2021 Mexican GP Preview and Tips

There are now only five races to go and next up is the 2021 Mexican GP. In the race for the title, Red Bull’s Max Verstappen leads Lewis Hamilton by 12 points after his US GP win (advised 2.75).

Red Bull have closed the gap in the Constructors Championship to 23 points and with Perez going for a hat trick of podiums this weekend, it is game on for both championships. This weekend’s Mexican GP and next weekend’s Brazilian GP have been good venues for Verstappen and Red Bull, so the pressure is on Mercedes.

2021 Mexican GP: Boring Circuit

The Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez in Mexico City has hosted five races since 2015. It is a bit of a boring circuit to be honest. The first sector is basically two long straights linked by a tight double chicane, very fast, and creates a lot of first lap incidents.

The second sector starts with three slow corners followed by a short straight into a few fast left-right curves and the short final sector is a slow, twisty sector through the baseball stadium which hosts a massive crowd. A third DRS zone was added in 2019 to help overtaking but the DRS system here is very ineffective due to atmospheric conditions.

The many straights mean that power is rewarded but the slower sections require high downforce. The main characteristic of the circuit is that it is 2200 metres above sea level. Air is thin and has 25% less oxygen than is found at the usual circuits. This reduces the power of the engines, but that is the same for all of the power units. Well it should be, but it hasn’t been in the past.

Mercedes Ordinary At Altitude

The normally mighty Mercedes is very ordinary at higher altitudes. Even at the relatively modest altitudes of Austria, it is down on performance, and this is Austria on steroids. Next weekend’s Brazilian GP lies somewhere between Austria and Mexico in terms of altitude, so this looks like a tough fortnight for the reigning champions.

Mercedes have won here, the first two races in 2015 and 2016, but that was early in the turbo-hybrid era and their rivals were well behind them in terms of power. However, by 2017 and 2018, Red Bull won with the much-derided Renault power unit.

Ferrari Have Good Record

Ferrari have also shown good performance here, getting pole position in 2017 and 2019. Lewis Hamilton won the last race here in 2019 but he was rather fortuitous. Verstappen was the fastest qualifier but was given a three place grid penalty for a yellow flag infringement after Bottas had crashed in the dying minutes. That left the Ferrari’s with a front row lockout, but they had pit stop problems during the race, Verstappen’s race was blighted by a puncture and the cards fell right for Hamilton.

This will be the second time that Red Bull have raced here with the Honda power unit. There is something about the Honda turbo unit which has been very effective at high altitude. Even when it was very poor and uncompetitive, the Honda powered performed better in Mexico.

Stuck in the back of the Red Bull in 2019 (when it was still relatively poor) Verstappen was fastest in qualifying, all four Honda powered cars made Q3 and three finished in the top 9. With this year’s Honda power unit being at least an equal of the Mercedes PU, the Red Bulls, and Alpha Tauris, could be very much in the driving seat.

Aerodynamic Efficiency

The aerodynamic efficiency of the Red Bulls kept them competitive here despite their relative lack of power and now that they have a fully competitive power unit and a track where their aero prowess has traditionally been rewarded, they will be looking not just to win, but to dominate.

That means Perez once again playing a leading role and another podium finish, preferably a second place this time. Red Bull have finished 2-3 and 1-3 in the last two races and it is about time they got their first 1-2 of the season.

Mercedes have been suffering with power unit reliability problems recently, most of them on Bottas’ car. It is possible that Hamilton has to take some pain and change another ICU. Doing it on a track where Mercedes is expected to be second best is always more likely and it would not be a complete surprise to see a penalty this weekend.

He may not be alone. In 2017 we saw four drivers take the full penalty for new power units here. Anyone running a Mercedes PU may be considering taking a hit this weekend in order to have a clear run at the last four races, but as always at this time of year, we can only wait and see.

Will Fancy Suspension Be Effective?

The fancy suspension system on the Mercedes should be an asset on a track with a lot of straights. However, it is hard to say if it will be as effective in the thin air of Mexico City, for the same reason as the DRS is not very effective here. We will see but the science says that it should not produce the same increase in straight line speed as it would at sea level.

This is a race which looks to be set up for a Red Bull win. Sergio Perez would love to win his home race, but he will have to play a supporting role to Max Verstappen, and he isn’t quick enough in any case.

History has shown that this circuit is very much a car circuit as opposed to a driver circuit. The way a car goes on the track in the peculiar atmospheric conditions here is more important than driver inputs. Getting a ‘Noah’s Ark’ grid here is common with teammates lining up beside each other.

The Red Bull’s high rake design produces more downforce than the Mercedes low rake design. All the cars will be running with a maximum downforce set up to compensate for the downforce lost to the thinner air but traditionally Red Bull do better here with that required set up.

Power Unit Temperature Issues

There is also the matter of cooling to consider. The Mercedes power units struggle with their turbo’s overheating in the thin air, much more so than the other units. The track, with long straights going into slow corners, requires a lot of heavy braking. That generates a lot of heat in the brakes. The thin air doesn’t allow the brakes to cool down as much on the straights as they usually would.

