2021 Monaco GP Tips and Preview by James Punt
2021 Monaco GP Preview and Tips
Four races into the season ahead of the 2021 Monaco GP and we now have a much clearer picture of the relative form of the various teams and drivers.
The battle for the championships is between Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen, and Mercedes and Red Bull. You can forget the rest. Hamilton has opened up a 14 point lead and is enjoying his best ever start to a season. Ominous.
Mercedes, on the back foot with an ill handling car at the start of the season, has improved their package and while not the dominant force of years gone by, are still favourites (1.20) to win the constructor’s title. That is not a reflection of the two team’s performance, but that of Sergio Perez.
The Mexican has not been able to get the most out of the Red Bull. Will he just be another driver that goes to Red Bull and gets put through the Verstappen mincer? It is hard to be a teammate to truly great drivers but is constantly changing the team number two the best way to go?
The Hamilton/Bottas line up gets some stick for Bottas being a weak link, but what he does is to pick up a lot of podiums and points and is the ideal number two. Red Bull have paired Verstappen with Ricciardo, Gasly, Albon and now Perez. All that since 2016.
Long Season Ahead
The season is going to be a long one. Despite cancelling the Turkish GP last week, F1 has replaced that with a second race in Austria, a good track for Verstappen, and the title races are far from over. The drivers’ Championship looks set to be close and run for the whole season. The Constructors title depends on Perez starting to deliver better results. He has had four races now and you can only give a driver so much time before things get tense, when questions are being asked and the driver starts to feel under real pressure.
Going to Monaco for the fifth race is not ideal for Perez. It is a track which shows no mercy. It is not enough for Perez to finish fifth, he has to beat Bottas, and he hasn’t done that yet. Even in the race where Bottas had a DNF, Perez finished out of the points. The risk is that Perez feels the pressure and pushes too hard on a track that punishes mistakes severely.
Former Giants
Behind the Big Two we have the not so big two, McLaren and Ferrari. Just five points separate these two former giants of the sport. McLaren have been on a steady path of improvement for a few years now and while they are not ready to win races on merit just yet, they can aim for occasional podiums, especially while Perez is struggling. Daniel Ricciardo is in the same boat as Perez, settling into a new team and struggling.
However, he is not a mile away form Lando Norris, their one lap pace is very similar, and he out qualified and finished ahead of his teammate in Spain last time out. He has scored points in every race, one of only six drivers to do so, and there is no need for panic at McLaren.
Ferrari have performed above expectations so far. Charles Leclerc has qualified on the second row in three of the four races and while the cars race pace is not quite as good, he is putting himself in the best position to get a podium if the big two have problems. Carlos Sainz is another driver who is taking time to settle into his new team but his qualifying pace in the last two races has been good, and like Ricciardo at McLaren, he is getting there. The McLaren vs. Ferrari battle may not be for a title but is no less interesting for that.
Alpine Making Progress
The third division is already detached from the McLaren vs. Ferrari battle. The group of three teams, The Three A’s, Alpine, Alpha Tauri and Aston Martin are within 10 points of each other, but they have scored just 30 points between them. Alpine look to be making progress, developing the car and their star driver, Fernando Alonso, is starting to play himself in, but he is still some way off his teammate.
Alpha Tauri have disappointed. The car is quick, probably quicker than Alpine, but the results are not there. On top of that is that their new boy, Yuki Tsunoda, is struggling. From the ‘best young driver for years’ in Bahrain, to a mistake ridden rookie. He is frustrated and trying to run before he can walk. This will be a very challenging weekend form him. Gasly is doing all the work at Alpha Tauri but he too will be getting frustrated by being unable to convert the pace of the car into better results.
Moaning Aston Martin
Aston Martin seem to be too busy complaining that it’s all so unfair, rather than trying to improve their car. Either they do that or give up on 2021. Lance Stroll is a driver with some talent, but he is not of the standing to be a driver that can lead a team, the owner’s son or not. That is why they pay the big bucks for four-time world champion, Sebastian Vettel. He is another of the drivers who has moved into a new team but a new team who have a poor car. It is a tougher gig than faces Ricciardo or Perez, but it is his job, and he is doing it badly. He remains pointless and is being out qualified and out raced by an average diver.
Monaco Form
The one-time jewel in the crown of Formula 1. That title may have been taken by Singapore these days, but Monaco is still compelling. As a race track it is poor. Overtaking is all but impossible and the race is decided by qualifying, race strategy and staying out of trouble. Not making even a small mistake is crucial.
Unlike most tracks, Monaco has not been a total fortress for the all-conquering Mercedes. In the turbo-hybrid era they have won four from six but had just one 1-2 finish. They have had three pole positions, again, not their usual kind of record. One reason is that Mercedes have built cars with a long wheelbase and they are not as nimble around the many slow corners here. Red Bull and Ferrari have had one win each.
2021 Monaco GP: Not A Happy Hunting Ground For Hamilton
Monaco has not been the greatest of tracks for Lewis Hamilton either. Bearing in mind that he holds so many records and is regarded as one of the sport’s greatest of all time, over his entire F1 career Hamilton has won just three Monaco GP’s and had two pole positions.
