2022 World Grand Prix Darts Preview and Tips – JP
2022 World Grand Prix Darts Preview and Tips
The 2022 World Grand Prix is one of the more unusual majors on the calendar as it features a double in and double out format. This is something which can mix things up a little and makes the first round especially tricky as it is best of three sets. So, a short format and if you have a few problems getting started, the match can get away from you very quickly.
Arguably, there is a bit too much made of double starts. Come the end of the tournament it is unlikely that we will see one of the outsiders lifting the trophy just because they were able to get their first dart in the double. The name of the game will still be about who plays the best darts. You still only have three goes per visit and who ever scores the most points as quickly as possible wins, so long as they can hit the final double well.
Not Many Surprises
Obviously, you want to avoid players who traditionally have a weakness on the outer ring, but with 32 of the best players in the world, they are all accomplished players. The fact is that the list of past winners doesn’t feature many surprises.
We have seen some good runs from players you may not usually see in the later stages, but in the last ten years, only Robert Thornton could be called a surprise, and he was a much better player back then. Daryl Gurney was a 34.00 shot when he won in 2017, but he was playing really well that year and it wasn’t a great surprise to see him win, just that the bookies underestimated him.
Form and Confidence Key
The usual selection criteria apply. Look for players who are in good form, confident and preferably have tournament winning form under their belts in 2022 already. If they have been hot on the doubles, so much the better.
The field is made up of the top 16 players from the PDC O.O.M, the top eight players of whom are seeded, the rest allocated in the draw. The other 16 players are to top 16 players on the pro tour O.O.M who had not already qualified. If anything, you are more likely to find the out of form players in the top 16 of the O.O.M. as that is a 2 year rolling ranking, while the pro tour reflects who is playing well in 2022.
Players event form (latest on the right) and tournament odds
1. Gerwyn Price – 1/1/2/QF/1/W/RU – 6.00
After a relatively quiet start to the year, with injury and an underwhelming Premier League campaign, Price returned to winning ways at the World Series Finals, beating Dirk van Duijvenbode 11-10 in the final. Apart from that he won the opening euro tour event of the season, one players championship event and one of the World series tournaments.
He was runner up in the World Matchplay in July and he remains one of the top players, if no longer the top player. He is ranked 5th for checkout % over the last 12 month and is a prodigious double 20 hitter. Very much a contender and tournament favourite.
2. Peter Wright – 1/1/2/1/1/QF/RU/2/1/1 – 9.00
Like Price, Peter Wright has had injury problems in 2022, but he is now restored to full health. He won the World Championship at the very start of the year, won PC2 the following month but that was it title wise until he picked up a euro tour title three weeks ago.
His most recent form, from the start of September, has been very good in terms of scoring and despite going out early at the World Series finals and the most recent euro tour event, he is one of the form players coming into this week. It has to be said however, that his tournament record is poor for a player of his standing.
3. Michael van Gerwen – 1/W/QF/W/RU/W/1/W/W/QF/1 – 8.50
MVG has excellent event form, winning it five times and it was the first major title he won, back in 2012. He has had a much better 2022 than 2021, winning the Premier League and the World Matchplay, three euro tour events and two players championships. He will still not be happy with that and while he remains a major contender in anything he enters, he isn’t the dominant force of a few years ago.
Last year, he was in worse form. He went out in round one due to him struggling to get the opening double on his first visit, never mind his first dart. He does struggle with the big points at times these days and his form in the last month is not good. His odds of 8.5 are a bit of an outlier as most bookies have him as joint favourite with Price, but he still looks a lay to me.
4. Michael Smith – 1/1/2/1/1/1/2/1/1 – 15.00
One look at Smith’s event form is enough to start the alarm bells ringing. He has only won two matches, never reached the third round and lost seven first round matches. He isn’t regarded as a player you would want to throw a double if your life depended on it and that seems to be borne out by his record.
Bully Boy has had a good season winning in the World Series, the players championship and euro tour, but if you had to nominate one major that he was least likely to win, this would be it.
5. James Wade – 1/QF/W/1/1/W/SF/1/SF/RU/1/1/1/1/2/1/2 – 41.00
With the reputation as being the game’s best doubler, it is no surprise to see that Wade is a two time tournament winner. What is a surprise is that he has not progressed beyond the second round for the last seven years.
His 12 month 3 dart average is 93.5, that’s 31st, so the rest of his game isn’t as good as many others. His doubling prowess keeps him right up there in the rankings but he lacks the power scoring of many others and that makes winning titles difficult.
6. Jose de Sousa – 1/2 – 51.00
There isn’t much in the way of tournament form here, but his recent form is a bit more encouraging for The Special One. He is winning a few more matches, putting in some strong performances, but the inconsistency is still there. He looks more of a dangerous opponent than a potential winner right now.
