2021 Qatar GP Raceday Update

Now, it’s time for James Punt’s 2021 Qatar GP Raceday update:

It is a bit difficult to do a race day update, when, if just four hours to go before the start of the race, you don’t know who will start where.

That’s not entirely true as we know that Lewis Hamilton will start from pole position. It is after that, that things are as clear as soup.

After the qualifying session had finished and all the interviews completed, footage came to light (here we go again) to show that Max Verstappen failed to slow down for double waved yellow flags following the incident were Pierre Gasly’s front wing detached from his car near the final corner. The rules are very clear here. Fail to slow down when shown double waived yellows and you get a penalty, probably a 5 place one.

Why the stewards looked at it for three hours before deciding to go to the pub and coming back to look again at 10 AM local time, is a mystery. He did, or he didn’t. The flags were shown only very briefly but that doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter if the track was clear, it doesn’t matter if Max didn’t see the flags, he failed to slow, in fact he set a quicker time. That should be the work of moments.

Yellow Flag

Shortly after Verstappen was told to appear before the headmaster at 10AM, Carols Sainz and Valtteri Bottas were also summoned for failing to slow under a yellow flag, not double waved yellows, but just a yellow. That is still a penalty but a lesser one, likely a three-place penalty.

So we have the drivers who qualified to start second, third and seventh on the grid, in a state of limbo.

The only thing that looks very likely at this stage is that Hamilton wins the race and it is just now a matter of how much of Verstappen’s lead he takes off.

We have no past form on this track to show us how easy or difficult making up places on track will be. The general consensus is that it will be difficult. There are few heavy braking areas, and it looks like a DRS pass down the straight is the only option.

If Verstappen has to start seventh, he will do well to make the podium.

Apart from Hamilton, there are other drivers who might benefit from the others misfortune. Pierre Gasly, whose broken wing was the trigger for the whole thing, would start second and he will be starting on the faster soft tyre, albeit from the dirty side of the track. The Alpha Tauri has been quick all weekend and he is now a podium contender.

Alonso A Podium Contender

Behind him is Fernando Alonso in the rival Alpine, he would likely start in third place and on the clean side of the track and also on the softs. Again, he suddenly becomes a podium contender. He is like shit off a hot shovel when it comes to starts, and off the clean side of the track on the soft tyre, he could well cause Hamilton problems.

Alpha Tauri and Alpine are tied on points in the constructor’s championship, so Alonso and Gasly are locked in mortal combat with Hamilton caught up in it. Those two could well be going hell for leather into the first corner and they will not be thinking about Hamilton’s championship ambitions.

Just over three hours to go…and still no word from the stewards. Maybe they think fans like the drama?

Hamilton is the 1.38 favourite to win the race as the markets have built in the likely penalty. I strongly suspect that even without any penalties, Hamilton will win the race, but he would be a bigger price.

Looking further down the grid, numbers 11 to 22 are all likely to line up as expected.

One Stopper For Perez?

Sergio Perez, so consistent lately, dropped the ball badly yesterday and failed to reach Q3. He starts in eleventh place with a free choice of tyres. That at least gives him and Red Bull a better strategic choice. Being a new venue, long run tyre wear is a bit of an unknown and Pirelli have brought their hardest range of compounds.

A one stopper looks likely but Perez, a tyre miser, will probably try to run a long first sting, possibly on the hard tyre, and then a sprint finish on the softs. There is a school of though which says those starting on the medium, or soft, will have to make two stops. That would be medium/soft, hard and then soft/medium for a sprint finish.

I suspect they will be durable enough for those starting on the mediums to switch to the hard and finish on that tyre. Gasly on the other hand may well be force to two stop. Perez would make good gains if those starting on the mediums had to make two stops, but it is not a sure thing.

Gasly Can Go Well

Likewise, Gasly’s strategy would be a good one if it is a two-stop race. Starting on the soft may help him overtake Hamilton, or at least stay ahead of Alonso, and not lose out by having to make an extra stop. Of course, that is assuming he starts second and not fourth. With now two and a half hours before the start of the race….there is still no news.

I will just have to take a guess that the rules will be applied as they have done in the past and that the penalties will be applied on the basis of 5 places for Max and three for Bottas and Sainz. Bottas’ penalty would mean starting sixth, on the dirty side and on the slower tyre. Not a good combination for the all-important start. The possibility for one of the outsiders to finish on the podium is improved.

2021 Qatar GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to finish on the podium @ 4.50 with Ladbrokes, BET365

Gasly is a 2.50 shot to be ‘best of the rest’ with Ladbrokes, joint favourite with Carlos Sainz. That seems a bit generous as he has been all week and any penalties will play his way. However, backing a driver twice usually guarantees that he fails to finish. Alonso at 5.50 in that market makes some appeal. He starts on the right side of the track regardless of penalties and with a good start on a track which may make over taking hard, it looks more between him and Gasly than Sainz, who starts seventh at best.

2021 Qatar GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Fernando Alonso to be the winning driver without the Big Four @ 5.50 with Ladbrokes

Alonso is 2.25 to beat Norris, again with Ladbrokes, but again that falls foul of the backing a driver twice guide. I am not sure the McLaren is going to enjoy all these long, fast corners but we shall see.

Charles Leclerc is another driver starting out of position and with a free call on tyres. Ferrari have changed his chassis after qualifying yesterday. A crack was found that that may explain why he was at a loss to explain his lack of pace. There is no penalty for this change. Haas had to change the chassis of Mazepin after FP as his chassis also developed a crack. The curbs on this track are not especially big but there are a lot of them and the cars are riding them at high speed. The cars are not holding up well.

The track, with lots of run off areas to protect the bike riders, looked like a lay out which help produce a race of very low attrition and a potential overs on the number to be classified bet. However, these car failures with the kerbs has dampened my enthusiasm a little, but Over 17.5 classified finishers has paid out in fifteen of the nineteen races so far and it is worth taking on at the odds.

2021 Qatar GP Raceday Tip: 2 points over 17.5 classified finishers @ 2.00 with Ladbrokes

Leclerc should be hoping to make it back into the top 10, but he is just 1.53 to do so, so little value there. Perez would make hay if it is a two stop race for those ahead, but he is just 1.62 to make the top six.

Tsunoda could be another beneficiary for any penalties and even if not he starts at least eighth. On a track where his lack of experience is less important, he is in a good position to score points. The car is very quick and if he can just keep out of trouble early on, he looks a reasonable bet to finish in the top 10.

2021 Qatar GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Tsunoda to finish in the points @ 2.00 with Hills

Two hours to go……and we still don’t have a grid……

No more bets for me. There are some others which are tempting, like Ocon to win Ladbrokes Group 3 at 2.30, but I am already taking a big risk backing Alonso for best of the rest, when we need him and Ocon to finish in the points for our sole ante post bet.

It is getting too late to just hang on and wait and see what the stewards come up with. Fingers crossed they do the right thing.

-JamesPunt