2021 US GP Preview and Tips

A return to the USA and The Circuit of the Americas in Texas for the 2021 US GP. We didn’t get a US GP last year, but in the six turbo hybrid era races here, it has been a Mercedes/Hamilton fortress. He won four on the trot between 2014 and 2017 and has never finished worse than third. Mercedes have had four 1-2 finishes and Kimi Raikkonen’s win in 2017 for Ferrari is the only time we have we seen anything other than a Mercedes win the race.

The championships are entering the final stretch and Max Verstappen comes into this race with a six-point lead and he and Red Bull are looking at this weekend as a damage limitation exercise. Mercedes holds a 36 point lead in the constructors championship and they will be looking to extend that with two Red Bull friendly tracks coming up in Mexico and Brazil.

Decent Track

This circuit is another Herman Tilke design, and he has borrowed some ideas from Silverstone and Suzuka with a series of fast left-right turns in sector one before arriving at a hairpin before a long, slightly curved straight in sector two, a la Hockenheim. The final sector is a slower, technical, eight corner lay out before a, uphill blast on the start-finish straight into the opening hairpin. It is a decent track which does allow for good racing.

One significant feature of the track is its bumps. Built on marshy land, it settles every year and bumps crop up in new places. It was problematic for the Moto GP riders a couple of weeks ago and there has been work carried out to try and grind down the bigger ones.

The lay out of the track, with its distinct sectors, means it requires a compromise set up and practice will be busy as the teams try and find their best set up.

Dry Conditions Likely for the 2021 US GP

The weather has played a big part in the last two races of 2021, but this weekend it looks like a dry one, which will be a bit of a relief for all concerned. Temperatures will be around 30 degrees all three days, there will be more cloud on Saturday and a 25% chance of a light shower, while Sunday will be partly cloudy and humid but little chance of rain.

The battle for the race win will once again be between Mercedes and Red Bull, Hamilton and Verstappen. The expectation is that Mercedes will have the edge here. They have enjoyed a straight-line speed advantage since midsummer and that will make them competitive in sector two and up the start finish straight but it is not a purely power dependant track and Red Bull will be good in parts.

I expect it to be close. Both cars go well on most tracks and while Mercedes may now have the best car now, it is not by a big margin and one stat I read this week is that Max Verstappen has led more laps this season than all the other drivers put together, which shows the cars versatility.

Perez Letting His Side Down

The battle for the constructor’s title is being lost by Sergio Perez. Hamilton and Verstappen have been neck and neck for the whole season, but Perez has only outscored Bottas three times in 2021 and has not finished ahead of him since France. I expected he would be the final piece of the jigsaw which could wrench the constructors title off Mercedes, but he has just been another Red Bull number two failure.

The next three races are crucial for Red Bull if they are to have any chance. This one may be damage limitation, but Mexico and Brazil are where they need to dominate, so Perez needs to up his game, or its Mercedes title once again.

The Battle for third place is no less intense going into the closing stages of the season. McLaren lead by 7.5 points from Ferrari. Both Ferrari drivers have taken new power units and the associated penalties in recent races, as has Ricciardo, but I believe Norris has not yet done so. McLaren may be waiting until Mexico to do it but beware if going ante post on Norris, he may take the hit at any time.

2021 US GP: Penalty Factor

This does not mean the penalty factor is over for the big two. The way the system works is that taking a new internal combustion engine attracts a 10-place penalty. The second time a driver does it, the penalty is only 5 places.

 Max Verstappen took a completely new power unit, a 20-place penalty, but another completely new one and he only gets a 10-place penalty. If he took just a new ICU, it would only be a 5-place penalty. A 5-place penalty isn’t that big a deal for the big two, so don’t be surprised to see more, but smaller penalties being taken. This weekend, however, looks to be free of the dreaded penalty system, for the top two teams at least.

The new upgraded Ferrari Power unit is giving Leclerc and Sainz better performance and Ferrari are looking to overhaul McLaren in the remaining six races. Both drivers have some decent form here with Leclerc fourth in 2019 while Sainz has always finished in the points, with a best of sixth place and worst in eighth.

Norris has just the one race here, seventh in 2018 and Ricciardo a couple of podiums for Red Bull. Ricciardo looked to have turned a corner after the summer break, qualifying fourth in Belgium and fifth in the Italy and Russia, but he was struggling again in Turkey.

McLaren usually go well everywhere but they did struggle in the Netherlands and Turkey. Both those tracks were very green and maybe a return to a regular, more heavily used, racetrack will help.

Sainz In Good Form

Carlos Sainz is in good form and with no penalties this weekend, he could have a good race on a track on which he goes well on. He had a spell of crashes which could have hurt his confidence, but he is delivering good performances on Saturday and Sunday. It looks like a reasonably promising track for Ferrari so it will be interesting to see how they go in free practice.

Alpine are in fifth place, 12 points clear of Alpha Tauri. Neither driver has taken on an extra power unit but perhaps Renault are happy with their outlook. They have scored points in all the last 15 races and Alonso has put in his two best qualifying efforts of the season in the last two races. He is a class act and back to full speed. Ocon has scored in five of the last six races and always looks likely to get a top 10.

Alpha Tauri are heavily reliant on Pierre Gasly. Seven top 6 placings in qualifying over the last nine sessions have only resulted in three top six places on Sunday. He has yet to score a point here, but the car should get him home in the points if all goes well. Tsunoda has shown some better qualifying form in the last two races, but he is far from banker material for any points.