Other legends of the sport have had much better records. Senna won six, Schumacher five and Prost four. One of the reasons was that he was second best to his old Mercedes teammate Nico Rosberg, who won three Monaco GP’s in row here in 2013-2015. Valtteri Bottas has also beaten Hamilton twice in three races here as teammates.
Hamilton does have the best record of any current driver and in the turbo-hybrid era he has two wins, one second and two third places, only once failing to finish on the podium. His ‘poor’ record is relative.
Riccardio Has An Excellent Record
Other drivers who can claim to be something of a track specialist are Daniel Ricciardo who has one win, a second, two thirds and two pole positions. Sebastian Vettel has two wins, five seconds and one pole position. Carlos Sainz has been a Steady Eddy around this track, finishing in the points from all five starts.
There are some surprisingly poor records here. Max Verstappen has no podium finishes; Perez has failed to score a point in the last three and Charles Leclerc has two DNF’s from two starts.
The reason for the unusual formbook at Monaco is due to the nature of the track. The busiest guy is often the safety car driver. With the track being very narrow and unforgiving it is very difficult to clear crashed or retired cars from the track without a full safety car. This throws race strategies out of the window and introduces a bigger element of luck than would be the case on a normal circuit. That said we have not had a real surprise winner since 301.00 shot Olivier Panis won a rain affected race in 1996.
2021 Monago GP Starting Position Crucial
Much like Barcelona, this remains a track where getting a good grid position is important, but pole position is not essential. Of the six turbo-hybrid era races here, only three have been won from pole, but none from outside the first three on the grid and only once from outside the front row.
The easiest way to make up places here is to keep it out of the barriers and survive, taking advantage of retirements and getting lucky with the safety car. The not classified rate here since 2014 is 4.16 but it has been anywhere between one (the last two) and eight in 2014. The last two races here have been a bit dull, and the races here can be very dull or absolutely mental.
As a rule of thumb, if you qualify outside of the top 10, it is very hard to finish in it. Even with seven cars failing to finish in 2017, only three cars who started outside the top 10 finished in the points. In 2016 we had seven DNF’s and just two cars moved up into the top 10.
Unique Circuit
There is only one Monaco, and it is not always easy to say who is going to go well here as we have no similar circuit with which to compare it with. The usual way was to look at who was fast through the final sector at Barcelona. It is a slow twisty sector and if your car is good through it, it should perform well around Monaco. This year, that third sector featured the modified turn ten, which made it a little faster, so it remains to be seen if that guide still works as well as it has done in the past.
Red Bull are targeting a win here and one reason is that Verstappen and Perez were quickest in sector three at Barcelona. Verstappen was faster than the quickest Mercedes by 0.483 seconds in the race. That is the good news for Red Bull, the bad news is that the two Mercedes where third and fourth quickest in sector three. In Qualifying it was closer, with Verstappen just 0.105 faster than Hamilton.
Looking at the Barcelona sector three times, the form guide for this weekend’s race says we should have another close battle between Mercedes and Red Bull but Red Bull having the slight performance advantage. Ferrari look primed to be best of the rest, just ahead of McLaren and Alpine.
Wolff Favours Red Bull
Toto Wolff is making Red Bull the favourites to win this weekend, citing the cars speed in sector three at Barcelona and the higher downforce design philosophy at Red Bull. This does not mean Mercedes are out of the race, you only need to look at their record to see that. If they can find a way to get a Mercedes ahead on the track, they control the race, slower or not.
So far this season the Mercedes team has performed at a higher level than Red Bull. They are maximising their performance while Red Bull have let a few things slip. We have a race that Red Bull should win, perhaps that they must win, but they cannot afford the slightest mistake, from either driver or the strategists, or the pit crew.
The weather forecast is looking good for a dry and mostly sunny weekend with temperatures around 20 degrees. That is keeping the temperatures in Mercedes comfort zone although it could be a little tricky for Bottas to get his tyres switched on for qualifying.
Qualifying Holds The Key
The race largely revolves around qualifying. Hamilton has qualified on the front row in all four races so far, but he might miss out this weekend, if, and it is a big if, Perez can finally get it all hooked up. He got the front row at Imola and the second row in Portugal but was very poor in Bahrain and Spain. Perez’ record in qualifying at Monaco is reasonable but nothing special. In his first two years here, he crashed in qualifying but overall, he has out qualified his teammate six times from nine races. Verstappen’s qualifying record is not good here. He has crashed twice and set no time and only beaten his teammate twice in five attempts.
Hamilton’s qualifying record in Monaco is a mixed bag. From twelve qualifying sessions he has beaten his teammate six times while Bottas has outqualified his teammates 4-2, beating Hamilton once from three.
Qualifying here is tricky, harder than any other track as mistakes are usually terminal. For that reason, it is hard to be particularly confident that things will work out as they should. The drivers know that getting the best grid position as is possible is crucial, but they also know that if they push too hard, their weekend is effectively over. Luck often plays a role. A driver can be on a flying lap only to be caught out by somebody else’s crash. That is the case everywhere, but there is a bigger chance of a yellow here.