7. Jonny Clayton – 1/1/2/W – 15.00
2021 was the Year of The Ferret, 2022 not so much. He is the defending champion but his form in 2022 sees just a single world series title to his name. He is still one of the heavy scores, still wins plenty of matches but there have been too many stray darts of late.
What he has been doing well in the last month, is hitting doubles. Only once in September did his checkout rate fall below 40% and despite his lack of titles in 2022, The Ferret must be on the short list.
8. Rob Cross – 1/1/2/1/2 – 41.00
It has been a frustrating season for Rob Cross. He has played better in 2022 but not converted that play into as many titles as he should have. Three times a runner up on the euro tour and just one players championship title is less than his ability should be getting him. He is another player whose tournament record means he doesn’t make the shortlist.
2022 World Grand Prix: The Rest
Gary Anderson – 2/QF/1/1/QF/SF/2/RU/QF/2/QF/1 – 51.00
Anderson has only played six matches in the last two months. There are light schedules and there is semi-retirement, take your pick. No doubt he is saving himself for another big push at Ally Pally, but he does seem to have all but given up playing competitive darts. His Win rate in 2022 is just 45% and natural talent will only get you so far at this level. A first round draw against MVG doesn’t make things any easier.
Danny Noppert – 1/2/2/SF – 23.00
The improvement in Noppert’s form in 2022 is reflected in his price. The UK Open champion, a players championship winner and a two time euro tour runner up in 2002, Noppert is now a contender in all the big events. He reminds me of Daryl Gurney in 2017, having a lot of good runs, building his confidence and having the belief that he can win the big ones.
Noppert maybe still gets a bit tight at the business end of tournaments but there is no doubting his ability. He reached the semi-final last year and he has improved since then. He is 42% for checkout % over the last 12 months, ranked 9th in that metric.
Luke Humphries – 2 – 15.00
Humphries took the euro tour by storm in 2022, winning four titles and adding one players championship event. His major form isn’t quite as good Noppert’s though, for example. He has reached three world championship quarter finals and was runner up in the UK Open last year, but he is not yet a regular feature in quarters, semis and finals.
Is this the year he breaks through at the very top level? With his euro tour being so good, you have to think so. He is currently waiting for his partner to give birth to his first child and if that happens pre-event, we may see the nappy factor in effect, but if he is ‘on-call’, it could be a distraction.
Joe Cullen – 1/1/2/1/QF/1 – 26.00
The Rockstar picked up his first TV title at The Masters at the start of the season, qualified for the Premier League and came within a whisker of winning it. He has had a recent euro tour win and is a much more confident player these days. His record in the ranked majors isn’t great and it remains to be seen if he is going to remedy that in the coming months.
Dirk van Duijvenbode – RU/1 – 34.00
Made the final of this on debut in 2020. That was a behind closed doors event, but he has made four ranked major quarter finals since and is heading in the right direction. His scoring power puts him in with a chance in any event and I feel his time will come soon in a major.
The Aubergenius has improved his game year on year and is still getting better. Dirk came very close to winning his first TV title at the recent World Series finals and he is another contender for this title. He has improved his doubles recently and since 1st July was ranked second for double tops.
Dimitri van den Bergh – 1/2/1 – 23.00
A disappointing tournament record for Dimitri. All his good major form comes at the World Matchplay. So far in 2022, his two titles both came in the World Series events but outside of that he has just a euro tour runner up spot. His recent form is reasonable but there is little to suggest he is one to follow this week.
Nathan Aspinall – QF/1/1 – 51.00
Has gone out at the first stage in the last two years. He is winning a lot of matches in 2002 and doing particularly well in the floor events. He is over his early season injury woes and is ranked 7th for checkout % since the start of the season. Since winning the UK open in 2019 his best results in a major are a world championship semi and another semi in last year’s European Championship.
Dave Chisnall – 1/2/RU/1/2/SF/2/QF/SF/QF – 26.00
Chizzy got his first title in three years at the Belgian Darts Open just over a week ago, so he comes here in good form and confident. Will that win be enough to push him into contention in that elusive TV major?
This was the one that many pundits have said for years, was the one that he is most likely to win. He is a two time runner up, has reached two more semi-finals and has reached at least the quarter finals in the last four years.
Pro Tour Qualifiers
Damon Heta – 1- 41.00
Heta has very good stats for the outer ring in 2022 and could be something of a dark horse. He is ranked first for checkout % at 44.7%. He got off with his first visit every time on debut last year but still lost his opening match. The major concern about Heta is that he has won just two of his last eight matches, despite scoring well, but half saw a checkout % of less than 30%, so his recent form is a negative.
Ryan Searle – 1/QF – 51.00
Heavy Metal’s run of poor form continues with just one win in his last seven but at least he played well in defeat to Jose de Sousa in the Belgian Darts Open. One match is not a lot to pin his hopes to, however.
