2022 Italian GP Preview and Tips

Last week James Punt nailed the winner of the Dutch GP, advising 2 points on Max Verstappen. Now, the focus switches to one of F1’s most famous tracks, Monza in Italy. Can Ferrari give the Tifosi something to cheer about? Find out in James’ 2022 Italian GP preview below.

2022 Italian GP Raceday Preview

The Monza circuit is a real outlier on the calendar. It is the third oldest purpose built racetrack in the world and the original was a basic speed test with the famous ultra-steep banked corners. That ethos has remained, and it remains a track dedicated to speed, power and straight line performance.

When the regulations ushered in the turbo-hybrid era in 2014 it started a run for Mercedes victories, five in a row from 2014 to 2018 inclusive. Their run was broken by Ferrari with that special 2019 power unit which was banned for 2020 for reasons never disclosed (they were cheating).

Surprise Results

The last two Italian GPs have produced surprising results. Pierre Gasly won for Alpha Tauri in 2020 and McLaren scored a 1-2 in 2022. Gasly’s win was the result of a bizarre and unpredictable run of events which turned the race on its head. Leclerc had a huge crash which caused some drivers to jump in the pits for a free pit stop under yellow flags, but another car had stopped in the pit lane entrance.

This caused the stewards to close the pitlane, but Lewis Hamilton and a couple of others, failed to notice that the pits were closed. They received penalties which dropped them out of the lead and down into the pack. Gasly was left holding the parcel and held of a charging Sainz to win the race having started 10th.

The McLaren 1-2 was partly facilitated by Verstappen and Hamilton having a coming together which took both out of the race, but the McLarens had qualified 3rd and 4th in both qualifying and the qualifying sprint race (there will be no sprint race this year). They had a car that was fast on the straights and Monza was always going to be a good circuit for them. Bottas had to take a grid penalty which ruined his chances and with Hamilton and Verstappen out, the McLaren’s were left to take a 1-2.

Red Bull Bossing It

Which brings us nicely to the 2022 Italian GP. We have one car, the car that leads both championships, which has been the best performer on the straights this season. Red Bull.

The other track which rewards power and straight-line performance is Spa and we saw what Red Bull could do there. Pole, fastest lap and a 1-2 finish, despite Verstappen starting from 14th. This may be Ferrari’s home race, but they are expecting to be on the end of a drubbing this weekend, and they are right. Ferrari will be hoping for a podium, probably a 3rd place as was the case in Belgium.

This will be a much shorter preview than usual as there is very little to say, other than this is a race that will be decided by straight-line speed and the most powerful power units.

Closer On Power

The teams are much closer on power these days. Back in 2014 – 2018, it was all about Mercedes’ power. It meant that Mercedes and their customer teams dominated. Ferrari briefly bucked the trend but now we have Honda Red Bull power trains as the most powerful, not by the same margin, but it is coupled with a car that is very slippy through the air.

Other drivers that have gone well at the power sensitive tracks (such as Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Austria and Spa), are, not surprisingly, Sainz, Leclerc, Russell and Alonso. Verstappen has won three of the four races at the tracks mentioned, Sainz one (when Verstappen’s car was damaged). Vettel has scored point on two of the four and he never raced in Saudi, Gasly scored at three of the four.

Verstappen Hot Fav

Verstappen is the 1.44 favourite for the 2022 Italian GP, shorter than for last weekend’s race, and rightly so. It would seem only a racing or mechanical misfortune can stop him. Is it any great value? I would say that he should be a shorter price, perhaps more like 1.30, however Verstappen is not a great value bet this weekend, but he will very likely win.

Perhaps a better way to try and profit from his likely win is to look at the winning margin. In the days of Mercedes domination here, and Verstappen has established a similar level of dominance in 2022, the gap between them and the next best team was over 20 seconds from 2014 to 2017. I would expect something similar this weekend.

Of course, Perez in the other Red Bull should be closer to Verstappen than the Ferraris or Mercedes, but in the four races where Red Bull have had a 1-2 finish, the gap between Max and Checco has been at least 13 seconds.

