2023 Dutch GP Outright Betting Preview

It feels like a lifetime since the Belgian GP. James Punt has enjoyed a month off and he is back with his 2023 Dutch GP outright betting preview. Check it out below.

2023 Dutch GP Outright Preview

With Dutchman Max Verstappen leading the Formula 1 championship by 125 points, the F1 road show heads to the Netherlands for the Dutch Grand Prix and Verstappen’s home race.

The Zandvoort circuit was redesigned for a planned return to the calendar in 2020, but the pandemic meant that the first race on the new layout was in 2021.

This track is a fast one with fourteen corners, four of which are relatively slow, but much of the lap is fast and flowing and the final corner is a long duration, steeply banked curve which allows the drivers to carry a lot of speed onto the long starting straight.

Compact Track

The circuit does not take up much land and it was designed by the same man, John Hugenholtz, who designed Suzuka in Japan. That is similar in its compact nature. The banked curves allow for the speed of the cars to be higher than if they were flat.

The result is a short, fairly fast, very busy lap and a little like the Hungaroring in that respect. This 2023 Dutch GP track is narrow, overtaking tricky and with little real estate to park a damaged car away from the action, virtual and actual safety cars are likely.

With just two races held on the new layout, it is hard to build up any great form guide based on what has gone before. Many of the younger drivers raced here in the junior formula and have more experience of the track, but not on exactly the same lay out.

The track is situated in the sand dunes of Zandvoort and it is built in a small parcel of land and it is a very compact, busy, undulating circuit. It is pretty unique in terms of its layout and the drivers find it challenging.

Orange Sea

The crowd will be a sea of orange, here to cheer home their national hero who is seeking a ninth consecutive race win. That would equal the record set by Sebastian Vettel. It would also be the thirteenth race win out of thirteenth races for Red Bull in 2023.

Needless to say, Verstappen is the 1.28 favourite to win the Grand Prix. To say he is dominating the 2023 season would be a massive understatement and despite Sergio Perez’ rather lacklustre performances of late, Red Bull are no less than 256 points clear of Mercedes in second place.

Let’s not kid on. The titles are decided. Max will be World Champion and Red Bull will win the constructor’s title. The race for second place is a little more interesting, but Sergio Perez now has a forty point lead over third placed Fernando Alonso, who in turn is just one point ahead of Lewis Hamilton.

With Aston Martin fading fast, the likelihood is that it will be Hamilton who finishes the season as best of the non-Red Bull drivers. Perez is now a 1.25 chance to win our ante post bet to win the world championship without Max Verstappen.

Prolonged Coronation

The second half of the 2023 season will be a pronged coronation for Verstappen. The only questions are how much he will win by, how many races he will win and how many records will be broken. It is not a very exciting prospect for the casual viewer. For the hardcore fans, there are still some interesting sub plots outside of the championships.

With the championships effectively over the teams have some interesting decisions to make. To shift their focus entirely to their 2024 cars or to spend some more of their limited budget on improving the 2023 car.

Of course, teams can develop ideas and parts for their 2024 cars and effectively run them in 2023 on a test basis. Some teams are chasing prizemoney and trying to improve their position in the constructor’s championship, but this is a two edged sword.

The higher up the table a team finishes means the less wind tunnel and computer design time allowed for 2024. Unless a team really needs the cash, where is the incentive to spend limited resources on improving the 2023 car?

Williams Aiming At 2024

Williams have said they are done with 2023. Not another penny will be spent on this year’s car. Mercedes on the other hand are committing to spending some more on this year’s car, purely because they need to try and understand it.

The regulations are fixed for 2024 so there will be plenty of carryover from 2023 to 2024. Mercedes screwed up by sticking with a flawed concept for too long. They are having to play catch up and may not have the luxury of switching off development quite as early as some others.

2023 Dutch GP: Past Form

We have only had two races on this revised Zandvoort layout and both of them were won by, yes, Max Verstappen, both form pole position. The only blot on his Zandvoort copy book is that he didn’t get the point for fastest lap in 2021. Same again? Very likely.

Mercedes have finished in second place twice, one each for Hamilton and Russell. Another podium for Mercedes this weekend? Very possibly. Hamilton has got his juices flowing again while Russell is under the pump as a result.

Charles Leclerc was fifth in 2021 and third in 2023, Carlos Sainz has finished seventh and eighth. Lando Norris, Esteban Ocon and Fernando Alonso have finished in the points on both occasions. Alonso has back to back sixth places.

2023 Dutch GP Recent Form – Team by Team

red bull

Their domination continues. They can safely switch off their 2023 development and coast to two titles. They could freeze the car as it is now and just have track specific wing changes for the likes of Monza, and still win every race. Red Bull are that far ahead.

Will they win every race? So long as Verstappen enjoys perfect reliability I would say so. If he were to have a DNF, Sergio Perez is not a shoe in to take the win for Red Bull. He has only finished first or second in five of the twelve races so far. Not bad, but in a car that is so far ahead of the opposition, it is not good.

