2022 Cheltenham Day 4 Preview and Tips – DS

by Dave Stevos | Mar 17, 2022

2022 Cheltenham Day 4 Preview and Tips

Cheltenham dried out rapidly on Thursday and it was closer to good than soft by 3pm. That was no good for The Jam Man but Honest Vic ran a cracker to get 5th. Eldorado Allen paid the price for trying to win rather than place but he still only missed out on 2nd by 0.75L. Home By The Lee found the going a bit quick but Stolen Silver coped well and landed place money for us at 22s. We also landed a place with Mint Condition so it was a decent day in the end. Hopefully we get that elusive winner tomorrow. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2022 Cheltenham Day 4 preview and tips below.

1.30 – Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1)

Irish horses dominate the head of the market for this year’s triumph. Looking at the times of yesterday’s races the ground was closer to good than soft so none of these will have any excuses. Vauban is the market leader after his Grade 1 win at Leopardstown last time. He was beaten by Pied Piper on his hurdling debut but in that race a mistake at the last hurdle probably cost him victory. He jumped a lot better at Leopardstown and you’d have to fancy him to turn that form around.

Pied Piper does have the advantage of previous track experience. He won a Grade 2 hard on the steel here back in January but he beat a very limited bunch. Fil Dor is next in the betting for the same connections as Pied Piper. Davy Russell will be on him whereas Jack Kennedy is on the Piper. Russell has ridden both horses on every one of their starts so the fact he has chosen Fil Dor could be significant. When he was beaten by Vauban the Mullins horse wasn’t exactly pulling away at the line and I can see him getting closer on this far stiffer finish.

Home Hopes

The home challenge will be headed by Porticello and my e/w fancy, Knight Salute. The Moore horse is shorter in the betting and if it was bottomless ground, I’d agree with that position. However, in drying conditions I don’t see why he should be shorter as Knight Salute had his measure when they met at Doncaster (16.5f gd/sft). The Moore horse has won on very testing ground the last twice but will he be up to this level on a faster surface?

Knight Salute has been a credit to Milton Harris this season. Rated 80 on the flat, he has taken very well to hurdling and he has won all five starts. He won a G2 over the course and distance in November and while that isn’t top class form, at least a couple of winners came out of it. He beat Porticello fair and square at Doncaster and he won a Grade 1 subsequently. His final prep run at Kempton couldn’t have gone much better after a short break and at odds of 20/1, Knight Salute looks overpriced.

2022 Cheltenham Day 4 Tips: Knight Salute e/w @ 20/1 NAP (4 places)

2.10 – County Handicap Hurdle (Grade 1)

My original selection for this race, Bua Boy, sneaks in and trainer Denis Hogan rides. When the rain fell on Wednesday I had written this horse off but after watching today’s action, the ground should be absolutely fine for him. Hopefully Hogan can get him covered up in midfield early doors and if he does, I am hoping that he’ll travel into it and stay on well up the hill. He is 66/1 for 7 places with one firm and 40s for 8 places with most.

Our old pal Colonel Mustard runs in this for Lorna Fowler and Conor Orr. I backed him ante-post for the Supreme and I’m gutted he didn’t run. I think he would have placed in that race behind Constitution Hill so obviously, he has to have a serious chance here off a mark of 140. However, it is a massive field and an extremely competitive race and the son of Makfi lacks experiences in races of this nature. If he was a big price I’d probably back him e/w but at 7/1, no chance.

Faivoir Overpriced

Dan Skelton’s West Cork is another one near the head of the market that could go well. However, he has to prove he is up to defying the 7lb hike he got for winning here back in November. He did have an excuse at Ascot last time to be fair and it looks like this race has been the plan long term. However, he is only 9/1 and Skelton’s other runner, Faivoir, can be backed at 66s and I think that is a mad price.

This is a very consistent horse. He clearly takes his racing very well and he has only finished outside the first three in two of his eighteen starts. Bridget Andrews has been on board for five of his nine career wins and she is in the plate today. Faivoir was only 3.75L behind War Lord in a Novice Chase three starts back and he ran a cracker in 4th in the Arkle on Tuesday.

