2023 Italian GP Betting Preview

It is fair to say that James’ Dutch GP raceday preview didn’t quite go as he had hoped. It was a rare off day for Sir Punt but we have no doubt that he will bounce back strongly, if not this week, then very soon. He has penned an in-depth, team by team 2023 Italian GP outright betting preview, check it out below.

2023 Italian GP

Last Sunday’s race was nothing short of a disaster betting wise.

We went into the race in pretty good shape and I was confident of some winners. However, the heavy downpour moments after the start ruined everything. Just about all our backed drivers chose to, or were told to, stay out on their dry tyres. That was despite the track being absolutely soaked.

There is a simple rule when it comes to rain. If the track is soaking, put wet weather tyres on. Trying to be too clever is very risky and it didn’t pay off.

Perez made the quick decision to pit for inters and he flew through the pack to lead the race within a couple of laps. Despite Perez demonstrating that inters was the way to go, Mercedes, McLaren and Williams decided to keep their drivers out on slicks.

Dreadful Conditions

So bad were the conditions that those drivers’ races were over on the back of poor strategy calls. Of our selections, only Zhou gained from the chaos, but he was caught out by the second deluge near the end of the race and crashed out of the race, just to make sure every bet was a loser.

Hamilton was faster than Sainz but with no DRS allowed in the closing wet laps, he just couldn’t pass. Stroll missed out on points by one place and it was a horrible day’s punting.

Jump straight back on the horse after a fall is said to be the way to go, and there is no time to lick the wounds as we are off to Italy for this weekend’s Italian GP.

Old School Track

Monza, the cathedral of speed, is a proper old school racetrack with history and a standout configuration. It is all about top speed, a flat to the floor test of straight line speed with a few chicanes to slow things down and a few corners to join the straights together.

When the regulations were changed in 2014, turning F1 into an engine formula, the race required Mercedes power.

Such was their dominance in the power department, Mercedes won every race here from 2014 to 2018 but by then the other power units had closed the gap and we had a rare home win for Ferrari in 2019 with their very powerful (but illegal) power unit.

Pierre Gasly benefited from a bizarre turn of events to win for Alpha Tauri – Honda in 2020, Daniel Ricciardo led home a McLaren 1-2 in 2021 and Verstappen finally got his first Italian GP podium with his win last season.

Monza Curse

From the tedium of Mercedes power based dominance for five years, we have had five different winners here in the last five years. Could we have a sixth come Sunday? Well, the ‘Monza curse’ would suggest we could. The last three winners of this race have not only failed to defend the win, they have suffered a DNF. Hokum, of course.

An end to Verstappen’s run of nine consecutive race wins in 2023 would seem unlikely, but in some respects, Red Bull could be more vulnerable here than at just about any other track.

The layout of the Monza circuit has just four corners and three chicanes and it is basically a series of straights linked by the four corners with the three chicanes thrown in to keep the speeds within reasonable safety levels.

Low Downforce Key

Clearly, to win here you need a car that is powerful and good in a low downforce set up. The four corners are pretty fast so you can’t ignore them, some downforce is required to keep the cars on the track, but the trick is to minimize the car’s drag whilst having enough corner grip to stay on the tarmac.

In the past we have seen some pretty poor cars performing surprisingly well here. A draggy car can suddenly come alive when the downforce producing wings are trimmed down and the emphasis is put on straight line pace. However, with these ground effect cars producing more downforce from the floor, that is less likely than in the past.

Looking at the speed trap figures for the last six races of 2023, the bad news for Red Bull’s rivals is that the RB16 is right up there for top speeds. Only the Williams has been faster, and not by much. Others that have shown up well top speed wise are Alfa Romeo and Alpha Tauri. Ferrari are middling and the slower top speeds have tended to come from McLaren and Mercedes.

Last Year

Looking at last year’s race, the first with the new ground effect cars, Charles Leclerc qualified on pole with Sainz third. Verstappen was the Red Bull meat in a Ferrari sandwich in second.

The race saw no less than nine drivers taking grid penalties for taking on new power unit elements, including Verstappen who dropped back to seventh and Sainz to eighteenth.

Despite his grid penalty, Verstappen won the race by 2.44 seconds (it was a safety car finish so the gap is irrelevant). Leclerc finished second, Russell third and Sainz fourth despite his huge grid penalty.

What was unusual was that Sainz was the fastest through the speed trap and Leclerc the slowest. Third placed Russell was equally tawdry through the speed trap. Clearly, Monza is not all about top speed. Having good grip in the few corners still counts, especially the very long duration Parabolica, the double right hander to finish the lap.

Traction out of the corners is also helped by having a bit more downforce, as is tyre wear. As always, it is about finding the best trade-off between gaining as much straight line speed as possible and losing the least time in the corners as a result of the track specific lower drag wings brought to this track.

Red Bull Remain The Team To Beat

This is why Red Bull will remain the team to beat at Monza. Their car produces the most efficient downforce and they will lose relatively less cornering performance when running skinny wings.

These ground effect cars generate more downforce from the floor than the wings and that is one part of Red Bull’s greatest strengths. The fact that their car has such efficient aerodynamics gives Red Bull the luxury of being able to run with a bigger rear wing than anyone else, without compromising straight line speed to any great margin.

The advantage of this is to allow for better cornering speeds and just as importantly, minimise tyre degradation. A car running a low downforce set up, with less grip in the corners, means the tyres can slide, that slide heats up surface of the tyre and it wears more quickly. Red Bull can minimise any sliding and look after their tyres much more effectively.

