2021 Turkish GP Raceday Preview and Tips

Now, it’s time for James Punt’s 2021 Turkish GP Raceday Update:

Today’s race should be fascinating. It is something of a step into the unknown. The track last year was newly laid and unfit for purpose due to a lack of grip. This year the track surface was treated seven days ago in order to improve the grip levels. The result is that there might be too much grip.

All the cars were being affected by tyre graining on Fridays long run and degradation was said to be high. That said, tracks evolve with every lap run, as tyre rubber goes down on the track surface. It is likely that track evolution today will be quite dramatic. The circuit is rarely used, and it was power washed a week ago. That means we had a totally ‘green’ track on Friday. Since then, we have had two one hour sessions on Friday, a wet session on Saturday which would have removed some of the rubber laid down on Friday, and a qualifying session. There are no F2 or F3 races this weekend so that is even less rubber going down than usual.

Highly Abrasive Track

Today we have a 58 lap race on a highly abrasive track and on a relatively soft range of Pirelli tyres. The quickest strategy here is a one stop race and there must be some serious doubts as to how many drivers will be able to make a one stop work. How many will be forced to make two stops or be so compromised by tyre management that they lose competitiveness. There should be a chance for those drivers skilled at tyre management and those outside the top 10 qualifiers with a free choice on which tyre they start the race on, to make gains against the field.

That would have been the case had it not rained this morning. The track is wet enough to require wet weather tyres for the opening laps. How many laps is anyone’s guess but tyre strategy is now more fluid, but tyre management is still going to be important.

2021 Turkish GP Raceday: Interesting Grid

Today’s grid has an interesting look about it. The leader of the world championship, Lewis Hamilton, has taken a penalty for installing a new internal combustion unit (but not a full power unit change), and he starts in eleventh place. He was comfortably the fastest driver in qualifying yesterday and was some 0.25 faster than Red Bull and Ferrari on Fridays long run pace. Red Bull may have closed some of that gap with set up changes on Saturday, but Hamilton has the fastest car.

However, starting eleventh means he will have to push, to be aggressive and run in dirty air for much of the time. That will make tyre management all the more difficult. Hamilton is also stymied by having cars in front who are not going to get out of his way. Tsunoda will be loving the wet track as it means he doesn’t have to start on the soft tyre, but Hamilton should get past him soon enough.

The two Aston Martins will not put up too much of a fight, more of them later, and Norris thinks Hamilton will have passed him in two laps. Hamilton will then be behind the likes of Sergio Perez in the second Red Bull, Alonso in the Alpine, Gasly in the Red Bull owned Alpha Tauri, Leclerc in a Ferrari all before he can join the fight for the race win.

Bottas Instructions

No doubt Bottas’ will have been given instructions to a) Keep Verstappen behind him, and b) let Hamilton past if the situation arises. The first should be possible as he has a faster car, but Bottas hasn’t exactly been impressive this season. He has had two pole positions and finished both races third. He says he is racing to win, running his own race, but that is only true up to a point.

Verstappen starts on the low grip side of the track, (although in the wet, will that still be the case?) and that hurts his chance of an early attack on Bottas. The first lap might be his only chance to pass the Mercedes but, like Hamilton, he can’t throw caution to the wind as he cannot afford to have an accident which could end his title hopes. Bottas, has no such worries. Taking Verstappen out would be job done as far a Mercedes is concerned.

Verstappen will start the race as the 2.38 favourite which seems very short. I don’t think Max Verstappen would make himself favourite and his job, his hope, is just to finish ahead of Hamilton. Bottas is the 3.50 second favourite which is tempting. His biggest threat is Hamilton, the 4.33 third favourite.

Bottas should just be able to drive off, get a decent lead on the first couple of laps, stay out of DRS range and mange the race from there. Only if Hamilton comes through the field and is in second place, will he be under threat of having to hand the race to Hamilton.

Max Makes No Appeal

Of the three favourites the one who makes virtually no appeal is Verstappen. Hamilton starts in the midfield and has a very hard job to make up enough places to get to the front. Overtaking here isn’t straight forward and following the car in front was challenging on the long runs on Friday. How many places Hamilton can make up on the opening lap is crucial to his chances. As many as possible, but without taking any undue risks. His start in Russia last time out was not good and it will be no surprise to see something similar, but at least he is on the good side of the track.

All things considered, Bottas looks the most likely to win and is favourite in my book.