Perez Likely 2nd Best

I suspect that Perez will be, or should be, Verstappen’s closet rival this weekend, but his record against Verstappen is not good. It transpires that Perez was given a new design of floor at Spa and that it didn’t perform as well as expected. He will continue to use it for cost reasons, while Verstappen will keep on running with the usual design.

It is also very possible that Perez will take his engine penalty this weekend. With The Red Bull likely to be fast here, he should be able to make up a lot of places in the race, but there is no news as yet. If he does, it improves the chances of a wide margin victory for Max.

Half of Verstappen’s ten race wins this season have seen a winning margin of over 10 seconds. His winning margins on the power tracks have seen half being over 10 seconds, and it seems reasonable to think that his chances of winning by over 10 seconds is around evens.

2022 Italian GP Tip: 1 point Winning margin over 10 seconds @ 2.63 with Skybet, Betvictor

It all looks good for Verstappen. No penalties for him but maybe for his teammate and maybe for Sainz. The Mercedes powered cars are due to take penalties at some point and the next two tracks make little sense to take them there.

With this being Ferrari’s home race, the pressure to win, or at least put up a good performance is even greater than usual. The Dutch GP saw more ineptitude at Ferrari when Sainz pitted, and the crew only had three tyres ready for his car. That was his race run, but team boss Mattia Binotto is standing by his team, saying no changes will be made. We shall see.

New Power Unit?

It’s rumoured that Ferrari will give Sainz a new, lighter power unit for this weekend. This has not yet been confirmed, just that a new one will have to be taken at some point. They need to do something as they continue to lose ground to both Red Bull and Mercedes.

In the last eight grand prix, they have scored 58 points fewer points than Mercedes, and the gap between the two is now just 30 points. They have won just one race in the same period, despite getting four pole positions, and the latest anti-porpoising regulations may have slowed them further still. On recent form, they are the third best car, having started the season so well. They are not in a good state going into their home race.

Mercedes Troubles

Mercedes has their own troubles. Their star driver is no longer singing from the same hymn sheet. Hamilton does not want to continue with this car’s design going into 2023. Mercedes seems to be committed to it and I would be surprised if they change their minds at this relatively late stage. He was also openly critical of the team’s strategy at Zandvoort.

Hamilton lost a podium finish to his teammate late in the race, but it was a result of Russell being proactive and demanding he be put on the soft tyres under the safety car, while Hamilton was committed to finishing the race on mediums. His problems were compounded by him selecting the wrong engine mode at the re-start, meaning Verstappen was able to drive by him on the straight.

Track Suitability Questions

They now have the second fastest car, in the races at least, but it remains a very difficult car to get the best out of. The Zandvoort circuit allowed them to run the car low to the ground to maximise downforce, but will they be able to do the same thing here? Perhaps not.

This a very different track. They have been at their best on slower, high downforce tracks and this is very fast and low downforce. The team do not expect to be as competitive as at Zandvoort, but hope not to struggle like they did in Spa.

Leclerc has only scored two podiums in the last ten races, but his luck may change this weekend. He won’t need an engine penalty having taken one at Spa, very much with this race in mind. He is very likely to be starting at or very near the front, with the possibility of one or more of the top 6 taking penalties.

Podium Hopes Leclerc

The Mercedes is likely to be less competitive here and if it all goes to plan, and it rarely does at Ferrari, Leclerc should be eying up a podium. He is a best priced 1.67 to do so and if it was any team other than Ferrari, that would be worth taking. But, with Ferrari, you need to allow for the extra risk of self-inflicted wounds.

The Alpine – McLaren battle for fourth place continues to go Alpine’s way. They now lead by 24 points as Ricciardo continues to flounder in the McLaren while Alpine have now had seven double points finishes across the last eight races. It was only a year ago since they scored a 1-2 here.

Alpine On Top

They would be delighted just to get both cars home in the points this weekend, and even then, Alpine will likely outscore them. Fernando Alonso finished 8th here last year, his only points finish in the turbo-hybrid era. In the last six races, Alonso has finished in the top 6 three times, Ocon once.