Verstappen Maturing
With Verstappen a more mature driver these days and performing well this season, Hamilton is at the top of his game and we should expect them to be able to get a job done. Bottas does have problems getting his tyres fired up if it is cold, but the conditions should be OK for him. Perez is the tricky one.
The Mexican has underperformed so far, and his problems have mostly been in qualifying. He was suffering with a shoulder problem in the qualifying session in Spain, in Portugal he was pretty much on Verstappen’s qualifying pace, but Verstappen’s best lap was deleted which flattered Perez. At Imola he was second, but again flattered by Verstappen’s poor Q3 lap and in Bahrain, he failed to make the medium compound work and didn’t make Q3.
Perez says he is getting more confident in the car, but we haven’t got much evidence of that and this is a track where confidence is currency. There are some fancy odds out there form him to out qualify Bottas, but they are fancy for a reason. He is very likely to have the quicker car and should out qualify Bottas, but ……
It is easy to overcomplicate things at Monaco, but it is better to understand the greater risks of punting here but still follow the form. Red Bull should have the faster car for this weekend. Max Verstappen in a faster car should get pole and win. He has not been made favourite. He should be. There is value. He might screw up. That’s it.
2021 Monaco GP Tip: 2 points Max Verstappen to be fastest qualifier @ 2.25 generally available
2021 Monaco GP Tip: 2 points Max Verstappen to win the Monaco GP @ 2.50 with Betvictor
One team who are hard to call is Alpine. They have a car that is good in slower corners which bodes well, but their sector three times at Barcelona where confusing. Alonso was seventh quickest in the race but fourteenth in qualifying. Ocon was seventeenth in the race, but sixth in qualifying. Both their drivers have not raced here since 2018 so they will have to get reacquainted with the demands of the track which further muddies the water for their chances.
The Barcelona sector three times suggest that it will be Ferrari as best of the rest but as usual, it will be very close. When it is very close in terms of performance, the driver can make the difference, especially on this track. Experience is an asset as it usually takes drivers a while before the penny drops here.
Leclerc Has Struggled At Monaco
Charles Leclerc, a native Monegasque, has not got a good record here. He has only had the two F1 races here, qualifying fourteenth for Sauber and sixteenth for Ferrari in 2019. His teammate was fourth. He crashed out in both races. He really wants to win his home race and he pushed too hard. The question is, has he learned his lesson? If not, it could be Carlos Sainz who gets best of the rest.
The Spaniard has performed well here. He has finished all five of his races here in the points and has been sixth in two of the last three. He has also out qualified his teammate in all five. Sainz is 1-3 down to Leclerc this season in qualifying which doesn’t bode well, but if Leclerc continues to push too hard, he could put himself in trouble. If he puts a foot wrong, Sainz should be there to take advantage.
2021 Monaco GP Tip: 2 points Carlos Sainz to be winning driver without The Big Two @ 4.00 with Ladbrokes
McLaren’s inter team battle is starting to get interesting. Lando Norris has taken advantage of Ricciardo’s settling period but it was Ricciardo who was the better driver in the last race in Spain. He was faster in sector three in both qualifying and the race and he is 3-1 up on Norris in qualifying so far. Ricciardo is a track specialist with a win, multiple podiums and two pole positions. Norris has had one race here, qualifying twelfth, behind his teammate, and finishing eleventh. This should be a great opportunity for Ricciardo to close the gap on Norris.
2021 Monaco GP Tip: 2 points Daniel Ricciardo to beat Lando Norris @ evens with Unibet
One team who should struggle again this weekend is Aston Martin. They were slow through sector three in Barcelona, and they may well have their third pointless race in a row. Sebastian Vettel has been second best to Lance stroll so far, 1-3 down to his teammate in qualifying and races. However, Vettel has been good around this track, winning twice and coming second five times and with just two DNF’s from twelve starts. Stroll has never finished better than fifteenth, never qualified better than eighteenth and never out qualified his teammate. While Vettel is lacking in confidence, he must have a decent chance of beating his teammate this weekend.
2021 Monaco GP Tip: 2 points Sebastian Vettel to beat Lance Stroll @ 2.10 with Unibet
There might be a bit of value in a speculative bet on Yuki Tsunoda to be the first driver to retire in the race. As a market it is a bit of a lottery but there are reasons to think he may well crash and if so, he might do it first.
Tsunoda’s rise to F1 has been rapid. He only had one season in F2 and that formula didn’t race here last year so the young Japanese driver has zero track experience. History has shown that rookies tend to struggle here. Verstappen crashed out in his first two races here, Leclerc ditto, for example.
Tsunoda is struggling after a promising start. His qualifying crash at Imola has not helped his confidence and he is clearly frustrated by his lack of progress. He wants it too much and we know what can happen here if an inexperienced driver wants to do well too much. Mazepin is favourite to retire first, which is understandable, but at least he has two F2F races around here and he finished both.
