2022 Italian GP Raceday Update and Tips

Our F1 analyst James Punt’s in depth, pre-race preview is available to read here. Now, it is time for his 2022 Italian GP Raceday Update. Check it out below.

2022 Italian GP Raceday Preview

The slide rules have been put away, the super computers turned off and the final provisional grid has been worked out. The final grid will not be published until 1 hour before the race, but unless someone has made a monumental cock up, there will be no further changes.

The vast numbers of drivers taking penalties and the differing types of penalties did take some working out and there were a few re-takes before the final draft. The headline acts start like this.

ferrari on Pole

Charles Leclerc starts from pole position. A very important position for this race as the pole sitter has a very good record of winning the race, although in the turbo-hybrid era it has been four from eight. George Russell starts in second place in front of an all McLaren second row, almost a repeat of their lining up 2nd and 3rd last year when they went on to finish 1-2.

Pierre Gasly starts 5th and at least one of our ante post selections is a lottery winner. Alonso is alongside him. Max Verstappen lines up in 7th place with late replacement for Alex Albon, Nyck de Vries, in 8th for Williams. Sergio Perez is 13th, Ocon 14th, Carlos Sainz 18th and Hamilton 19th.

It is a very mixed up grid which will make for a more interesting race blah, blah, blah. But it means that some very slow cars are starting in or around the points paying places. We have to try and work out where the pace is and what are the chances of the truly fast cars to make it up the order.

Leclerc No Banker

Leclerc is the easy one. He was the fastest car in qualifying and starts on pole. He has the fastest car over one lap, fact. Will he have the fastest race car? Probably not. Historically this season Leclerc has had seven previous pole positions but failed to convert five of them, the last five, into race wins. That was down to unreliability, driver errors and the fact that the Red Bull has steadily improved and is now the faster race car. Ferrari went all out for pole position on home soil and got it.

Russell in second place is out of position, but the Mercedes has been a better race car than qualifier and he will be sniffing at least another podium. His problem is that the car has not looked at home on the circuit. Mercedes qualified 5th and 6th and Russell was 1.381 slower than Leclerc.

Even if the Merc is better in the race, it is unlikely to be able to close that pace difference. Russell says he has not been able to find the car’s sweet spot since FP1 and they have gone backwards since then. He is confident that they will have the race pace to fight with Leclerc, but probably not Verstappen.

McLaren Off The Pace

McLaren were expecting a difficult weekend on this track. Now, here they are hogging the second row, but in reality, they are around 1.5 seconds off the pace. Norris says that finishing 7th is the best he can do. Gasly is 2.5 seconds slower than Leclerc but the Alpha Tauri is very quick on the straights. Alonso didn’t set a time in Q3 which saved tyres but his pace will be around that of Norris in the McLaren.

Verstappen starts 7th but he was just 0.145 slower than Leclerc and Red Bull are playing a different game. They were slow on the straights, despite that being the car’s major strength. They have decided that running with more downforce than anyone else is going to pay dividends over the race distance. The time traces showed the Ferrari quicker on the straights, but the Red Bull faster in the corners and quicker out of them. This seems a bit strange as they have won races from behind by being faster in the places where you can overtake, i.e. the straights.

Their strategists have decided that their best race will be done with more drag and better tyre management. The question is, have they got it right? We shall see, but you have to ask yourself, you do you trust to get it right. Ferrari, or Red Bull?

Better Race Pace

Looking at the long runs in practice, it still looks like the Red Bull has better race pace and indeed even their one lap pace is very close to Ferrari. Verstappen did his final Q3 run without the aid of any tow, which is said to be worth some 0.2 – 0.3 here in these new ground effect cars. It seems that Red Bull are banking on tyre deg being the defining factor today.

The race is ideally a 1 stopper and if that is the case then their strategy pays off. But what if we get a safety car and the chance of a cheap stop for everyone? That could get Ferrari out of that hole. And there have been a ton of them in the support races.

