2021 Newmarket Guineas Tips by Dave Stevos

by | Apr 28, 2021

2021 Newmarket Guineas Tips

It feels like the flat season is only properly kicking into gear this weekend as Punchestown draws to a close. The ITV cameras will be at Newmarket on Saturday and Sunday for the 2000 and 1000 Guineas. The first two classics of the season are always eagerly anticipated and both races look extremely competitive this year. Let’s hope we can find the winners of both! Check out Dave Stevos’ 2021 Newmarket Guineas tips below.

2000 Guineas

The boys are first up on Saturday for the 2000 Guineas. Usually there is a Coolmore hotpot dominating the market but that isn’t the case this time. Wembley has been the best backed of the Ballydoyle contingent with rumours abound that he will be the mount of Ryan Moore. He ran with credit in a pair of Group 1s at the backend of last season. He chased home Thunder Moon at the Curragh (7f gd) and St Mark’s Basilica at this track (7f sft). Mac Swiney also had his measure when they met in a maiden last July. So, the son of Galileo will need to improve to land this.

The one I am interested in at a bigger price is Lucky Vega. Trained by Jessie Harrington, this fella’s form is as good as, if not stronger than, the majority of his rivals. He was desperately unlucky in the 6f G1 won by Thunder Moon at the Curragh last season when he was denied a clear run by the winner at a crucial stage. I have zero doubts that with a smoother passage he would have gone very close that day. He ended up 2.5L behind the winner, 0.5L behind Master Of The Seas and 1L behind St Mark’s Basilica and Wembley.

Cracking Effort

He signed off last season with a cracking run over 6f here behind Supremacy. He just didn’t have the speed to cope with that 6f specialist. But, he was beat just 0.5L and he had Tactical and The Lir Jet well behind. Those two horses have boosted that form already this season. Lucky Vega also had The Lir Jet and St Mark’s Basilica well behind when winning the Phoenix Stakes last term. So, he has absolutely nothing to fear from quite a few of his 2000 Guineas rivals.

The one thing he has to prove is stamina. He has yet to race beyond 7f and all his wins last year came at 6f. However, his pedigree suggests that he should get at least a mile. His sire Lope De Vega produced the 2019 Irish 2000 Guineas winner Phoenix Of Spain and he has a 43% strike rate with runners between 7-9f. His Cape Cross dam is a half-sister to a 9f Listed winner and her Grand-Dam is a former 10f Group 1 winner in France. Quick ground will suit and when you consider how closely his form ties in with some of the shorter priced horses, Lucky Vega looks a cracking each way bet at odds of 20/1.

2021 Newmarket Guineas Tips: Lucky Vega e/w @ 20/1

2021 Newmarket Guineas Tips: 1000 Guineas

On Sunday afternoon it is the turn of the fillies to take centre stage. This time we do have a customary Coolmore favourite in Santa Barbara. This completely unexposed 8f maiden winner takes  a massive step up in class. Clearly, somebody somewhere knows something that regular punters don’t. The form of her maiden win doesn’t look overly strong and on that evidence alone, she shouldn’t be as short as she is. One thing that isn’t in dispute is that she is definitely bred for the job.  She is by Camelot and a half-sister to Iridessa and Order Of Australia. It would be no surprise if she won this, but she’ll need to improve markedly on what she showed last term.

One that sticks out as being potentially overpriced is Thunder Beauty. Trained by Irish 2000 Guineas winning handler Ken Condon, this filly was a big eyecatcher when staying on strongly for 5th in the Moyglare at the Curragh last season (7f gd). She has just over 2L to find with Pretty Gorgeous on that effort. Over this extra furlong, I reckon she will get a whole lot closer to Joseph O’Brien’s charge.

Bred For The Job

This filly is by Night Of Thunder, the winner of the 2000 Guineas a few years ago. Her Dansili dam won over as far as 13f so stamina shouldn’t be an issue and she is from the family of German 1000 Guineas winner, Quebrada. Ken Condon knows what a Guineas winner looks like having landed the Irish version with Romanised. He wouldn’t be running here unless he thought this filly had a serious chance.

The reason she is such a big price is probably because of her final run last season. She was well beat in the Prix Marcel Boussac but I am willing to forgive her that run on account of the bottomless conditions. This filly will be much better back on a sounder surface and Condon said a couple of weeks ago that he is very happy with her work. 25/1 looks a more than fair price on her Moyglare form and at those odds, she is the each way selection.

 

2021 Newmarket Guineas Tips: Thunder Beauty e/w @ 25/1

 

TX Markets offers Intelligent odds monitoring that lets you focus on both individual bookmakers’ odds changes as well as giving a global view of aggregated moves.

© 2021 txmarkets.com
Cookie Policy
Terms And Conditions

TX Markets encourages responsible gaming with :

Share This