2023 Dutch GP Qualifying Preview

James Punt has already posted his outright betting preview for the Dutch GP, check that out here. Now, it is time for his 2023 Dutch GP qualifying preview, check it out below.

2023 Dutch GP Qualifying

We had two dry sessions on Friday and I was looking forward to a good FP3 session to show us who had made progress with their setups overnight. However, the track was soaking wet after a deluge and we had a session run on full wets and then inters.

There was something of a dry line appearing towards the very end of the session and the lap times where falling fast. As such, the finishing order of FP3 isn’t a great guide as to what will happen in qualifying.

Verstappen was over 0.37 faster that Russell in second place and 1.00 faster than Perez in third place. No great surprise there. Perez getting as high as third in wet conditions was something of a surprise but he set his time at the death.

Rain Not Ideal

Hopefully that is the last of the rain as this is not a good track for wet conditions. It is very narrow and these big cars are never far away from the slippy painted white lines on the edge of the track. Put a wheel on one of those under acceleration and the car is spinning.

With so little room around the track that means a red flag is likely and we had no less than three of those in FP3.

From what we have seen so far, Verstappen is the man to beat but the two McLarens do look very good here. Norris was talking up his chances for qualifying but acknowledged that the Red Bull is better over a race distance. We have backed him for the race without Verstappen so hopefully we get a run for our money tomorrow.

Ferrari Faltering

Sadly I picked the wrong track to support Ferrari. Their car has looked to be a real handful. Sainz has been doing a lot of off-roading and both he and Leclerc just couldn’t carry any speed into the first corner and had to bale out down the escape road instead.

The car has no rear end stability and in the wet you need the car to be predictable and planted, which the Ferrari is not.

McLaren have gone well in the wet this season and cool damp conditions would play into their hands. The drivers are finding that it was taking two or three laps to get the inters warmed up, but the McLaren has the ability to do that much quicker. If conditions remain the same or similar to FP3, then the McLaren might be the car to be in.

Margin Bet

Our other qualifying bet is for the winning margin to be under 0.10 seconds. In the dry that was looking good, but if we end up with a wet or wet-drying track, the margin could be quite large.

The weather forecast a few days ago said that the weather would be showery on Saturday morning and improving in the afternoon.

This session starts at 3.00pm local time and the raincast has the rain stopping some 20 minutes before the start of the session. The sun is expected to come out and that could dry things out reasonably quickly.

Q1 could be damp and it will be tricky session in any case. The narrow track means tripping up over other cars is going to be a problem and I expect one or two hard luck stories.

Weather Worries

The weather is not conducive to a great betting session. Accidents, red flags, drivers getting baulked, others getting the sweet spot on a drying track does make it all a bit random. Verstappen is the 1.40 favourite, much as he was ante-post, Norris is the 8.00 second favourite, Hamilton 11.00, Russell 15.00, Perez 21.00 and Piastri 23.00.

Wet or dry, McLaren do seem to have the best chance to be second or even pip Verstappen to be the fastest qualifier. Norris is very good on the track and so long as he gets the necessary breaks, a clean run especially in Q1, he looks to be the value bet.

2023 Dutch GP qualifying Tip: 1 point e/w Lando Norris to be the fastest qualifier @ 7.50 William Hill

Alex Albon in the Williams has been in great form all weekend and his car is an improving one. He has made Q3 four times in 2023 and three times in the last five.

He has done it three times in wet or damp-drying conditions and he has been in the top 6 in every session so far. Low fuel? Maybe but in all three sessions? That makes no sense.

He is a 1.67 shot to out qualify Pierre Gasly and he has been comfortably faster in all three sessions so far. Gasly has only made Q3 in one of the last five qualifying sessions and Albon looks just about worth backing against the Frenchman.

2023 Dutch GP qualifying Tip: 1 point Alex Albon to out qualify Pierre Gasly @ 1.67 with Ladbrokes

-JamesPunt