Lovely race

On his return to hurdling in February he ran a lovely race on soft ground behind Goshen and Adagio. He then had just his second handicap hurdle run at Kelso two weeks ago and he ran on well for 3rd off 143, finishing just 1.5L behind the winner. His form figures at Cheltenham over timber read 114 and he is a also a former Grade 2 winner.

He got 2lbs for that Kelso 2nd but that may not stop him from being competitive. Faivoir looks almost certain to run his race and you can’t say that about too many 66/1 shots. Whether he’s well handicapped enough to win, I’m not sure but with extra places on offer, he looks worth chancing each way.

2022 Cheltenham Day 4 Tips: Bua Boy e/w @ 50/1 already advised; Faivoir e/w @ 66/1 (7 places)

2.50 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)

Ginto is the favourite for the good old potato race but the form of Gordon Elliott has to be a huge worry. All the talk on Tuesday was about how amazing his string looked but that hasn’t been replicated on the track so far. The form figures for all his runners on Thursday do not make for pleasant reading: B00009FPP7P04. Ginto holds solid claims but you couldn’t be overly confident he’ll run to his best.

Hillcrest is the main Team GB hope for Daly and Patrick. This stout stayer has yet to taste defeat when he has completed. He was very impressive on heavy at Haydock last time and he has won at this venue too over 20f on soft. His two bumper wins came on good to soft so the drying ground isn’t that much of a worry and this horse is one of the more likely winners.

Shock

This race has a tendency to produce a shock result. No fav has won since 2013 and since then there has been winners at 33s, 14s, 11s, 16s, 33s, 50s and 14s. If there is to be one this year, maybe The Real Whacker can provide it. Ann Duffield trains this very lightly raced son of Mahler. He ran alright on his hurdling debut for Patrick Neville at Listowel.

He was then moved to Ann Duffield and he got off the mark in great style in a maiden hurdle at Carlisle (25f sft). Duffield’s charge hacked up and the horse that finished 18L back in 3rd, Gold Cup Bailly, got to within 4L of Ahoy Senor on his previous start.

Duffield stepped him into Grade 2 company on his next outing at Doncaster. He ran a cracker behind Mahler Mission, beat just 2L. He was looking around him like a big baby when Harry Skelton asked him to go past the winner and I’m not sure the flat, fast track placed enough emphasis on stamina. On this track, I’d definitely fancy him to turn that form around.

Sam Twiston Davies takes over in the plate and he is a solid booking. Maybe this horse might need a bit more experience but I think the raw ability is in there and if he puts it all together, he could outrun his odds of 100/1.

2022 Cheltenham Day 4 Tips: The Real Whacker e/w @ 100/1 (5 places)

3.30 – Cheltenham Gold Cup (Grade 1)

The big one. Just eleven runners will fight it out for racing’s most prestigious prize and to be honest, it looks a piss poor renewal. A Plus Tard and Galvin were side by side last time at Leopardstown and Galvin came out on top by a short head. His superior staying power got the job done that day and stamina is his strong suit. If the ground was more testing, I think he’d probably win but I am a big believer that you need more than just stamina to win a Gold Cup, a turn of foot is also required.

A Plus Tard is a faster horse than Galvin and that’s why I think he can reverse the form. As was mentioned earlier, Elliott’s horses are running well below par so that has to be taken into account. A couple of sticky late jumps probably cost De Bromhead’s horse the win behind stablemate Minella Indo last season and with a clearer round, he can reverse that form. Royal Pagaille was over 20L behind him when they met at Haydock so it is hard to see that gap closing and Henry De Bromhead’s charge is a worthy favourite.

Defending Champ

Minella Indo hasn’t looked the same horse since winning this a year ago. He has been beaten by Frodon and Conflated and he was pulled up in the King George. Has his monumental effort last season left a mark? It certainly looks that way and his supporters will be praying that the return to Cheltenham sparks him back to his best. Would I be backing him at 5/1? Not a hope.

Protektorat is a fascinating contender for the Skeltons. He is a horse with plenty of natural speed and he was a close second off top weight in the Paddy Power here in November. He was last sighted hosing up at Aintree on soft ground over 25f, a run that shows he has stamina too. Versatile tactically, he can be held up or race prominently and I think he is a huge danger to all. 9/1 is a very fair price.

