2022 Coral Eclipse Stats That Matter Preview – DS

by | Jun 28, 2022

2022 Coral Eclipse Stats That Matter

Due to mildly popular demand, the stats are back! This weekend the big race is the Coral Eclipse and Dave Stevos is going to use trends and statistics to narrow the field. This year’s renewal looks extremely competitive with 11 top class horses still in contention to run. Hopefully, it turns out to be as good a race as it looks on paper, check out the 2022 Coral Eclipse Stats That Matter below.

Group Winning Form

Since the year 2000, the vast majority of winners of the Coral Eclipse had previously won either a Group 1 or Group 2. It is a race where class counts and a cursory glance back at past winners of the race shows the calibre of animal that is required. Roaring Lion, Sea The Stars, Medicean, Enable, Nathaniel and Refuse To Bend are just some of the names that are on the Coral Eclipse Trophy.

This stat allows us to count out a couple of contenders. Michael Stoute’s 4yo Bay Bridge is well fancied at 4/1 but his only stakes wins so far have come at Listed and Group 3 level. Epsom Derby 6th Stone Age is another one to be counted out. He is one of three Aidan O’Brien entries and only High Definition makes it past this stage. Aikhal won well at the weekend but he has only managed a win at G3 level.

Cut: Bay Bridge; Stone Age; Aikhal

Current Form

You need a horse that has shown solid form leading up to the race. Since 2000, 15 of the 22 winners (8 of the last 12) had at least one win that season before winning the Eclipse. Interestingly, three of the exceptions were Oratorio, Mount Nelson and Hawk Wing, all who were trained by Aidan O’Brien. His sole remaining representative, High Definition, has form figures of 2423 this year so the stats say that there’ll be no joy for Ballydoyle in this year’s race.

Dubai Honour has had just one unplaced run in Dubai so he gets the chop too. I actually think he has e/w claims but the stats rule the roost around here. John and Thady Gosden’s globetrotting superstar Mishriff is another one to miss out. He had a spin in the Saudi Cup last time out and trailed in last, beat 80 lengths. Not ideal preparation for a race of this calibre. Real World won in Meydan in January but the official flat season starts in April so again, the stats are saying he is up against it.

Cut: High Definition; Dubai Honour; Mishriff; Real World

2022 Coral Eclipse Stats That Matter – The Verdict

And then there were four. French raider Vadeni is the favourite and he has made the final cut. A Group 1 winner last time, Jean Claude Rouget’s son of Churchill looks a hugely promising 3yo. He gets weight from the older horses and he has the assistance of the brilliant Christophe Soumillon in the saddle.

Native Trail is 4/1 and that looks fairly generous. Okay, he lost his unbeaten record in the Guineas but there was no shame in going down by 0.5L to Coroebus. He bounced back with a near 2L win in the Irish Guineas and if he stays, he’ll be a huge danger to all.

Classy Operator

Alenquer is another classy operator. The 4yo has won 2/3 this term, a G3 at Lingfield and a Curragh G1, both at 10f. His sole defeat came when he tried 12f at Meydan. He beat Mishriff by 6L at York last season and he had 2.5L to spare over Lord North in that Lingfield G3. Last time at the Curragh he had a neck to spare from High Definition and 1.75L from Lord North. It is rock solid form.

Last, but not least, we have the aforementioned Lord North. James Doyle gets the leg up on the 6yo son of Dubawi and he looks an absolutely massive price at 28s. He has very little to find with Alenquer and I’m not sure why he is such a big price. Three runs back he dead heated in a Meydan G1 with Saffron Beach 3.5L back in 4th. Yes, he finished last at Royal Ascot but that was because of Frankie’s blindfold mishap in the stalls.

From a betting perspective, Alenquer and Lord North make most appeal. If it rains as is forecast then Alenquer is favoured but on quick ground, Lord North could have the edge. Of the other two, Vadeni is proven at this trip so he is narrowly preferred to Native Trail.

2022 Coral Eclipse Prediction
  1. Alenquer 8/1
  2. Lord North 28/1 (back e/w)
  3. Vadeni 9/4
  4. Native Trail 4/1

-DaveStevos

 

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