Mercedes

Since they ditched the zero pod concept they have improved, but not spectacularly. Three podiums from the two races in Spain and Canada suggested that they had hit the bullseye with their new design, but since then they have scored just the one podium.

They have had both cars in the top 6 for the last three races and that solid accumulation of points makes them strong favourites to finish in second place at the end of the season.  Mercedes were good here last year, landing a second and fourth place to go with a second and third in 2021.

Hamilton has his tail up now that the dreaded zero pod design has been binned, so he is on the shortlist for a podium on Sunday. Russell is finding out that it can be a tough gig partnering Hamilton and he has looked some way of his best recently.

Aston Martin

Are in third place but based on more recent form, they are now behind Red Bull, Mercedes and McLaren. Their development has stalled as recent upgrades haven’t improved performance.

They took an early decision to go down the Red Bull path in terms of design and it paid off in the early races. Mercedes started poorly and Ferrari were inconsistent. This flattered Aston Martin and their true level is being established.

Six podiums from the first eight races, but only two fifth places from the last four sums up their slide down the pecking order. Alonso is being reeled in by Hamilton and Stroll has manged just seven points from the last five races. Stroll did not take part in today’s driver’s press conference ‘due to illness’.

Ferrari

Only five points behind Aston Martin and they have had two podiums from the last four races. They remain a very difficult team to understand, but it is fair to say they are still dysfunctional and under achieving.

The car has decent pace but the team have not really been able to convert good one lap pace into good race pace. Occasionally they find a sweet spot but when they are going to do so is hard to tell. Leclerc is tied with George Russell on 99 points and it is a nice little sub plot, but my money would be on Russell to prevail.

Carlos Sainz is still pitching in with regular points finishes, but it is rumoured that he is looking outside of Ferrari for next year’s drive. Ferrari is not a happy ship and they remain hard to fancy. They have said that wind tunnel work on this year’s car finished at the end of July and the results of that work will be seen at Qatar or Austin.

Clearly Ferrari are winding down their 2023 season early, happier to work on the 2024 car and give themselves more wind tunnel time by not finishing higher than third at best.

McLaren

The momentum team going into the summer break was McLaren. Their upgraded car has made huge strides. Lando Norris has picked up 57 points from the last three races and Oscar Piastri 29. They are 88 points behind Ferrari and that is a big gap to close in the remaining ten races, but on recent form McLaren have the faster car.

Slow corners are still a relative weakness, but they have a better all round package now. The layout of this track should be pretty good for them. Norris loves this track and in his Formula 3 days he had a pole position, two wins and a third place from three races. He has to be fancied to be in the hunt for another podium finish.

Oscar Piastri was very impressive in Belgium right up until he had a racing incident at the first corner in the actual race. He was second in the sprint race and he is growing into F1 very nicely.  It would seem that McLaren have been able to get more downforce from a new floor which is much closer to what Red Bull have been enjoying.

Alpine

They are disintegrating. Their management structure has been very strange in recent seasons and now they have cleared out the top line managers in something of a cull. They have made scapegoats out of some very good people and it doesn’t look good.

Morale is low and a big managerial reshuffle midseason is not going to help. Minor points are still possible but there is a culture of blame and fear which never works out well. They have gone well here in the first two races, finishing sixth and ninth in both, so don’t write off them picking up a few points.

Williams

They have decided that there is nothing to be gained from spending more resources on this year’s car. They are tied on eleven points with Haas and two clear of Alfa Romeo.

Williams should have a good enough car/driver combination in the shape of Alex Albon to pick up a few more points, retain seventh place and spend their resources on next year’s car. It sounds like a wise decision. They will fancy their chances of a big result in Italy next weekend.

Alfa Romeo

Continue to be very anonymous. Pointless in the last four races, but not miles away with four twelfth places in a row. Luck looks to be required if they are to add to their nine points scored so far.

Alpha Tauri

Picked up a point in Belgium and maybe Tsunoda has responded to having Daniel Ricciardo parachuted into the team. The Japanese driver knows he has to up his game to prolong his F1 career and he did just that at Spa. He has retired here for the last two years so this may not be his favourite venue. Riccardo has failed to score a point here either.

2023 Dutch GP: Weather Forecast

Wet weather has been a feature of five of the last six qualifying sessions but only Monaco has seen a wet race. This weekend may see some wet conditions.

Friday looks set to be cloudy but dry and 22 degrees. Saturday has the possibility for light showers all day, while Sunday should be partly cloudy but most likely to be dry for the race.

All three days will see a stiff sea breeze but the general consensus is that any rain will be light and showery in nature and not likely to be a major factor.

Ante Post Selections

It goes without saying that Max Verstappen is very likely to win. There are no credible threats. We are looking at who could join him on the podium.

Last year saw Charles Leclerc missing out on pole position by 0.021 seconds with Carlos Sainz in third. In the race Leclerc finished third and Sainz eighth after a typically calamitous series of cock ups. Not much has changed in twelve months.