The Alpine has the pace to get a top 6, especially if any of the big three suffer a retirement. The worry about Alonso is the situation re his power units. He is one who may take one this weekend, but Ocon will be OK.

Not having a power unit penalty this weekend after taking the hit at Spa looks like giving Ocon a headstart on what is expected to be quite a few drivers who take their penalty here. Alonso is a bit of an unknown in that department, but Ocon we know is OK. It has become a James Punt tradition to back Ocon for a top 6 finish and this week is no exception.

2022 Italian GP Tip: 1 point Esteban Ocon to finish in the top 6 @ 4.00 with Skybet

Alfa Romeo’s points drought now extends to six consecutive races, and it is hard to see any reason why that should end. Bottas has enjoyed a good record here, scoring points every year in the turbo-hybrid era.

He had the advantage of Mercedes power then, but now he has a rather poor car, which is unreliable and no longer very quick. Bottas is even losing out to Zhou. He faces another engine penalty this weekend after blowing another unit last weekend.

Haas have not scored in the last four races, and they are poor in low downforce tracks. Alpha Tauri might be worth supporting this weekend, or at least Gasly might be. He won here, fortuitously, in 2020 and their car has looked better in the last couple of races.

They are stronger in high-speed races and Gasly might be able to get back in amongst the points again after he did so from the back of the grid in Spa. He took a new power unit in Hungary, so he should be penalty free this weekend.

2022 Italian GP Tip: 1 point Pierre Gasly to finish in the points @ 2.75 with Skybet

Aston Martin continue their quest to catch Alpha Tauri at a glacial pace. They have scored points in eight of the last nine races, but only scored 20 points in that time. Part of the problem is that they have only had one race with a double points finish, and their usual finishing position is 10th.

Lance Stroll has had five point scoring finishes this season, all of them 10th places. Sebastian Vettel has scored the lion’s share of the team’s points (20). Both drivers have had good results at this venue, Stroll scoring in four of his five races and ironically, the only time he didn’t was when he was badly impeded by….Sebastian Vettel.

Aston In The Hunt

The Aston Martins should be in the hunt for more points this weekend, but it is qualifying that remains their big problem. Occasionally one of them gets it right but so far, they have yet to get both cars into Q3. Surely at some stage it will click for both drivers and a second double points finish can’t be far away.

9th and 11th at Silverstone, 10th and 11th in France and Hungary, 8th and 11th in Belgium. They are knocking on the double points finish door and on a track they both go well on, might it be this weekend? It might, but it might be a weekend for them to take engine penalties. The next two circuits are not good for making up places from the back of the grid and this is a better venue to take the pain. I will hold fire on the Aston’s for now.

Straight Line Speed

Williams scored a point at Spa, largely thanks to their straight-line speed. Albon was able to keep faster cars behind him as they could not pass him on the straight and he managed his race very well. This track should allow that quality to be a virtue this weekend. Williams know how to get the most from their cars at this track and say that they can go lower on downforce, but they will make that decision after they asses the conditions.

It is difficult to have too many ante post bets as Monza is one of the tracks where traditionally, we see quite a few drivers taking penalties for taking new power units. There was a slew of them in Spa with Verstappen, Leclerc, Ocon, Norris, Zhou, Tsunoda and Bottas.

Another Bottas Penalty

Bottas has been forced to take yet another new power unit after he blew another in last weekend’s race. The others should all be penalty free this weekend as should Gasly. Sainz and Magnussen took penalties in France, but Ferrari are keen to get the new lightweight unit into Sainz car sooner rather than later. The rest or at least some of them, may yet still opt to take new PU’s and associated penalties.

The Mercedes powered cars are due penalties and as I type, Mercedes have announced that Hamilton will take a new PU and will start at the back of the grid. This is required due to the damage to his power unit in Belgium when he collided with Alonso and had to retire.

The weather forecast is suggesting some rain for FP1 but also warm sunshine so it shouldn’t amount to much. The rest of the weekend looks glorious with lots of warm sunshine.

Only the three ante post bets due to the possibility of more power unit penalties to come this weekend. It is prudent to wait for certainty regarding who is going to be affected. We will have previews for qualifying and the race and more bets to come.

JamesPunt