2022 Brazil GP Preview and Betting Tips

It was tough going for us in Mexico where James Punt had to make do with just one winner. He is hoping to bounce back in Sau Paulo this weekend, check out his in depth 2022 Brazil GP preview below.

2022 Brazil GP Preview

The 2022 Brazil GP, or the Sau Paulo GP, as it is now officially called, is another largely meaningless race with the big prizes already sorted. Perez is only 5 points clear of Leclerc in the battle for second place.

Red Bull are keen to get their first ever 1-2 in the Drivers’ World Championship and we have to be alert to the fact that they may still get behind Perez and gift him the win in one of the two remaining races. It didn’t happen in Mexico as Perez didn’t get himself into second place behind Verstappen. A bad pit stop cost him that opportunity and it will only happen if they are running 1-2 in the later part of a race.

Battle For Second

Mercedes are 40 points behind Ferrari for 2nd place. With only two races to go, that gap is probably too big to close, but this weekend is a Sprint Race weekend, so there are more points up for grabs than is usually the case.

Mercedes benefited from the thin air/high downforce in Mexico City, not enough to bother Verstappen, but enough to close the gap to Ferrari. They will not have the benefit of such thin air this weekend, but Sau Paulo is the third highest track on the calendar so it will give them some benefit, but only around 33% of what they got in Mexico.

Ferrari had to de-tune their power units in Mexico as their turbos would have overheated in the same way as Sainz’ did in Austria, which is the other track at altitude. They will be able to run them nearer full capacity this weekend, but perhaps not quite at 100%.

The pecking order at the top will be Red Bull as normal. Ferrari are likely to be more competitive but not fully, while Mercedes will fall back from where they were in Mexico.

Track Form

Drivers with good track records in the turbo hybrid era are Hamilton with three wins, and Max Verstappen with one win and three more podiums. Vettel is the only other past winner, but it was never a great track for Ferrari. Sainz got his first podium finish here in 2019. Norris has scored points in his two races here and Gasly finished second in 2019 after Hamilton’s clumsy driving cost Albon the podium and elevated Gasly and Sainz.

The driver starting on pole has a good record, winning five of the last seven races, the others were won from 2nd on the grid and 10th for Hamilton last year when he had a brand new power unit to thrash. The attrition rate is 2.29 and five of the seven have seen only 1 or 2 DNF’s.

Weather Watch

The weather often plays a part in racing at Interlagos and the forecasts for this weekend are conflicting. Some say hot and sunny on Friday and Sunday, with some light, patchy showers on Saturday. Others have heavy downpours on Friday afternoon, light showers on Saturday afternoon. Sunday will be cloudy with thunderstorms.

Very conflicting and all we can take away from this is that when it gets hot here at this time of year, you get thunderstorms and the rain can be torrential. However, the showers can be hit or miss so it may end up dry. The problem is that if we get a proper downpour the chances are that health and safety comes first and we get a safety car or red flag.

Quality Racing Track

The track is good one which produces decent racing. It is anti-clockwise, a relatively short lap, with the race lasting 71 laps. The track is a mix of fast sweeping curves, fast straights and a slow, twisty infield sector.

That slow middle sector is where the cars spend the bulk of the lap time, so you need the grip and downforce to thrive there, but the other two sectors require power and a good top speed. It requires a classic compromise set up to get the best lap time, but the best race set up is to be fast on the straights.

It sounds ideal for the Red Bull. Mercedes will be good in the middle sector, and they will not be as handicapped on the fast sectors as they would be at a lower altitude, but they will be less competitive than in Mexico. This has not been a great track for Ferrari in recent years and if they have to tune the power unit back once more, they are in danger of losing out to at least one Mercedes.

Similar To Austria

The circuit is not unlike the Red Bull Ring in Austria. Both are at a reasonable altitude; both are short laps with similar changes in elevation and both are fast and flowing. Charles Leclerc won that race, but it was a strange one. Verstappen was the fastest qualifier, won the sprint race and set the fastest lap of the race, but his Red Bull was just not able to manage its tyres that day and Leclerc won, despite a throttle problem.

His teammate retired when his turbo blew itself to bits and caused a fire. Perez also had to retire after being hit by Russell and the two Mercedes finished 3rd and 4th, thanks to the retirements of a Red Bull and Ferrari.

It is hard to read too much into the Austrian race as a form guide as it was months ago, and the relative form has changed. Red Bull are better, Ferrari weaker and Mercedes stronger.