We are seeing more teams coming into eh podium picture in recent races, indeed McLaren are unlucky not to have won the last two races. This weekend it is Ferrari and not McLaren who are the most likely to crash the party. Charles Leclerc has been no worse than fifth in any session so far and starts in third place, on the good side of the track.

Track Concerns Ferrari

There must be some concerns about how the Ferrari copes with the track causing gaining and how well they can manage the tyres. Sainz was leading in Russia but an early stop due to his tyres going off cost him any chance of a win. I would also question how competitive their long run pace is. It was 0.25 off Mercedes on Friday, but the general consensus is that Ferrari were running a higher power unit mode compared to Red Bull and Mercedes.

Carlos Sainz in the second Ferrari starts in last place. It will be very interesting to see how he gets on. He has been known to be able to run very long first stints and manage his tyres well. He was not able to do that in Russia so there is no guarantee that he will do it here. Ferrari are a very hard team to call when it comes to tyres. Sometimes they have no problems, others it can be bad.

Sainz had the advantage of selecting whichever tyre gives him the best strategy, but with a wet tyre start, that has been lost. He knew that he would be starting last, and the team will have set the car up purely around race pace. A points finish is very much on.

2021 Turkish GP Raceday: Alonso Eyes On Podium

We have backed Alonso to finish in the top 6 ante post and he starts fifth. He starts on the good side of the track, and he is mustard at race starts. He will have his eyes on a podium finish. Alonso is alongside Gasly in the Alpha Tauri who is on the low grip side and Alonso will be looking at making an aggressive start and so long as he stays in one piece, the podium is on the menu.

Daniel Ricciardo is the other car out of place on the grid. He now starts at the back after taking a new PU. The McLaren has been unusually off the pace all weekend. Ricciardo has not been better than twelfth in any session. Like the Netherlands, this just isn’t a track for McLaren. He will make up a few places, but there is no guarantee of any points for him, or indeed Norris.

Aston Martin have both drivers starting in the top 10. As a team, Aston Martin have a good understanding of how these tyres work. They can usually get a slightly better finishing position than in qualifying. They are likely to get passed by Hamilton, but Vettel should pass Tsunoda. From there is will be all about tyre management and trying to get both home in the points. Vettel goes well here and maybe they can get their third double points finish. Lance Stroll starts eighth and this is only the second time Aston Martin will have started with both cars in the top 10.

Russell Showing Pace

George Russell set some very good lap times on his long runs on Friday, and he is going for his third points finish in a row for Williams. Having Ricciardo and Sainz starting behind him might make that tricky without some attrition ahead of him.

The weather looks ok for the race, cloudy but dry with just a 7% chance of a shower. However, it has rained this morning and it looks certain that we will have a race start on a wet enough track. Peak temperature will be no more than 19 degrees so tyre warmup on the opening lap will be tricky. If there is no more rain, the switch to slicks will not take too long, but who blinks first is a big deal. That could really mix the order up before it settles down on a drier track.

It is hard to be confident about the likely attrition rate here. In the pre turbo hybrid era it was often quite high and averaged at 3.28. There were 3 DNF’s last year, but that was in horrible conditions and the cars are much more reliable these days than when this track was used before. The cold, damp weather is going to make the first corner VERY tricky, as we saw yesterday.

The weather at the start of the race makes the chance of accidents higher and the first lap will all be about getting the tyres warmed and not spinning out, but it should settle down into a more ‘normal’ race as the track gets a dry line. Once it does, the wet tyres will overheat quickly so decision making will need to be more positive than we saw with McLaren in Russia.

Raceday Selections

2021 Turkish GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Bottas to win the Turkish GP @ 3.50 with Unibet

2021 Turkish GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Carlos Sainz to finish in the points @ 1.67 with Betfred, Hills, Skybet

We have already backed Alonso for the top 6, but this wet start improves, or potentially improves, his chances to make up places at the start, and 11.0 for a podium finish is tempting. However, he looks a better bet at 10.0 to win Ladbrokes’ without the big 4’ market. That has Leclerc, Norris and Gasly at shorter odds and Alonso looks overpriced as the fourth favourite. Experience is a real asset in these changeable conditions. He is worth a modest bet, given the high-risk nature of the opening lap.

2021 Turkish GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Alonso to win the race without the big 4 @ 10.00 with Ladbrokes

A totally dry race would have been better for Aston Martin, but both are good in the wet and hopefully they can keep out of trouble and then manage the tyres well in the dry.

2021 Turkish GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Aston Martin to have a double points finish @ 3.25 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt