2021 Kempton Boxing Day Tips

Dave Stevos has already previewed the King George Chase, check out his ante-post tip here. He also likes one in the Welsh National on the 27th, click here to see what he fancies at big odds. We’ll have daily previews from all the biggest meetings in the UK and Ireland during the busy festive season. Leopardstown and Limerick preview is already up on the blog. Check out Dave’s 2021 Kempton Boxing Day tips and preview below for all live ITV Races.

1.20 Kempton – Novices’ Handicap Chase (0-140)

A tight, eight runner handicap and none of them can be discounted with much confidence. The ground is currently on the quicker side of good to soft but there is rain forecast overnight. It’ll depend how much falls but you would think the worst the ground will be is good to soft, soft in places. The mudlarks won’t be happy but there won’t be any excuses for the rest. One horse who will definitely be right at home on good or soft ground is Jacamar. Trained by Milton Harris, this horse last won on Boxing Day in 2020 at Wincanton off 127.

That was a handicap hurdle (21f sft) and he is rated just 3lbs higher over the bigger obstacles. The son of Maxios has had just three starts over fences and he produced his best effort yet when going down by a head to Our Power at Wincanton (20f gd). He probably should have won that race but he was looking around as they approached the last and he ploughed through it. That came off a mark of 128 and he is 2lbs higher today. I don’t think that is a prohibitive rise and if the cheekpieces help him concentrate better, he is more than capable of hitting the frame at odds of 14/1.

2021 Kempton Boxing Day Tips: Jacamar e/w @ 14/1

1.55 Kempton – Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)

An absolutely shocking turnout for this Grade 1 with just four fighting it out for a £100k purse and a 56k first prize. It is essentially just a match between Northern raider Ahoy Senor and the Paul Nicholls’ trained Bravemansgame. The bookies make Bravemansgame the narrow favourite at odds of 10/11 and Lucinda Russell’s charge is 6/5. Over today’s trip of 24f, Ahoy Senor is the one I’d want to be on if I was having a bet.

These two met over the same distance over hurdles at Aintree in April and Ahoy Senor ran out an easy winner. To be fair to Bravenmansgame, he did have a hard race at Cheltenham and that could be used as a valid excuse. He has made all on his first two chase starts, both of which he won impressively over 21f at Newton Abbott and Haydock. However, he has to prove he gets 3 miles and looking at his pedigree, I’m not sure he will. Just one of his dam’s siblings managed to win at 24f and he just about lasted home. His sire didn’t stay 3 miles either so it will be fascinating to see if he stays.

Ahoy Senor has a lot more stamina in his pedigree. His half brother, Snuff Box, has won over 25f and his grand-dam is a half to a 31f winner. Ahoy Senor dotted up in a 23.5f Grade 2 at Newbury last time, making amends for his unseat at Carlisle on chasing debut. He is 2/2 at around 3 miles and no doubt Derek Fox will look to turn this into a proper stamina test. As a betting heat, this makes zero appeal but it’s definitely a race worth watching. No bet.

2021 Kempton Boxing Day Tips: No Bet

2.10 Wetherby – Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

The big race of the day at Wetherby is the Grade 3 Rowland Meyrick Handicap. We were on Top Ville Ben last time out when he ran in the Becher. He was jumping and travelling well but he took a crashing fall at the 12th fence. Phil Kirby’s charge last tasted victory in this race off 154 in 2019 and he is 4lbs lower now. He is 3/5 in chases at Wetherby but he has too many questions to answer at the moment, especially after taking such a heavy fall at Aintree.

Instead, I am going to take a chance on the horse that finished 3rd in that 2019 race off 155, Lake View Lad. Nick Alexander’s stable star actually won this too in 2018 off 147 and he is only 2lbs higher today. Unlike Top Ville Ben, this son of Oscar has run well on his last couple of starts. He was a very creditable 7th in the Scottish National off 155 and he finished a decent 3rd on his seasonal return behind Blaklion at Haydock (25f hvy).

The return to slightly better ground will be in this grey’s favour and he is starting to become nicely handicapped. It was only six runs ago that he landed an Aintree G2 in December 2020 (beat Native River/Frodon) and a repeat of that would surely suffice here. His career form figures at Wetherby read 113 and Henry Brooke has only finished out of the first three twice from seven rides on him. At odds of  11/1, Lake View Lad looks a cracking e/w bet.

2021 Wetherby Boxing Day Tips: Lake View Lad e/w @ 11/1 nap (4 Places)

2.30 Kempton – Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1)

Another small field for this Grade 1 but unlike in the Novice Chase, that is usually the case with this race. It is such a pity that Silver Streak is not around to defend his crown. He destroyed Epatante in this last season and it would have been great to see him do it again. Last year’s runner up is odds on to regain the crown she won in 2019. She dead heated with Not So Sleepy in the Fighting Fifth last time and there is likely to be little between them again. The more rain that falls the better it will be for Epatante but I think she could be worth taking on with Tritonic.

Last February, Alan King’s son of Sea The Moon shot into the reckoning for the Triumph Hurdle with a commanding 10L win in the G2 Adonis. However, he didn’t get up the hill at Cheltenham and that was also the case on his first two outings this term. Tritonic finally rediscovered his best form when winning a G3 handicap easily at Ascot (17f gd/sft) a week ago. It was a lovely confidence booster ahead of his return to the scene of the best win of his career. The 4yo has a bit to find on official ratings with the top two but he is still a young horse and there could still be plenty more improvement to come on flat tracks over hurdles. At odds of 6/1, Tritonic is the each way selection.

2021 Kempton Boxing Day Tips: Tritonic e/w @ 6/1

3.05 Kempton – King George Chase (Grade 1)

I have already previewed the King George Chase in depth. Tornado Flyer was my original ante-post selection and I am happy to stick with him. The rain that has fallen won’t damage his chances and I am happy to see Danny Mullins jocked up. He was on board when he finished a decent 3rd in the Ryanair last season so he is capable of getting a good tune out of him.

I am surprised that Lostintranslation has drifted so badly. He is as big as 16/1 with one firm now and that is a massive price. Yeah, he ran crap on his two previous attempts at this race but he had excuses, especially last season. I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him at those sort of odds but I am keeping the faith with the Flyer. Hopefully it is a superb race and may the best horse win.

 2021 Kempton Boxing Day Tips: Already advised Tornado Flyer e/w @ 33/1

Dave Stevos