2023 Aintree Festival Saturday Preview & Tips – DS
2023 Aintree Festival Saturday Preview
We got off the mark with two nice places on Friday, despite the ground changing during the day. Lake Harbour (20/1 NB) and Strong Leader (16/1 NAP) both flew home for e/w money. Gin On Lime and Hurricane Bay both hated the ground but Thomas Darby simply wasn’t good enough. Hopefully we can finish with a winner on Grand National Day, Our 2023 Aintree Festival Saturday tips are below.
1.45 – Maghull Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
Just five runners and there’ll be much better opportunities for punting later on. Jobon should win but he’s priced accordingly. No bet
2023 Aintree Festival Saturday Tip: No Bet
2.25 – Village Hotels Handicap Hurdle (Premier)
Gatsby Grey looks overpriced here at odds of 16/1 for Oliver McKiernan and Philip Enright. By Waldpark, this 7yo has run nice races on his last two starts in handicap company. At Punchestown on New Year’s Eve he bounced back from a laboured comeback run, keeping on well from a very unpromising position over an inadequate trip of 19f (hvy). That effort came off 140 and he ran even better next time off a pound lower upped in trip at Leopardstown (24f yld).
In that valuable handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival Gatsby Grey ran a blinder to finish 5th of 17, 8.5L behind the winner Perceval Legallois. He didn’t get a totally clear run in that race but once he did, he flew home and it seems that he needs every inch of 24f to be seen to best effect.
McKiernan ran him in a Mickey Mouse race at Leopardstown last time over 18f, a trip well too short for this horse and it looks like it was a spin to keep him ticking over before having a go at this big pot. The step back up in trip today will suit, as will the ground, and on his G1 Irish form last year he should be capable of winning off his current mark of 141. At odds of 16/1, Gatsby Grey looks a cracking e/w bet.
2023 Aintree Festival Saturday Tip: Gatsby Grey e/w @ 16/1 (6 Places) NAP
3.00 – Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
Not the easiest of races to read, especially on what will likely be tacky, drying ground. Hermes Allen is on a retrieval mission after a bitterly disappointing effort at Cheltenham. He’s better than he showed in the Ballymore and his trainer Paul Nicholls has had a decent meeting so far with a few places and a big winner with Pic D’Orhy on Friday. I’d just be slightly concerned about the ground for this lad but if it keeps drying out, he should get away with it.
At absolutely huge odds, maybe Uncle Bert can outrun his odds for Nigel and Sam Twiston Davies. On the figures, this horse has absolutely no chance. The handicapper has rated him at 118, just the 32lbs lower than the fav. However, it could be argued that he deserves to be higher than that. It was admittedly an ordinary race he won last time at Warwick but some of his maiden hurdle form has a bit of substance to it.
Solid Debut
On debut on heavy at Sandown he ran a lovely race to chase home Colonel Harry, a horse I like a lot. The Snowden horse had an experience and fitness edge and he has since gone on to finish 4th in a G1 and 2nd behind Nemean Lion in a G2 at Kelso. Uncle Bert’s dam is a half to Vieux Lion Rouge, a horse that loved it at Aintree, and this step back up to 20f shouldn’t be an issue. Guard Your Dreams ran big in this race at huge odds for Twiston Davies two years ago, hopefully Uncle Bert can do the same at odds of 66/1.
2023 Aintree Festival Saturday Tip: Uncle Bert e/w @ 66/1
3.35 – Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1)
The mighty Dashel Drasher gave us a great run for our money at Cheltenham at silly odds. Unfortunately, the bookies aren’t being quite as generous on this occasion. The drying ground is not in his favour today either so this time, I’m going to instead side with another Oliver McKiernan horse, Meet And Greet.
With a rating of 151, this 7yo son of Mustameet needs to find a little bit on the figures. However, he was only 3.5L behind Home By The Lee when sent off an unconsidered 50/1 shot at Leopardstown (24f sft) at Xmas and he finished ahead of Flooring Porter, though his jockey did sit up a bit early. A decent run in a G3 over a trip far too short followed and then last time at Navan (21f gd/yld) he found just Blazing Khal too good (Stayers Hurdle winner Sire Du Berlais 7L back in 4th).
That form is rock solid and McKiernan’s charge will be well suited by the step back up to his optimal trip today. All ground seems to come alike to him so there are no worries in that department. He has already finished in close proximity to Flooring Porter and Home By The Lee, 11/2 and 4/1 here respectively. Meet And Greet is over twice their odds at 14/1 and he is most certainly worth chancing e/w.
2023 Aintree Festival Saturday Tip: Meet And Greet e/w @ 14/1 nb
4.15 – William Hill Handicap Chase (Premier)
The last race before the main event is a 25f handicap chase. Fergal O’Brien has his string in flying form and with Jack Hogan’s 5lb claim, Karl Philippe could go well for him here at around 14/1. This son of Kentucky Dynamite was last sighted in the Ultima at Cheltenham where he ran a pretty decent race despite being beaten 29 lengths. He was up there for a long way over the 26f trip but the hill and distance took its toll in the closing stages.
That was the 8yos first ever run beyond 20f and considering the profile of the track, it was a good run. This doesn’t look as hot a race as Cheltenham, it is over a furlong shorter and most importantly, it is on a flat track. Karl Philippe has form figures of 11212 on flat tracks and if he is going to stay this far, it’ll be on a track with that kind of profile. Soft ground is fine, Jack Hogan has won on him before so at odds of 14/1, Karl Philippe can hopefully make a bold bid from the front.
2023 Aintree Festival Saturday Tip: Karl Philippe e/w @ 14/1 (4 places)
5.15 – Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier)
We have already looked at the race in depth. Our runner by runner guide is here, and you can get our two ante-post outsider bets here. After all the rain yesterday Minella Trump could be up against it so I’m going to back one more horse that won’t mind the ground and the one that fits the bill is Fortescue. We backed him last time out when he finished 5th at Haydock.
In that race he got well behind but he did stay on pretty well once the race was over. We also backed him in the Welsh National and on that occasion, he ran no sort of race and was pulled up. Just like at Haydock he raced very lazily early on but this time, his jockey decided not to persist with him and pulled him up.
Becher Form
So, why are we backing him again? Well, three runs ago, back in early December, Henry Daly’s charge ran a blinding race in the Becher over these fences. He was again in rear early but the unique fences seemed to keep him interested and he stayed on really well up the run in for 4th, 10L behind the winner off a mark of 145.
Usually, he wouldn’t have a chance of getting in off his current mark of 140 and he does have to race from 3lbs out of the handicap. Even so, he is still 2lbs lower than he was for the Becher and hopefully the first time blinkers sharpen up his concentration and he doesn’t get too far behind early. On the forecast ground this could prove to be an attritional race but all this horse does is stay and that will be an asset in these conditions. Hopefully Fortescue can plug on late for place money at odds of 100/1. Best of luck with whatever horses you decide to back and hopefully it’s a great race.
