2021 Monaco GP Raceday Update

James Punt has already posted a number of ante-post selections for today’s big race. You can see them by clicking here. He has another couple of bets now that the starting grid has been confirmed. Check out his 2021 Monaco GP Raceday preview and tips below…

2021 Monaco GP Raceday Preview

We was robbed! Qualifying was a kick in the nuts with Leclerc’s crash ending the session just as Verstappen had set the fastest first sector time and heading for pole position, and a likely race win. Now he starts second, behind the fortuitous Leclerc, and with this being Monaco, that is where is he is likely to finish. There have been two winners here from second place here in the turbo hybrid era, so all hope is not lost. Charles Leclerc has a terrible record at his home race and has never finished a race here in F1 or F2.

Usually, at a normal track, there is a chance to make up a place at the start. However, the run to the first corner here is only about 150 yards. It would need Leclerc to make a real mess of his start if Verstappen was then to make the jump. The Dutchman will likely just have to sit in behind Leclerc and hope that he makes a mistake or a bad pitstop.

Our ante-post bet on Sainz to be best of the rest was also ruined by Leclerc’s crash. The Spaniard had been second in every session and was, like Verstappen, flying on his final qualifying lap, and the battle for pole looked to be between Sainz and Verstappen before Leclerc’s convenient crash ended the session prematurely. Sainz starts fourth and we really need Leclerc to come a cropper today which is why it won’t happen.

There is some talk of rain affecting today’s race. I have seen one forecast saying there may be some light rain late in the race. However, the chances seem remote, and it should be partly cloudy, 19 degrees and dry.

Dull Affair Ahead

The race is likely to be dull and processional. Yesterdays F2 race was like watching paint dry as even those smaller cars struggle to overtake in this narrow track. The order can be shaken up by accidents but the drivers these days realise that it is much easier to be a zero than hero at Monaco. The cost cap era means that repairing crashed cars is a much bigger negative than in years gone by. The drivers are under strict instruction to be careful.

There has only been one DNF’s in the last two races here and it will be interesting to see if that trend continues or whether the higher attrition rates of old return. From 2014 to 2017 saw a total of 23 DNF’S. But with drivers being briefed to be careful and reliability being so good these days, I would tend towards below average retirements.

The Pitstop crews will be under severe pressure and one single problem with a sticky wheel nut could decide the outcome of the race. This is one part of the sport where Red Bull are usually very slick although there was one year when they called a driver into the pits but for got to tell the pit crew to get the tyres ready. The result was a win squandered.

Ferrari’s Race To Lose

This is Ferrari and Charles Leclerc’s race to lose. They are literally and figuratively in pole position and not winning the race will be a massive failure. There is a outside chance that Leclerc’s car is carrying damage from yesterday’s crash. There was a lot of speculation that his gear box would be broken, and he would get a five place penalty for fitting a new one. Ferrari have examined it and have cleared it to race, saying that they would not take a chance if they thought it may fail in the race.

Ferrari haven’t won a race since Singapore in 2019 and there may be a bit of strategy rust. So long as Leclerc is leading after the first corner the race is going to be about executing a good strategy, and that may be Ferrari’s weak spot. They have been known to go a bit Mamma Mia when the heat is on, and it will be on.

Surprising Favourite

It is surprising, very surprising, to see that Max Verstappen is the favourite to win the race. He is a best priced 2.10 while Leclerc is available at 3.00. We have backed Verstappen at 2.50 ante post, but the value must be on Leclerc now. The choice is to let it ride and hope that Ferrari mess up, or to back Leclerc and hope that they do not take each other out on the first lap. I doubt they will. Verstappen is looking at the championship and with Hamilton starting down in seventh, he knows his job is to make a big dent in his 14 point championship deficit. If either Leclerc or Verstappen wins, we show a profit, however small, and a profit is never a bad thing.

2021 Monaco GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Charles Leclerc to win @ 3.00 with Betfair, Paddy Power

Red Bull may only have won one race here in the turbo hybrid era, but they have taken three fastest laps from six. They once again have the fastest car and while the fastest lap market can be a bit of a lottery, Verstappen must have decent chance on a track which suits his car.

2021 Monaco GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Max Verstappen to set the fastest lap @ 4.00 with Ladbrokes

With track position so important here Pierre Gasly looks a decent bet to beat Sergio Perez. Gasly starts sixth, Perez a very disappointing ninth. Having a quick car doesn’t count for much when you are back in ninth and Perez has not been good this weekend outside of FP1. Gasly likes the track and has finished seventh and fifth in his two starts here and set the fastest lap in 2018.

2021 Monaco GP RacedayTip: 2 points Pierre Gasly to beat Sergio Perez @ 1.85 with Unibet

-JamesPunt