2021 Emilia-Romagna GP Tips by James Punt
2021 Emilia-Romagna GP Preview
The second race of the season sees a return to Imola for the 2021 Emilia-Romagna GP. After a long absence from the calendar, Imola made a return in 2020, and it was the scene of yet another Mercedes 1-2. Bottas qualified on pole but it was Hamilton who won the race after Bottas car hit some debris and lost performance. Max Verstappen had passed Bottas for second place but suffered a blow out and was spun off the track and out of the race.
The surprise package here last year was Alpha Tauri. Pierre Gasly qualified fourth but had to retire on lap 8 after a coolant leak. Teammate Daniil Kvyat had qualified eighth but finished a season best fourth. Alpha Tauri had done some pre-season testing at Imola and clearly that paid off. They also done the same this year, running an old car to get new driver Yuki Tsunoda up to speed. Given how brightly Alpha Tauri started this season they will be of great interest this weekend. Their base is only a few kilometres down the road from Imola and this is very much their home track.
Strange Race Last Season
The two McLaren’s finished seventh and eighth and the two Alfa Romeo’s ninth and tenth. It was a strange race with a virtual safety-car and latter an actual safety car which helped some and hurt others. I would tend to look at qualifying when looking for form clues from that race weekend. There were five DNF’s as well, including Max Verstappen, whilst his teammate, Alex Albon, had one of his bad races, spinning whilst running fifth and finishing last in 15th place.
Teams that impressed in last year’s qualifying here were Mercedes and Alpha Tauri. Red Bull where in their usual place, while Ricciardo got his Renault up to a good fifth. Teams that underperformed were Racing Point (now Aston Martin) who failed to get a car into Q3, McLaren were below their seasonal norm as where Alfa Romeo.
We have just the opening race and testing on which to draw on for 2021 form, and things do look different this year.
2021 Emilia-Romagna GP: Who’s hot and who is not post Bahrain?
Comparing the qualifying times of the 2020 and 2021 Bahrain session we can see how much time teams have gained, or lost, relative to the pole position times. The biggest improvement has come from Alfa Romeo, followed by Red Bull, Alpha Tauri, Ferrari and McLaren. There were negligible improvements for Williams and Alpine while Mercedes, Aston Martin and Haas have all lost time relative to last year’s qualifying performance.
It is interesting that the five biggest improvers are teams that have received a significant improvement in terms of power. Alfa Romeo and Ferrari have the improved Ferrari PU, Red Bull and Alpha Tauri have the totally new Honda PU and McLaren are using Mercedes power this year rather than the Renault PU. The losers are the two low rake cars and Haas, which is just a basket case.
Mercedes No Longer Fastest
The fastest car is no longer the Mercedes. The new regulations regarding the floor, rear brake duct and diffuser, have hurt the lower rake cars more than the high rake designs. This will not be a quick fix for teams such as Mercedes and Aston Martin. Mercedes has the better capacity to find a solution, but the general consensus is that it will take them another three or four races to sort it out.
There is another school of thought that believes that Mercedes may be stuck with a disadvantage for the whole season. Red Bull cannot take the chance that they will be the quicker car for the whole season, and they need to take advantage while they are on top.
Red Bull did not manage to do that in Bahrain, for a number of reasons. Verstappen got a comfortable pole position, despite a damaged floor which cost him an estimated 0.1 second. In the race, his Red Bull quickly developed a differential problem which was said to have been costing him 0.3 seconds per lap across the first stint.
The race stewards then threw Mercedes a bit of a lifeline by allowing them to run off the track at turn four, gaining some 0.2 over Verstappen who was sticking to the track limits. Strangely, when Red Bull told Verstappen he could run wide at turn four, the stewards suddenly changed their mind and told both teams to desist. That had given Mercedes 29 laps of advantage and with Hamilton winning the race by just 0.745 seconds, it gave Mercedes the race win.
Poor Perez Performance
Red Bull were further hurt by Sergio Perez having a poor qualifying and failing to make Q3. Things got worse on race day when his car stopping on the formation lap. He switched it off and back on again, got going, but had to start from the pit lane. He had a very good race and made his way up to fifth by the end of the race, but his woes had left Verstappen once more having to fight two Mercedes singlehanded. What should have been a comfortable win for Verstappen ended up with a narrow win for Hamilton.
Verstappen did overtake Hamilton for the lead, going on the outside of Hamilton at the controversial turn 4. Verstappen had to go round the outside as Giovinazzi’s Alfa Romeo was blocking any chance of going up the inside. The outside line meant all four wheels were off the track, and Verstappen had to give the position back, which he did very quickly. Too quickly. Had he let Hamilton past on a different part of the track, he would have had a better chance of making another overtaking move.
It was a race where a lot of factors conspired to deny Red Bull the win.
Red Bull Have The Best Package
We now have Red Bull having the best package but through a combination of circumstances, they failed to make their advantage count and are already 13 points behind. They need to strike back this weekend. They have a very competitive package, but they still need to operate at a very high level to make sure they can beat Mercedes.
Red Bull had reliability problems which was another factor that cost them the race and Perez is not yet up to speed. They need him up and in the mix as soon as possible. If this were a school report for Red Bull it would read ‘Very promising but can do better’.
Mercedes have something of a dilemma after the first race. They were around 0.5 off the pace of a fully fit Red Bull in qualifying. That is a big gap. In the race the gap is smaller, but we did not get an accurate picture thanks to Verstappen’s differential problem. They have conceded that the low rake concept is part of their problem but also the new Pirelli tyres are hurting performance.
Power Units Set For Year
Toto Wolff has said that it will not be possible to simply copy Red Bulls high rake concept. That would mean changing their suspension and other settings which is not easy. The regulations for this year mean that the power units are set for the year, no midseason upgrades are allowed. All major parts such as suspension like wise. The teams are free to work on the aerodynamic surfaces, but all the big stuff is set in stone.
That we now have a cost cap and limits on wind tunnel time CFD limits and so on, also means that they cannot just throw unlimited resources at the problem and spend their way out. The valuable resources must now be rationed between improving this year’s car and developing next years. For now, Mercedes say that they will not be changing the rake on their car but will try and get the most from what they have got. Mercedes is too good not to be able to improve, but they are no longer the favourites.
Best of the rest?
Behind the ‘big two’ we have McLaren looking next best. Norris finished fourth in Bahrain, but they had been just sixth and seventh in qualifying and nearly a second off the pace of Verstappen on pole. In the race Norris was 46 seconds behind the winner. That puts the gap between the top two and the best of the rest into perspective. Mercedes have fallen back, but the big two remain comfortably ahead of the pack.
It could be argued that Alpha Tauri are best of the rest. Gasly out qualified both McLarens and on a harder tyre. His race was ruined when he hit Ricciardo early in the race and had to stop for a new front wing. Ricciardo’s car was also damaged, and he limped round to finish seventh. The second Alpha Tauri driven by Tsunoda finished a decent ninth place but he had failed to get into Q3 on the medium compound tyres and stated 13th. We really didn’t get to see the true potential of the Alpha Tauri’s but saw enough to think that they are in the hunt for the ‘best of the rest’ tag.
Encouragement For Ferrari
Ferrari had a weekend which offered some encouragement. The car is a better package than it was last year, but the race pace was lacking after Leclerc had qualified an excellent fourth. McLaren were confident that they had the race pace to beat the Ferrari and it turned out to be the case. Carlos Sainz finished eighth on his debut for Ferrari. A solid if unspectacular display.
The group of three, McLaren, Alpha Tauri and Ferrari do look to be the ones vying for best of the rest this weekend and for the rest of the season. All will be working to improve their packages and Alpha Tauri say they have small improvements for the next few races both a more substantial revision when we get to Spain.
2021 Emilia-Romagna GP: Midfield battle
Behind McLaren, Alpha Tauri and Ferrari, we have Alpine, Alfa Romeo and Aston Martin in the lower midfield.
Aston Martin, being a close relative of the Mercedes, is suffering from the same problems, compounded by a very poor test with not enough mileage, and by Sebastian Vettel, who looked every bit as bad as he did in 2020. Vettel was out qualified by Lance Stroll and he didn’t even make it out of Q1. He wasn’t helped by a badly timed yellow flag, but he was already in trouble by that point.