Aston Martin Disappointing

Aston Martin continue to underperform. 31 points off sixth placed Alpha Tauri and only two points scoring finishes in the last four races. Vettel is again looking second best to Lance Stroll. Vettel gets paid the big bucks and he isn’t delivering the goods. Stroll has beaten Vettel in seven of the last eight races. The only one were Stroll failed to beat Vettel was Hungary when Stroll crashed out at the first corner. Vettel was later disqualified. I do not count the official result of the Belgian GP because there was no actual race.

Williams have made hay when circumstances have been strange and are safely in seventh place. With settled weather conditions this weekend, it will be hard for them to pick up any more points, unless we see a lot of retirements, which we might. The average attrition rate here since 2014 is 4.17, with a low of 2 DNF’s in 2019 and a high of 8 in 2015. It is both demanding mechanically, the bumps play a part in that, and we do see a lot of wheel to wheel racing and associated collisions.

Overtaking is relatively easy but qualifying looks to be important as the race has only been won form drivers starting on the front row. The best two qualifiers in 2021? Hamilton and Verstappen, but they have only qualified 1-2 in five of the sixteen races.

2021 US GP: Ante Post Selections

For the race outright, Lewis Hamilton is the 1.91 favourite, Max Verstappen 2.75. Between them they have won 11 of the 15 actual races so far. Bottas, winner in Turkey, is a 15.00 shot. It would seem unlikely that anyone else will gate crash their party this weekend, unless of course, they take each other out Monza style. Bottas will only be allowed to win if Hamilton is out of the frame, ditto Perez if Verstappen is not in contention. Perez has rarely ever been in the frame this season and makes no appeal at 23.00.

There is a bit of value in Verstappen’s odds. He has not won here before, but he was just 1.2 seconds behind Raikkonen in 2018, despite starting eighteenth. In 2017 he finished fourth from sixteenth on the grid. This year Verstappen has a much more competitive package and hopefully starts on or around the front row.

Hamilton looks a little short at odds on. He has only won two of the last eleven races whereas Verstappen has won five. Verstappen has had five of the last ten pole positions (including Belgium), Hamilton three. The truth is that but for being punted out of the British GP when leading, having a race ending blow out when leading in Azerbaijan and having his car heavily damaged by an out-of-control Bottas in Hungary, Verstappen would be well clear in the Championship.

Hamilton is so short here due to his historic form. That does carry some weight, but this season he doesn’t have a package which is well clear of the field. We are in a different game.

2021 US GP Tip: 2 points Max Verstappen to win @ 2.75 with Unibet

We have had seven drivers outside of the big two teams have at least one podium finish in 2021 (not counting the Belgian non-race). Many of them have been the result of freakish races, or retirements from the big teams. Norris came third in the rain affected in the Emilia-Romagna GP, Norris and Sainz both finished on the podium in Monaco, but both benefited from pole sitter Leclerc not starting and Bottas retiring after a wheel nut stuck.

Vettel and Gasly both had podiums in Azerbaijan. That was a mad race, it usually is, with Verstappen and Hamilton both out of the points due to freak incidents. Norris was on the podium in the Austrian GP and that was entirely meritorious having qualified second and picking up a 5 second penalty. Ocon and Sainz both had a podium in Hungary. In that race we had Bottas taking out a large chunk of the field on the first corner, including both Red Bulls and himself.

Surprise 1-2 Monza

Ricciardo and Norris were first and second at Monza and that was partly meritorious having lined up second and third on the grid. Ricciardo led the race from the start but was helped when Verstappen had a poor pitstop and then crashed with Hamilton, taking both out.

That helped Norris to second place. Bottas was effectively out of the race as he had to start from the back of the grid after a PU change. The last ‘surprise’ podium was in Russia, where Sainz was third in a race turned upside down in the dying laps by a downpour. At least he had been on the pace, and led the race in the dry, but it was still fortuitous.

The message is clear, if we are to see a surprise podium, it is likely because of rain or unpredictable freak events. Rain is not on the menu this weekend and we have never seen any exceptional results here in the turbo Hybrid era. We have seen some good drives through the field by out of position drivers (usually Red Bulls), but nothing mad.

Shocks Unlikely in the 2021 US GP

It doesn’t look like a good race to be looking for a surprise face on the podium, which is a shame because I quite fancy a Ferrari to do well, but doing well might just be a fifth or sixth.

Trying to pick which drivers are in the frame for a top 6 is easy, but there are just too many on the shortlist. Both Ferrari’s are very much in the frame and Carlos Sainz has gone well here in the past. Norris is usually thereabouts, Ricciardo is a regular despite dodgy qualifying, Alonso is putting himself in the picture with his recent qualifying performances as does Pierre Gasly. So that’s six drivers potentially looking for just two available top 6 places.

The only one who looks to offer any value is Fernando Alonso at 4.00. He has only scored 3 proper top 6 finishes so far and they were all in freaky races. However, his recent top 6 qualifying efforts have put him in the frame. It can only be a small bet as there are so many runners with claims and he still might take a penalty.

2021 US GP Tip: 1 point Fernando Alonso to finish in the top 6 @ 4.00 with Skybet, Pokerstars

The final ante post bet is for Lance Stroll to beat Sebastian Vettel. Having beaten him in seven of the last ten races you would think Stroll would be a short priced favourite but he can be backed at 1.91.

Vettel has a good track record with a couple of podiums for Ferrari, but he doesn’t have a Ferrari this year and his recent form has been poor.

2021 US GP Tip: 2 points Lance Stroll to beat Sebastian Vettel @ 1.91 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt