2021 Turkish GP Preview and Betting Tips

Last year’s Turkish GP was voted the best of the season by F1 fans. Why? Because it was a chaotic race caused by rain on a newly resurfaced track which turned the circuit into a giant skid pan. Entertaining yes, but it wasn’t a proper race. Will the 2021 Turkish GP be any better?

The FIA have said that the track surface has basically been power washed to improve grip. Pirelli will be bringing a softer range of tyres this year, the race is some six weeks earlier in the year and we should have warmer weather.

The weather forecast is not great. Friday will be bright and breezy for practice. Saturday will see light rain in the morning and be cloudier while race day is looking cloudy with some light rain in the morning. As with all forecasts, it will change but there is a chance of light rain affecting the track at some point in the weekend. It will be 20 degrees at best, but I suspect a few degrees cooler on Sunday.

2021 Turkish GP: A Lot Of Unknowns

The situation is that we don’t really know how the track will behave. Is the surface now suitable? Will the softer tyres make a difference? Will conditions be dry or wet? Not a great situation for making any ante post bets. Then there is the matter of grid penalties for drivers taking on new power units. In Russia we saw Bottas, Verstappen and Leclerc taking grid penalties for taking new power units. It is very likely that Lewis Hamilton and Carlos Sainz (now confirmed for Sainz) will have to take a new power unit, but will it be this weekend? Only they know and they may not make decision until after qualifying.

As a rule, teams like to take a grid penalty on tracks where they don’t expect to be fully competitive. However, it is hard to say which cars this track will suit. Last year was no sort of form guide as the track was a joke and it was rain affected for qualifying and the race. The rumours are that Mercedes will only give Hamilton a new power unit if he has a problem in qualifying and down the grid as a result. The US GP, or more likely, Mexican GP are much more likely venues for him to take a hit. That suggests Mercedes expect to be competitive enough to be competing for a win this weekend.

Purpose Built

The circuit is a purpose-built facility and considered to be Herman Tilke’s finest work. His design nicks some bits of Interlagos and it is not unlike Spa-Francorchamps, with fast sweeping curves and lots of elevation changes. It is quite a long lap, and the race will be 58 laps long.

The track was on the calendar from 2005 before dropping off in 2021. Those races were all pre turbo-hybrid era and not of much value as a form guide. Hamilton, Vettel and Raikkonen had all won a race here and Hamilton won last year’s freak show with Perez and Vettel also on the podium.

Lance Stroll qualified on pole in the wet, low grip conditions but he picked up some car damage during the race and he dropped down to finish ninth. Red Bull fitted Verstappen with a misaligned front wing, and he found himself off the road a few times, finishing sixth. Charles Leclerc was heading for third place until a last lap mistake let Vettel get past him. However, last year’s race was not a good guide, unless we have a repeat of the weather and slippy track surface.

Tyre Temperatures Key For Mercedes

Mercedes were way off the pace in qualifying here last year but this was all tyre related. It was just too cold for the Mercedes to get the tyres to switch on, whereas the Racing Point cars could, and they got the front row lock out. Come the race and after a few laps, Hamilton got the tyres up to temperature and was then the fastest car on the track.

Last year’s Friday practice sessions saw Max Verstappen fastest in both and Charles Leclerc third and second but how much we can read into that is unclear. Alpha Tauri showed well in both sessions as well.

If Spa-Francorchamps is a reasonable form guide, we can look at the Belgium GP for some inspiration. No. The Belgian GP never happened due to rain and even the qualifying session was turned on its head by the weather. FP1 was damp and saw Bottas fastest from Verstappen.  While the dry FP2 saw Verstappen fractionally faster than the two Mercedes. The two Alpines showed well as did Aston Martin with Gasly up in fifth. Again, it is not a great guide, but it is all we have got.

2021 Turkish GP: A Shot In The Dark

The message is clear, betting this race ante post is taking a bigger step in the dark than normal.

We should expect the usual Red Bull vs. Mercedes battle at the front, unless Hamilton takes a new power unit, but is there anyone else that can join the hunt for podiums?

We saw McLaren win in Italy, on merit, and Lando Norris was heading for victory in Russia before a late deluge turned the race on its head. He has scored four podiums and Ricciardo a race win. We should expect McLaren to be knocking on the door once again.

Carlos Sainz very nearly landed our 151.00 bets in Russia. We got the place money for him qualifying second, but he was one place out in the race, finishing third having led the race early on. Sainz now has scored three podiums, Charles Leclerc one. Ferrari must enter calculations although this layout may not be quite as good for them as Sochi was. With the team deciding to take a new power unit and penalty for Sainz, that may be a sign that they don’t really fancy their chances this weekend.

Alonso Could Surprise

Alpine have scored points for fourteen consecutive races. Also, Alonso has driven some good races here with four podium finishes in the olden days. If we get changeable conditions, Alonso may be a surprise package. He has finished top 6 in three of the last four races and this is a track he knows better than most of the grid having finished seven races here and scored four podiums.

The Alpine is a solid car, very consistent and he is back to full speed after his time out of the sport. Hopefully he doesn’t have to take any penalties as he is the only ante post selection this weekend.

2021 Turkish GP Tip: 2 points Fernando Alonso to finish in the top 6 @ 3.50 with Hills, Skybet

Alpha Tauri have not been executing things well in recent races. They had scored points in every race until the Italian GP, and they failed to score in Russia as well. The car still looks reasonably competitive, and they go well anywhere. Yuki Tsunoda has not raced here before so he is at a disadvantage.

Aston Martin continue to underperform. They just don’t seem to be able to get the most from their package, make mistakes and generally struggle.

Hopefully we get plenty of running in tomorrow’s practice session and learn how the track is likely to behave and we can have some more bets on race day when the penalty situation will be clear.

-JamesPunt