Mercedes is much more on the edge when it comes to brake cooling. We have seen their drivers having to manage their brake temperatures at times, rather than compromising their aero set up by putting on bigger brake ducts. The two teams have quite different brake duct designs and Red Bull’s allows for greater cooling without having to have bigger ducts which increases drag.

Formula 1 is a very technical sport, and this race is a bit of an outlier. The thin air makes this track a very different proposition to the vast majority of circuits. In the same way as Monaco and Monza are on the extremes of downforce set up, Mexico City presents a unique set of circumstances which reward some cars and punish others. Mercedes comes here with a degree of trepidation, knowing that their package is one that gets punished, while Red Bull knows theirs will be rewarded in relative terms.

Max Verstappen is the 1.73 favourite, short looking, but more than justified.

2021 Mexican GP Tip: 2 points Max Verstappen to win the Mexican GP @ 1.73 with Unibet, Ladbrokes

Sergio Perez has started to deliver on Sundays. Back-to-back podiums are what Red Bull require of him and he needs to do it again. With a car advantage on a ‘car’ track, he should be able to do so. His qualifying pace is always a worry, but a podium is an achievable goal.

2021 Mexican GP Tip: 2 points Red Bull double podium finish @ 2.20 with Ladbrokes

Outside of the championship race we have close battles for the best of the rest and teams vying for the highest championship placing and associated prize money.

McLaren lead Ferrari by just 3.5 points in the battle for third place. McLaren have been helped by switching to Mercedes power in 2021, but this is one race where they might fancy still having Honda power. Ferrari upped their power output with their recent power unit upgrade and that might be the difference this weekend.

Ferrari have gone well here in the past. Leclerc was the second fastest qualifier the last time we were here in 2019 and Vettel on pole in 2017, Raikkonen scored two podiums for them in 2017 and 2018. Leclerc has finished fourth in three of the last four races and Sainz was third in Russia. The Ferrari will like the many slow corners and the stadium sector is right up their Strada.

Leclerc Could Nick Podium Place

This is a venue at which Carlos Sainz has never scored a point from five starts, with two thirteenth places his best result. He has a good chance to change that this weekend, but Leclerc would seem more likely to lead the Ferrari attack. He was seventh for Sauber on his track debut and fifth for Ferrari in 2019 having started from pole position after Verstappen’s penalty. Leclerc could get a podium but may need some luck to do so, unless Mercedes really struggle. If Hamilton were to take a 5-place grid penalty that would increase Leclerc’s chances.

It is hard to find a value bet for Leclerc. He is 1.83 to be the best of the rest with Ladbrokes. He has been at the last two races and this venue should suit his car. The Frenchman is 3.50 to finish on the podium with the same firm. Leclerc has only had one podium finish all season (three for Sainz) but he has been fourth six times and three times in the last four. He is knocking on the podium door; will it open this weekend? The fact that we have a favourable venue might just be the key.

2021 Mexican GP Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to finish on the podium @ 3.50 with Ladbrokes

The next big battle is Alpine and Alpha Tauri, scrapping over 5th place. Alpha Tauri are ten points behind, not really able to capitalise on Alpine’s double DNF in Texas. Gasly also had to reply and Tsunoda only managed to pick up two points for his ninth-place finish. Alpha Tauri have a very similar design philosophy to Red Bull and share the same Honda power units.

That high rake Honda combination should be potent in this environment and Gasly should be OK in terms of a potential power unit penalty, having already taken a hit. I believe Norris and Ocon, two top 6 contenders have yet to take an extra PU and they may have to this weekend, we can only speculate. Stroll is another who might need one. Vettel took his in Texas as did Alonso and Russell.

Gasly has had six top six finishes this season and three in the last six races (Belgium not included). He remains a very good qualifier with eleven top sixes in qualifying. He has had two top ten finishes here and always finished the race, so he knows what to expect. This should be another opportunity to finish high up and score more valuable points for the team.

2021 Mexican GP Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to finish in the top 6 @ 2.38 generally available

Yuki Tsunoda in the second Alpha Tauri has never raced here which is a disadvantage but that was the case in Texas, and he qualified tenth and finished ninth. He has been working with Alex Albon as a driver coach and he has qualified tenth in the last two races. Is the penny starting to drop? It may be. He is a rookie, and this is a learning year so he should improve as the season progresses. His best qualifying of the season came at the Styrian GP, another relatively high-altitude track, and he should have a competitive car under him again this weekend.

2021 Mexican GP Tip: 1 point Yuki Tsunoda to finish in the points @ 2.50 with Betvictor

Alpine in the Renault guise went OK here in the past. Their power units were more competitive here than on most tracks so Alonso and Ocon could be competitive. Alonso took his new power unit last time out so he should have a penalty free weekend. The Alpines tend to be better on race day and any bets on them may be placed post qualifying. The Alpha Tauri is the better car and but for breaking in a rookie, they should be ahead of Alpine.

Aston Martin are stuck in seventh place well behind the Alpine/Alpha Tauri battle and well ahead of Williams in eighth. Vettel has gone well here for Ferrari, but this doesn’t look a good track for a low rake, Mercedes powered car. Stroll may well take a penalty.

The weather forecast is deliciously uncomplicated. Sunny and dry for all three days and temperatures around 20 degrees.

-JamesPunt