. Testing didn’t really help us get a grip on their potential. They never did a comparable long run to measure them against the opposition. However, they looked to be 1 second off the leading pace on the short runs. The car that will run in Australia is expected to be a significant upgrade from the one we saw in testing and Renault are a bit of an unknown. They are some that think they are set to be best of the rest, but not everyone agrees.

Formula 1 2020 Preview: World Drivers Championship

This looks to between two drivers, Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen. There is no obvious reason to suspect that Mercedes will not have the best package again and there is no reason to suspect Hamilton is getting any slower.

Max Verstappen has the experience and skill to match Hamilton but what he needs is the machinery to allow him to do so. The hints from testing suggest that the Red Bull is indeed closer and crucially, ready to be competitive from the first race of the season.

Others near the top of the betting markets are Charles Leclerc, Valtteri Bottas and Sebastian Vettel.

Bottas has the same equipment as Hamilton but he has never really mounted a serious challenge to his teammate. He started last season very well, but quickly faded away and finished 87 points shy of his teammate. There is no reason to believe that he is suddenly going to close that gap. Indeed, Mercedes don’t want him taking points off Hamilton, something that would help Verstappen.

Leclerc The Real Deal

Charles Leclerc looks to be the real deal, but he has just two seasons in F1 and just one at Ferrari. He is still prone to making errors and he is still learning. He is also driving for a team that consistently underperforms and is currently under the Corona virus cloud of doubt. There is a real risk that Ferrari might have to miss a race or more. That would be enough to end any hope he has of winning the championship.

Testing wasn’t very impressive from Ferrari. They are certainly shy of Mercedes performance. To me they look shy of Red Bulls performance and they might even be susceptible to Racing Point or McLaren, at the start of the season at least.

Sebastian Vettel has the same car/team problems as Leclerc with the added problem of having a quicker teammate to confront. He failed to do that last year and Leclerc is only going to get better. Vettel won’t be getting better and he has form for failing to deal with quick teammates. He has also lost his number one status in the team.

Hamilton A Worthy Fav

Lewis Hamilton is the 1.57 favourite and it is hard to argue with that. His past form is excellent, and he still has the best package at his disposal. Max Verstappen is the 6.50 second favourite. He hasn’t had the best car during his time in F1, but he has still won races. He is the clear number 1 in the Red Bull team. The Red Bull look close to Mercedes on performance and they are a team with a good track record of developing the car through a season. If they can start as the second-best team, he is in with a chance. It will be tough and to be honest, the value in the odds is marginal.

Formula 1 2020 Preview: 2 points Max Verstappen to win the 2020 World Drivers Championship @ 6.50 with Ladbrokes, Coral.

The Constructors Championship looks like going to Mercedes once again. Bottas might not be good enough to trouble Hamilton, but he can win a few races and get a lot of podiums. It will be harder for him this year as Verstappen will likely be more competitive, but the Finn is a solid number two driver. Red Bull have Alex Albon as their number two.  A driver with one season in F1 and only half of that in the Red Bull.

Ferrari have a good driver line up. Vettel, for all his faults, is a four-time World Champion. Leclerc has the talent to win Championships, just maybe not in a Ferrari. That stronger driver line-up should allow them to defend second place. But, expect Red Bull to be closer as Albon improves.

Mercedes are just 1.29 to make it seven Constructors titles in a row. Not my kind of bet but a lot better than leaving the money on deposit at the bank for a year.

Formula 1 2020 Preview: Other Ante Post Season Bets

Most of the driver match bets are not all competitive. Most are pretty obvious and priced accordingly. One that is worth a small bet is Danill Kvyat to beat Pierre Gasly.

Gasly was promoted to Red Bull at the start of last year. He was inexperienced and couldn’t cope with the pressure of Red Bulls demands and the pace of Max Verstappen. Gasly was getting lapped by the Dutchman in the same machinery. He was dropped in the summer and demoted to Toro Rosso. He was much happier there, lower expectations and all that, and his performance picked up but is he a future champion or a top team driver? No.

Kyvat Could Be Set For A Decent Season

Danill Kvyat has had a chequered career. He was a bit of a crash magnet and he too fell foul of Red Bulls absurd demands on young drivers and he was dropped by Red Bull in 2016 and demoted to Toro Rosso. It is often forgotten that he finished 7^th in the Championship in 2015, beating Red Bull teammate, Daniel Ricciardo, who is not a bad driver.

He was then dropped by Toro Rosso for the 2018 season and he joined Ferrari as a development driver. Toro Rosso then re-employed him for the 2019 season. He was third in the German GP and scored 37 points in the season. Kvyat is now a father, he has grown up a lot, is very experienced and quick. There are a few rough edges still there, but he is a good performer.

Gasly out qualified Kvyat 7-2 when he returned to Toro Rosso and in the races it was 6-3. The young Frenchman deserves favouritism based on those races, but I don’t rate him that much more highly than Kvyat.

Formula 1 2020 Preview: 1 point Daniil Kvyat to beat Pierre Gasly @ 3.75 with Ladbrokes

Formula 1 2020 Preview: Drivers Championship Betting Without the Big Six

It’s surprising that only one bookmaker has bothered to price up this market but it must be said that bookmaker apathy towards Formula1 gets bigger with every year of Mercedes dominance.

William Hill have priced up the market and make Perez the most likely to be ‘Best of the Rest’ over the season. Racing Point were a big talking point in the pre-season tests. They were consistently quick and reliable with the ‘Pink Mercedes’ mixing times with the top teams. Many analysts still have them outside the ‘premier league’ of the top 3 teams and the thing that must be remembered is that Racing Point are still not a big team. They are growing but they do not have the resources of the top teams. Like everyone else, they are having to assign a lot of resources into next years car. That is when the big changes kick in and everyone needs to get it right for 2021.

Racing Point have said that the car in Australia will have significant upgrades and there will be one more upgrade around the time of the Spanish GP. After that, it will be all hands on the 2021 machine. They will not win a development race, especially against Renault and McLaren, their two big rivals for best of the rest.

McLaren Could Improve

McLaren developed their car well throughout 2019 and they are a bigger team than Racing Point. The new car looks to be a further improvement, much more drivable. My guess is that they will still be able to put some resources in to 2020 so long as it makes financial sense to do so. They finished as ‘best of the rest’ in the constructors championship last year after a quiet winter test.

Renault have the resources to carry on developing. However, they are looking like being a little behind Racing Point and McLaren at the start of the year. Operationally they have not been the best and lost their way on development last year. Riccardo is a top driver and he won’t be far away if Renault can give him a good car.

McLaren were the most improved team last year, finishing a clear 4^th, 54 points clear of Renault. Sainz finished as best of the rest in 6^th place, thanks to Red Bull dropping Gasly and promoting Albon mid-season.

Formula 1 2020 Preview: 2 points Carlos Sainz to win the drivers championship ‘without the big 6’ @ 4.33 with William Hill

The Formula 1 2020 Preview for the Australian GP will follow later this week. Updates for qualifying and the race will be posted on the TXODDS app over the weekend.

 -JamesPunt