The race saw Vettel crash into the back of Ocon’s Alpine and pick up a well-deserved 10 second penalty. It was another crash when in close proximity with another car and that does not bode well for a team that look to be starting races in the middle of the grid. He just can’t get close to the car in front without risking hitting them.
Tough Decisions
Aston Martin now face some tough decisions. Do they divert resources to trying to improve what isn’t a good car under the new regulations, or just right the season off and concentrate on the more important 2022 car? They have a lot of new sponsors on board and there will be pressure to improve performance, but a short-term gain could lead to a long-term loss. They also have to think about Vettel.
He must up his game otherwise his future must be bleak. He was second best to Stroll all weekend in Bahrain and that is not good enough for the ‘star’ driver Aston Martin signed up. The fact that Vettel also picked up 2 penalty points and 5 place grid penalty for failing to abandon his qualifying lap after Mazepin spun, was something that would be disappointing for a rookie, and a four-time World Champion should do better.
Alpine Must Do Better
Alpine didn’t impress in Bahrain. Their testing form was hard to call but when it came to qualifying, we saw Fernando Alonso drag his car up to ninth with Ocon unable to make it out of Q1 (he was another hampered by the yellow flag) and he was out qualified by the Williams of George Russell. The cars true pace lies somewhere between the two. Ocon finished the race 13th, ahead of just three cars.
Alonso had to retire with overheating problems, caused by some rubbish entering the brake ducts. The team are concerned with cooling the power unit in hot conditions so that is something to watch out for when he get hotter conditions. Alpine are planning improvements to address weaknesses in the car. There will be significant aerodynamic updates on the car from this weekend with more to come.
Alfa Romeo have benefitted from the improvements to the Ferrari power unit and they are on the cusp of making Q3 and scoring points, but probably need one or two problems for cars ahead of them. Based on the qualifying performances in Bahrain, Alfa Romeo have made the biggest relative gain compared to 2020 so they can be expected to make Q2 easily, and Q3 is not out of the question, although starting 11th with a free call on tyres is probably better than being 10th and stuck with soft tyres.
Back of the pack
That leaves Williams and Haas bringing up the rear. Haas have decided to write 2021 off and are just running the car to bed in their two rookie drivers. They do look like the need a lot of bedding in, Mazepin especially. It only took social media a lap to come up with a new nickname for him. Mazespin. He was dreadful in Bahrain, but the car is poor and they are going to struggle. Haas will have some new parts for this race, parts that were not ready in time for the Bahrain GP. That will be that for the season and their only ambition is to be competitive with Williams.
Williams looks to have made some progress but nothing great. Russell was able to make Q2, but he was doing that last year. Latifi was half a second ahead of the fastest Haas in qualifying and it is safe to say that Haas will need a lot of luck not to finish bottom of the pile this year.
The 2021 Emilia-Romagna GP Track
The Autodromo Enzo e Dino Ferrari is a fast anti-clockwise, old school F1 track. It is much less forgiving than the Shakir circuit on which these 2021 cars have run on so far, both testing and the race. The track is much more flowing than Shakir but is also power sensitive and whilst all the power units are not as far apart as they once were, this will likely favour the Honda and Mercedes powered cars.
There are plenty of quick changes in direction so the drivers will want a well-balanced car that they have confidence in. That may not be ideal for Aston Martin and Mercedes. The Red Bull looks to be a very stable car and while Sergio Perez isn’t yet totally comfortable with yet, Max Verstappen does, and he starts as the marginal 2.38 ante post favourite.
Not only is this a power sensitive track, but it is also downforce sensitive as well. In testing and at the Bahrain GP, Red Bull have shown that they are top of the class in this area. Mercedes is struggling to recover the downforce lost to the regulation changes, and that is hurting their pace, most notably in qualifying.
The weather is likely to be different too. Cooler and possibly showery on race day and that could show the tyres in a different light.
2021 Emilia-Romagna GP: The Weather
Usually, we don’t go racing in Europe until May and early spring in Italy can be quite cool. This weekend’s forecast is for a sunny but cool Friday, around 12-14 degrees, with the breeze picking up in the afternoon. Saturday should see a little more cloud, similar temperatures, and a small chance of a shower in the morning. Race day is when it might get interesting. The temperature drops a degree or two, it will be cloudy with the possibility of light rain.