Al Boum Photo bids to retain his crown. The former two time winner came up short in his hat trick bid and unfortunately, his chance to add a third Gold Cup may have passed him by. The addition of cheekpieces at this stage of his career smacks a bit of desperation and while he should run a solid race, it is hard to see him winning, as is the case with Asterion Forlonge.

Can Tornado Fly

Tornado did us a massive favour on Boxing Day by winning the King George at 33/1. He relished the flat track and going right handed suits him well. Unfortunately, I’m not sure this test will suit him. All his best Irish form is when he has gone right handed and while he ran okay in the Ryanair last year, he was still beaten a good dozen lengths. The percentage call is to oppose.

At the prices, I am going to take a chance on Chantry House. Nicky Henderson’s horses are in great form and this fella should come on bundles from his last run over C&D. He got tired in the Cotswold but he still beat Santini and Aye Right and I’d imagine that run was needed as he was pulled up on his previous start in the King George.

This son of Yeats hosed up in the 20f Novices’ Chase at the festival in 2021. That poor run at Kempton is the only blip on his record. Visually, you wouldn’t say his last run was nowhere near good enough to win this, but there should be improvement forthcoming. He is unbeaten at this venue when there has been good in the description (2/2) and he has placed and won at two festivals. Protektorat and A Plus Tard are the most obvious ones. However, at odds of 18/1, the each way value could lie with Chantry House.

2022 Cheltenham Day 4 Tips: Chantry House e/w @ 18/1 (4 places)

4.10 – Hunter Chase (Class 2)

I did manage to tip the winner of this a few years back but these days I have no interest in the Hunters’ Chase. I don’t watch enough of them throughout the season to have a strong opinion. Cousin Pascal should be staying on well at the finish and at odds of 14/1 he looks a possible each way bet. However, I’ll be sitting this race out. No Bet.

2022 Cheltenham Day 4 Tips: No Bet

4.50 – Mares’ Novice Hurdle (Grade 2)

Another one of the races I struggle to get excited about. Just eight are due to go to post and Elliott and Mullins dominate the head of the market. Mount Ida is the favourite but Elliot’s form is the worry with her. Elimay and Concertista head the Mullins challenge and for me Concertista is the one to be on given her excellent festival record.

At a massive price, maybe Pink Legend can outrun her odds for in form Venetia Williams. This mare needs good ground. She has won both starts on decent ground this season and run poorly on all three of her starts on soft. The daughter of Midnight Legend was a winner of a Listed Handicap over C&D back in April off 127 and she followed up at Ascot off 129. She won a Listed heat at Huntingdon in January and the soft ground can be blamed for her poor effort last time.

A rating of 137 means she’ll have to improve a chunk to trouble the best of these but she surely shouldn’t be more than 5x the price of Zambella and Vienna Court. Once the ground dries out sufficiently this mare can challenge for 4th and if one of the Irish horses flops, she might even sneak some place money at 66/1.

2022 Cheltenham Day 4 Tips: Pink Legend e/w @ 66/1

5.30 – Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle (Grade 1)

My original pick for this race was Freedom To Dream at 33s and I am pretty sweet on him. The ground looks fine, I am happy with the jockey booking and he has already been nibbled in betting into 25s. Hopefully, a huge run will be forthcoming. Another one that could go well at a massive price is Party Business for Ian Williams and Charlie Todd.

This 6yo son of Shantou is lightly raced over timber. He has won one of his four starts, an Ascot maiden hurdle (21.5f gd). The runner up won a novice next time out and the 3rd, 4L behind the winner, won a Grade 3 at Sandown last weekend off 126. The 4th has won since too so it looks very solid form.

Party Business looked like he was coming to win his race when falling two out at Newbury in the G1 Challow. He just dived at the hurdle and it was very unfortunate. He then struggled in a Warwick G2 but he picked up a knock during the race. This horse is totally unexposed and I think a strongly run race here is going to suit him. If he puts in a clear round, Party Business could sneak into the frame off 132. At odds of 40/1, he is worth backing each way.