Krzysztof Ratajski – 1/1/QF – 67.00
Another for whom 2022 has been less than memorable. He made the quarter final of his last euro tour event but did so playing very modest darts. He has lost five of his last ten matches and despite reaching a players championship final at the end of August, he hasn’t kicked on from there.
Martin Schindler – Debut – 201.00
His odds are a bit dismissive for a player who is having a decent season, but he has yet to pick up a senior title and to make this his first would be asking a lot. He remains a dangerous opponent as he is having plenty of good runs if not quite going all the way.
Chris Dobey – SF/1 – 126.00
Made the semi-final in 2019 but he remains the most frustrating darts player in the world. Next.
Daryl Gurney – 1/1/QF/W/SF/1/1/1 – 101.00
The 2017 Champion, a quarter finalist in 2016 and semi-finalist in 2018, Superchin knows how to play this format. However, three consecutive first round defeats since doesn’t inspire any confidence. Only three averages over 90 from his last ten matches and just four wins means that another good run looks unlikely.
Madars Razma – Debut – 501.00
The bookies’ rank outsider, but he is better than that. He improves year by year and while he averages less than 90, he hits a lot of treble 19’s and is sneakily effective player. He isn’t a contender for the title, but he might piss on somebody’s chips.
Andrew Gilding – 2/1 – 67.00
Gilding hasn’t played in this event since 2015 but he is in the form of his life having reached the final of the Belgian Darts Open last time out. He will give a good account of himself, but he has a tough first round opponent in Ross Smith.
Stephen Bunting – SF/1/2/1/1/2/SF – 151.00
As low as 41.00 with one firm, Bunting is a touch underrated at 151.00, but he would be an unlikely winner and 41.00 is very short. Bunting is a two time semi-finalist including last year. His recent form is very mixed, with some big averages, but losing five of his last seven matches.
Gabriel Clemens – 2/1 – 176.00
It is hard to get a handle on Clemens right now, but he remains hard to fancy. He has lost six of his last ten but on the doubles, he has had two matches with 100% checkout rates, but also three under 27%. Hard to see him reaching the business end of the event.
Adrian Lewis – 2/2/QF/2/QF/RU/1/2/2/2/2/2/1/2/1 – 126.00
A runner up in 2010 but has never progressed beyond the second round since. However, Lewis recently won a players championship event and looked in good form, before off oche problems derailed him again. He played OK in Belgium but remains very inconsistent. Making the third round may remain a bridge too far.
Martin Lukeman – Debut – 251.00
One of the big success stories on the euro tour but he lost his first round match in the Matchplay and he is very light on major experience. He has drawn James Wade in the first round which won’t be easy, and he lost to Wade 4-10 in the Matchplay.
Callan Rydz – 1 – 126.00
Rydz was in good form in the first half of the season, but he has only played eight matches since early May and won just three.
Kim Huybrechts – 1/1/1/2/QF/1/1/2 – 201.00
Has rarely averaged above 90 in his last ten matches and with this being a double in format, that will drop further. Very hard to see him making much progress.
Brendan Dolan – 2/1/1/1/RU/SF/1/1/1/2/1/1 – 126.00
Dolan made his reputation as The History Maker in this event back in 2011 by being the first to hit a nine dart leg in the double in format. He reached the final that year, and the semi-final the next year, but has won just the one match since.
The move away from Dublin to Leicester probably doesn’t help him. He has improved his form in the last two or three years, picking up some floor titles, including PC21 in July. He is never easy to call but he might win a match or two.
Ross Smith – 2 – 126.00
We backed Ross for the Belgian Darts Open at 101.00 and he missed three match darts to win his second round match, but that apart, he hasn’t done much wrong recently. He is hitting big averages and is a player who plays very well when he is on a roll. He may not be consistent over long spells, but when he is on it, he is worth support.
It was frustrating in Belgium, because he was looking like he could have gone all the way. He has rarely done himself justice in the majors, but he is playing well enough to have a decent run this week. He faces another in-form outsider in the peculiar shape of Andrew Gilding in the first round which won’t be easy.
The Double Element
Personally, I tend to concentrate more on recent form and matches won, rather than get blinded by concentrating on the double in element, but it is worth a look, if only to highlight players who are not in great form on the outer ring.
I have only looked at the stats since the 1st of July. I prefer the most recent form, rather than looking at the last 12 months, or just this season even.
In terms of checkout % in that period, it is Peter Wright who tops the list at 44% and he just shades Martin Lukeman and Danny Noppert, but there is little difference between Daryl Gurney in 17th place on 40% and those at the top. One player that does stand out is Van Gerwen. Ranked 31st of the 32 players at just 35%. Only Callan Rydz has a lower % and he has hardly played. Cullen is on 36% so he is another top player not quite at it on the doubles recently.