As ever with weather forecasts, they don’t always come true. Any rain that does fall is not expected to be heavy. A couple of days ago the forecast was saying the probability of rain/drizzle on Sunday was around 70%, but this has receded as the week has gone on. It is now forecast as a 25% chance of very light rain. It would be interesting to see how the cars, with reduced downforce, will behave on a fast racetrack with a greasy surface, it is increasingly looking like a dry race.
Change in the weekend’s schedule
Due the Duke of Edinburgh’s funeral on Saturday, the schedule for this weekend’s sessions have been changed. Qualifying will start an hour earlier than planned and will start at 2pm local time, 1pm BST. As a result, FP3 starts an hour earlier. Fridays two free practice sessions will start 30 minutes earlier. The timing of Sundays race is not affected.
Race Winner
Nothing that happened in Bahrain has changed my mind that Red Bull and Verstappen are the combination to beat. Reliability issues with both cars does dampen the enthusiasm somewhat, but a number of circumstances conspired against them, and Hamilton only won by a fraction of a second.
Mercedes will be aiming to narrow the gap to Red Bull, but Red Bull will be pushing ahead with improvements and I expect the gap to still be there this weekend.
This is a power sensitive circuit, and the revamped 2021 Honda power unit has removed any power advantage Mercedes held over Red Bull. The fact that the Red Bull is a more stable car should help driver confidence if we did get damp conditions on Sunday. Verstappen was dominant in qualifying in Bahrain and this Imola circuit is hard to overtake on and another pole (for which he is the 2.00 favourite) will just increase his chances in the race.
2021 Emilia-Romagna GP Tip: 3 points Max Verstappen to win the Emilia-Romagna GP @ 2.38 with William Hill
Other Markets
Alpha Tauri impressed in testing and backed that up with great pace in Bahrain qualifying. It didn’t work out in the race, but they come to a track where they were very strong at last year, in good shape. Gasly qualified fourth here in 2020 but had to retire early. His then teammate took fourth place in the race. Alpha Tauri used Imola for the shakedown of this year’s car and while that is of limited value, it can only be an advantage. Tsunoda had extensive testing here in a 2019 car and the team should be very well prepared for one of three home races for them. Like Red Bull, they have a well-balanced car and powerful engine.
2021 Emilia-Romagna GP Tip: 1 point Gasly to finish in the top 3 @ 6.50 with Skybet
2021 Emilia-Romagna GP Tip: 1 point Tsunoda to finish in the top 6 @ 3.00 with Skybet, Ladbrokes
Last year saw Gasly fourth in FP1 (the only practice session in a 2 day race weekend) here and he arrives this year with an Alpha Tauri which has moved up the pecking order. There may be no spectators present, but this is still Alpha Tauri’s home race, and they will want to get a good result. A good showing in practice will be sure to get their car in the papers on Saturday. The temptation to have a lap on fumes may be hard to resist.
2021 Emilia-Romagna GP Tip: 1 e/w point Pierre Gasly to be fastest in FP1 @ 41.00 with BET365
2021 Emilia-Romagna GP Tip: 0.5 point e/w Tsunoda to be fastest driver in FP1 @ 41.00 with BET365
With Mercedes stronger on race pace than one lap pace, Max Verstappen looks a good bet for pole position and what would be his third in a row. Sergio Perez is not yet driving instinctively in the other Red Bull and the best of the rest pack could only manage a time 0.68 slower than Verstappen in Bahrain. It does look like a bit of a penalty kick for Verstappen in qualifying.
2021 Emilia-Romagna GP Tip: 3 points Max Verstappen to qualify on pole position @ 1.83 Generally Available
McLaren were best of the rest in the Bahrain GP with Lando Norris finishing a distant fourth. We didn’t get to see where Gasly would have finished had he not had the early coming together with Ricciardo. The McLaren was stronger than Ferrari over the race distance but it was the Ferrari of Leclerc who qualified fourth. His teammate, Carlos Sainz, qualified and finished eighth and the most famous Italian F1 team will be looking for another double points finish. On a track were overtaking is hard, a good grid position is important, which should help Ferrari a little.