Charles Leclerc remains the second best qualifier in 2023, but he has only secured one pole in 2023. He has been second on three occasions and only Perez (twice) and Hamilton once have joined Verstappen and Leclerc as being a fastest qualifier this season.

Vulnerable in Qualifying

If Verstappen is beatable, it is slightly more likely to happen in qualifying than in the race. He has been fastest qualifier eight times in 2023, but won ten races.

The brilliant RB 19 is a better race car than qualifier but it still rules the roost in that arena. It may be a little more vulnerable here than on most tracks as the lap is a short one. Any slight mistake can be the difference between pole and maybe even third or fourth.

We saw very close margins on the short lap in Monaco, where Verstappen was just 0.084 faster than Alonso. Hungary and Austria are the other ‘shorties’ we have seen so far. In Hungary, it was Lewis Hamilton who was 0.003 ahead of Verstappen and in Austria Leclerc was just 0.048 off Verstappen.

Zandvoort is another ‘shortie’. Just 4.26 KM and a 72 lap race is very much in the group of tracks where the margin of victory on Saturday is likely to be small.

In 2022 it was Verstappen who was the fastest qualifier by 0.021 seconds ahead of Leclerc. In 2021 Verstappen beat Hamilton to pole by 0.038.

Who could be faster than Verstappen this Saturday if the Dutchman was to have a sub optimal Q3 performance?

Leclerc A Strong Qualifier

Charles Leclerc is an obvious choice. He is a very strong one lap merchant and his Ferrari has good one lap pace.

Lewis Hamilton beat Verstappen to pole as recently as Hungary and was second in the 2021 qualifying session here.

Lando Norris now has a car that is giving him a chance on Saturday. He was second fastest at Silverstone (a strong track for the McLaren) and third fastest in Hungary, a not so strong track for McLaren. Spa was a bit off trend but McLaren had gambled on rain for Sunday and had compromised the set up accordingly.

Mr Saturday Faltering

Mr. Saturday, George Russell, hasn’t been impressive more recently. Sergio Perez has the car but lacks the ability and Alonso has dropped out of contention as his cars competitive ness has dropped off.

A dark horse has to be Oscar Piastri in the other McLaren. He is hitting his stride and McLaren have got themselves a very strong driver line up, pushing each other along with the luxury of not being under any real pressure.

Verstappen is the 1.44 favourite, which given he has got eight of the twelve poles so far, is an accurate reflection of what he has achieved overall and indeed reflects his record on the shorter circuits.

E/W Value With Leclerc

Charles Leclerc is a 21.00 shot which is a good e/w betting opportunity. He has been in the top two places in qualifying in four of the twelve sessions in 2023, including in the last race of the season at Spa.

Lewis Hamilton is 11.00 which is poor value. The Mercedes is a better race car than one lap performer and his pole in Budapest was his only front row of the season. Lando Norris has only really been a factor since the McLaren got its major upgrade.

Across the last four qualifying sessions Norris has averaged 4.00 in qualifying. His best result was at Silverstone, which played to the cars already existing strengths.

More encouraging for McLaren was Oscar Piastri getting within 0.011 of Verstappen in the sprint shootout at Spa. Clearly the McLaren is in the game now. Norris is a 9.00 shot which is on the short side, Piastri is 23.00 which makes more appeal.

It will probably be a good value loser, but I’ll take a chance on Charles Leclerc in qualifying. Ferrari’s poor season is based on the their race performance. In terms of qualifying performances, only Verstappen has done better.

The momentum is with McLaren but that is reflected in their odds. I think the market is writing off Leclerc based on race pace, not qualifying pace, where he remains a potent force.

2023 Dutch GP Tip: 1 point e/w Charles Leclerc to be the fastest qualifier @ 21.0 with Betvictor, Boylesports, Skybet, BET365, Ladbrokes

We looked earlier at the winning margin in the short lap tracks qualifying sessions and saw that in 2023, in Monaco, Hungary and Austria the margin has been under 0.1 seconds and on both occasions on this track it has been under 0.1 seconds.

2023 Dutch GP Tip: 2 points Under 0.1 seconds winning qualifying margin @ 2.87 with Boylesports

For the race itself I have been looking for the ‘without Max Verstappen’ markets and not seeing very many, but there are a few. I am happier to keep the race betting until after qualifying as the swings in form, track to track for the chasing pack has been so volatile. However, there is one which looks worth taking on now for modest stakes.

McLaren are in the ascendancy and this is a track which Lando Norris both likes and has done well on in F3 and has finished top 10 in both Grand Prix.

The track has enough fast corners to think that their car will be strong on large parts of it and the fact that Norris came second in Budapest, another busy, short track, is further encouragement.

2023 Dutch GP Tip: 1 point Lando Norris to win ‘without Max Verstappen’ @ 4.00 with Unibet

There will be the usual updates for Qualifying on Saturday and the race day update on Sunday.

-JamesPunt