Battle Of Wits

It is not a straightforward call. It is a battle of wits as much as pure pace. When it comes to wits, you have to back Red Bull every time. Ferrari are their own worst enemy, both in the cockpit and on the pit wall. However, I feel like Red Bulls strategy is counter intuitive. They are not playing to their strengths and maybe being a bit too clever? But Max has been awesome in coming from further back in the last two races. Surely starting 7th will not be enough to stop him.

Verstappen is the 1.83 favourite and Leclerc 2.50. Russell is 15.00 and you can name your price anyone else. It might be worth looking at anyone else given the results in the last two years here. If Verstappen and Leclerc had a coming together, then it is game on.

But, they are not going to be racing head to head at the dangerous time of the race, the start. Verstappen has the tougher start, in amongst the traffic and the first lap her is famous for seeing casualties., although less so in recent years. Maybe the drivers have realised it just isn’t worth risking it all in the first two chicanes.

Max to Deliver

I will support the chances of Verstappen. He seemed very unconcerned after qualifying. That could of course just be because he is in such a strong position in the championship that he is not worried about not winning. He isn’t going to be far away and Leclerc can only put a small dent in Verstappen’s lead.

The team have also been very calm and seem confident that they have the best plan. They have pulled of an alternative strategy here before to take a win and they do have the best car/driver combination. Leclerc earned his pole by wringing the neck of his car, and he won’t be able to do that over a race distance without killing his tyres.

2022 Italian GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Max Verstappen to win @ 1.83 with Betfred

The battle for what should be third place is interesting. Russell is 1.73 to finish on the podium and he has done so six times already this season. He converted his previous best two starting positions into podiums, and he is the most likely to do so again.

A more sporting bet might be Alonso. He starts sixth but he will give it everything on the first lap and either cock it up or make progress. He is going to have beat Russell, or take advantage of a strange race, which you can get here, with safety cars throwing up threats and opportunities. The wise old fox loves those kind of races but I suspect the Alpine just doesn’t have the race pace of the Mercedes. A top 6 finish should be within his grasp.

Top 6 Alonso

He has done it in four of the last six races. He will lose a place to Verstappen, but he has the pace to get past Gasly, Ricciardo and probably Norris. The faster cars of Perez, Sainz and Hamilton will have plenty of work to do to make it up to where Alonso will be, and I would think he should be a touch of odds on. Norris is 1.67 to finish top 6, despite his gloomy predictions for his chances, and he has only had one top 6 in the last six races, compared to Alonso’s four.

2022 Italian GP Raceday Tip: 2 points Fernando Alonso to finish in the top 6 @ 2.62 with Hills

We have already backed Gasly for a points finish at 2.75 and he is in with a decent shout starting 5th. Normally I would be looking at the two Aston Martins to be points finishers and from further back, but they have been right off the pace this weekend. Ocon should be aiming for more points, but he is odds on to do so.

For the final bet, I’ll go for Williams late stand in, Nyck de Vries to win Ladbrokes group 3. He is grouped with Lance Stroll and the two Alfa Romeo’s. He qualified 13th and should have made Q3 but for pressing the button on the steering wheel. That is not a surprise given that he was driving the Aston Martin in FP1 and getting used to two new wheel lay outs just 24 hours apart can’t be easy. He will have had more time to learn the lay out since then.

Alfa Problems

Alfa Romeo have not scored a point in the last six races, and they are having problems just getting to the finish never mind scoring points. Normally Stroll would deserve to be favourite for the group but the Aston has looked very slow this weekend. They are usually better in the race, but I am not so sure for today. In any case, the slippy Williams is the better car on tracks like this.

De Vries starts ahead of the other three and in the better car. It is only his lack of F1 experience which makes him the second favourite. It is a disadvantage but if he can get away safely, he should do a decent job. He has done a lot of F1 testing and is a very accomplished driver. He might not score any points, but he has already made sure Latifi is on his way out for next year, and for that, we can be grateful.

2022 Italian GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Nyck de Vries to win group 3 @ 3.25 with Ladbrokes

JamesPunt