Verstappen Hard To Oppose

It is hard to get away from the chances of win number 15 of the season for Verstappen. The Red Bulls’ top speed advantage will be rewarded here and they are on a run of nine straight race wins. Verstappen goes well on this track and any rain isn’t going to reduce his chances. He is the 1.57 favourite and there is still value there.

Lewis Hamilton is the 7.50 second favourite, just ahead of Leclerc at 8.00. That reflects recent form but may be overestimating the chances of Hamilton. The tracks in America and Mexico were good ones for Mercedes, this one not so much.

Ferrari are harder to call. Their power unit does seem to have problems at altitude and their record here is not great, but so long as they do not have to de-tune their power unit too much, they should be more competitive, certainly than in Mexico.

Perez’ Turn To Win?

The biggest threat to Verstappen winning might be the team wanting to get maximum points for Perez. He is a 13.00 chance for each way bets. Perez has had nine first or second place finishes from the 20 races to date. Interlagos has never been a particularly good track for him, two 4th places his best results, but he has the car to be competitive. His two wins have come on street tracks, but he has gone well on tracks with fast sweeping corners such as Spa, Silverstone and Suzuka so this looks like a track where he may go well.

The fact that this is a sprint race weekend should help Perez maximise his potential. His average qualifying position in 2022 is 4.52, compared to 3.83 for his average finishing position. Perez’ weakness has been in qualifying, he has too often started not just behind his teammate, but behind two other cars.

Qualifying Key

Given his race performances are generally better, this should allow him to get closer, if not on, the front row. He started third at Imola having been seventh in normal qualifying. In Austria his normal qualifying was a disaster, not all of his making, and he was just thirteenth. In the sprint race he made it up to fifth. If he can get his usual fourth or fifth, or better, in normal qualifying, he should be able to get closer to that front row.

The lower altitude and lower downforce set up may slow Mercedes down and Ferrari are still a bit limited by a de-tuned power unit, so Perez has a better chance of a better grid position and a chance to be running 1-2 with his teammate. If that was the case late in the race, he might just get a leg up from the pit wall. If not, his chances of finishing second are not bad and the place odds are reasonable.

2022 Brazil GP Tip: 1 point e/w Sergio Perez to win @ 13.00 with Hills, Skybet, Betfair, Betvictor

Who will be in the fight to be best of the rest this weekend? Alpine’s momentum has been derailed by power unit reliability. They did say at the start of the season that they were prepared to sacrifice reliability to gain long term performance. The power unit is definitely more competitive, and it can be modified for reliability over the winter.

However, now, late in the season, it is starting to suffer. Alonso has had the lion’s share of the failures and as usual, he is pointing fingers. There is always someone out to get him. Between the two drivers, they have had four DNFs in the last five races and just four points finishes. I quite fancy their chances this weekend, but they are a high risk option.

Lando Norris is usually the man to finish as best of the rest but will be priced accordingly. Aston Martin have made great progress since they went down the Red Bull design route, but they fell flat on their face in Mexico. That was likely to be a function of the altitude, but Stroll has a poor record here and Vettel should be heading their attack this weekend. This market can be revisited on race day.

Magnussen Interesting

In terms of a points scoring finish there is one driver who looks interesting at decent odds. Like Perez, Kevin Magnussen has been able to take advantage of the sprint race weekends, scoring points at both Imola and the Red Bull ring. He didn’t improve his position in the sprint race but they both coincided with those tracks hitting the Haas sweet spot.

Is that a coincidence, or are the tracks selected to host a sprint race weekend similar? There are tracks entirely unsuited to having a sprint race and the three chosen are ones the FIA think will ‘work’. Tracks where overtaking is possible being the main requirement.

The Haas car hates high downforce tracks but Interlagos is one where a lower downforce set up can work. The car will struggle in the middle sector, but will be stronger in the other two, and better able to overtake. Haas are likely to try a lower downforce set up to play to their strengths and it might just work. The odds are big enough to roll the dice. A drop of rain shouldn’t hurt his chances either.

2022 Brazil GP Tip: 1 point Kevin Magnussen to finish in the points @ 4.75 with Ladbrokes

Pierre Gasly has finished second and seventh here in his last two visits. This year’s Alpha Tauri is not their best car and they have struggled to pick up points on a regular basis in 2022. They have done so in four of the last seven races, along with two near misses in Mexico and the Netherlands where Gasly finished 11th. He is a 2.63 shot to make the points this weekend, but I’d like to see how he goes on Friday to see if the car is up to the job.

JamesPunt