Wright Top On Tops
The most popular starting doubles will be tops, 16s and 18s. There is plenty of data for tops and the most proficient since the start of July is Peter Wright at 54.5%, narrowly ahead of Dirk van Duijvenbode on 54%. Dimitri van den Bergh and Ryan Searle are the only others over 50%. Bottom of the list is Luke Humphries on 32%. Others not hitting many tops are Clayton on 33%, Cullen 33% and Heta on 35%.
There isn’t so much data on double 18’s but Dave Chisnall is on 67%, Followed by Clayton in 50%, De Sousa 43%, Ross Smith and Daryl Gurney on 41%. Cullen and MVG are on 24% and 28% respectively.
Double 16 was used very effectively by Gurney and Clayton on the way to winning their titles and it is sure to be used by a few players this week. Since 1st July it is Andrew Gilding who has hit it 56% of the time, followed by Razma on 52%, Noppert on 50% and Ross Smith and Aspinall on 48%. Daryl Gurney, once mighty on the double 16s, is just 23%.
Make of that what you will. It looks good for Wright who confirmed the double 20 was going to be his double of choice and he tops that category, with Van Duijvenbode right with him.
In terms of 3 dart averages since 1st July, it is Peter Wright ranked first followed by Price, Humphries, Van Duijvenbode, Ross Smith, Heta, Noppert and MVG. The bottom five are Razma, Huybrechts, Rydz Wade and Dolan.
The Draw
Gerwyn Price is the number 1 seed and in the first quarter of the draw. He is joined by Schindler as his first-round opponent. Cullen faces Heta, Cross plays Gurney and Razma faces Searle. Price may not be at the top of his form, but he looks most likely to get through this quarter.
The second quarter has Michael Smith and James Wade as the two seeds, but neither makes much appeal given their tournament record in recent years. Live outsiders in the quarter are Ross Smith, Andrew Gilding, who face each other in the first round, and Danny Noppert who ticks a lot of boxes.
Nice Draw For Snakebite
The third quarter sees world champion, Peter Wright with a nice draw. He faces Huybrechts in the first round and very likely Ratajski in the second. The bottom half of the quarter is packed with livewires. Clayton faces Van Duijvenbode in the first round, a huge match, and Van den Bergh faces in the in form Chisnall. Pick one out of that lot if you can.
The bottom quarter has MVG and De Sousa has the two seeds, joined by Luke Humphries as the only other credible candidate to make the semis. Van Gerwen is not doing enough on the outer ring for me, De Sousa not consistent for my liking and that leaves Mr. Euro Tour to take his chances.
2022 World Grand Prix Ante Post Selections
His tournament record is strangely disappointing, but Peter Wright gets my backing this week. While he is in a difficult quarter of the draw, he is set to have two very winnable first and second round matches and that should mean he reaches the quarter finals, which he has only done twice before.
Along with the Grand Slam it is a major championship that he is yet to win, and it is a box he wants to tick. He is a big match player, a two-time World Champion, the top ranked player on double 20 in recent months, he has the highest 3 dart average and he’s a decent price.
2022 World Grand Prix Tip: 2 points Peter Wright to win the World Grand Prix @ 9.00 with Boylesports, Skybet
Gerwyn Price is the tournament favourite and he does have a decent draw in the top quarter. I have nailed my colours to the Snakebite mast, but Price won’t be far off. He is very good on tops, 44% in the last three months, and if he is firing them in, he will be formidable. He has been a finalist in the last two years, winning in 2020, and a semi-final should be well within his grasp.
2022 World Grand Prix Tip: 2 points Gerwyn Price to win the 1st quarter @ 2.50 with Betfair, Ladbrokes
Danny Noppert is a much improved player in 2022, winning his first major title at the UK Open back in March. He has made the semi-final in three of the last six majors and his draw is not the worst. He is scoring well and is ranked third for checkout% over the last three months. Hopefully he can have another strong run this week.
2022 World Grand Prix Tip: 1 point Danny Noppert to win the 2nd quarter @ 5.00 with Betfred
The fourth quarter looks to be between MVG and Luke Humphries. MVG looks vulnerable at the moment, his recent checkout rate is low enough to put him under pressure. Humphries is an improving player, growing up on and off the board. He has the talent to win big titles and he could well have a good run this week. He looks the better bet to come through the quarter.
2022 World Grand Prix Tip: 1 point Luke Humphries to win the 4th quarter @ 4.33 with Betfair
Ross Smith has been in great form lately and over the last three months has hit more 180s than anyone else in the tournament. That should help him make progress in matches.
His double 18 and double 16 hitting stats are encouraging (ranked 4th for both) and while he has a tough opening match against another form player, Andrew Gilding, if he can win that, this quarter should see him with a good chance to make a quarter final. Hopefully that will give him enough legs to rack up plenty of maximums.