Weak DRS

Another feature of the Monza circuit is how weak the DRS is. Running skinny rear wings means that when the DRS is deployed, not a lot happens. The wings are producing so little drag that opening the slot doesn’t make a lot of difference.

Is this one area of dominance that the Red Bull will not have this weekend? No. They can run with a bigger, more loaded rear wing, and when the DRS slot is opened, it will give a bit of a speed boost. Not by as much as usual, but more than the other cars.

Alternative Tyre Allocation

This weekend is a normal format with no sprint race, but it will be another experimental ‘alternative tyre allocation’ race weekend. Only 11 sets of tyres per driver will be provided. Four sets of softs, four mediums and three sets of hard compound tyres.

In qualifying, drivers will have to use the hard in Q1, medium in Q2 and the soft in Q3. This was first trialled in Hungary and the result was a pretty strange looking grid.

Hamilton took pole by a whisker from Verstappen. We had the two Alfa Romeo’s in fifth and seventh which was a real outlier. It is too early to say if this system is really going to mix things up, but we have to consider the possibility.

One final thing to watch out for, especially if you are having any ante post bets on the 2023 Italian GP, is that this has traditionally been a race where teams decide to take grid penalties for taking on new power units or gear boxes.

We had nine drivers taking big hits last year, two in 2021, five in 2019, three in 2018, nine in 2017 and so on. This is a race were holding fire until after qualifying makes a lot of sense.

2023 Italian GP: Driver Records

Looking at driver records from the start of the turbo hybrid era in 2014, Lewis Hamilton has the best record with five wins and two other podium finishes. His last podium was in 2019 and his last win was in 2018.

His success, and Mercedes’ success, here was due to their huge power advantage in the early days of the of the turbo hybrid era cars. Valtteri Bottas has never won here but he too was a beneficiary of Mercedes power, both in a Williams and Mercedes. He scored eight consecutive top six races, including four podiums, but that run ended with a thirteenth for Alfa Romeo last year.

Consistent Checo

Sergio Perez has a very consistent record at Monza with nine consecutive points finishes but never better than fifth. Max Verstappen was hamstrung by a lack of a decent power unit for many years, but he got his first win and only podium last season.

Lando Norris has been in the points for his four races here with a second place in 2020 his best result. Charles Leclerc was a win and second place from his four starts. Esteban Ocon has had four top ten finishes and teammate Gasly got his sole F1 race win here in 2020.

Some drivers have never had much success here in the turbo hybrid era. Alonso had had just one points finish from his last seven starts here and Kevin Magnussen a sole tenth place in 2014.

2023 Italian GP: Team by Team Outlook

Red Bull

Continue to leave the rest of the field gasping. Mother nature threw a lot at Verstappen in his home race with a wet-dry-wet race at Zandvoort.

That put plenty of banana skins in their path but they came out with another win and a fourth place for Perez who got a 5 second penalty for speeding in the pit lane, costing him a podium. That has cut Perez lead over third place man Fernando Alonso to 33 points.

Verstappen is enjoying dominating the races and there is no chance that he is going to take his foot of the gas.

Perez Disappointing

Perez continues to disappoint. He isn’t enjoying getting thrashed by his teammate race in, race out. He should be able to take advantage of the Red Bulls’ superiority on this straightforward track on which he has delivered a lot of solid performances. Checo will need it to be dry.

Red Bull struggled here in the years when they didn’t have a competitive power unit but that is no longer the case. I would expect Verstappen win again.

Perez only finished sixth last year, but he had to start from thirteenth after taking a grid penalty. He has gone well on the high speed tracks this season and he should be able to land his first Italian GP podium, if its dry.

Mercedes

Have not won here since 2018 but Russell scored a podium last year, Bottas in 2021 and it was a double podium in 2019.

Their form has tailed off somewhat in 2023. Russell, and perhaps Hamilton, should have scored a podium last weekend but a completely botched race strategy ended any hope of that.

They remain forty points clear of Aston Martin in third place but Alonso’s podium last weekend and Aston’s promise to continue development of the car will have caused some alarm at Brackley.

Their car didn’t go well at the last high speed track F1 visited. The old porpoising problem raised its head at Spa but they still managed a fourth place with Hamilton. They should be in the mix with McLaren, Ferrari and Aston Martin for best of the rest. Their straight line speed is not amongst the best and that may cost them a podium finish.

McLaren

One of the teams that cocked up on strategy at Zandvoort. Leaving Norris out on the slicks ended his chances of a podium very quickly and they have not covered themselves in glory in the last two races.

They ran too much downforce at Spa for the conditions but that was a setup gamble gone wrong. They ran a new rear wing at Zandvoort on Friday, a lower drag rear wing, but didn’t race it with rain in the forecast. It will be used at Monza.

The running they did do was enough to show that it worked. They have a car that is on the draggy side but it is improving at the new rear wing is an attempt to increase top speed. On paper Monza might not be their best venue, but this upgraded car is much improved and more decent points should be the aim.

Aston Martin

Bounced back to top form in The Netherlands to which the team brough some upgrades, most notably a new floor. It did the trick for Alonso at least. An efficient floor will be an asset around this track.

Judging by the back to back test he did with the new floor at Zandvoort, it is a significant improvement. He was second fastest with the new floor in FP1 and only tenth with the old one in FP2. The team have confirmed that they are continuing to develop their car through to the end of the season.

Alonso has not had the tools to do well here in the turbo hybrid era but he should be looking at bettering his best result since 2014, an eighth place in 2021.

It is hard to say by how much the new parts brought to Zandvoort contributed to his second place finish. Some would say that he was the reason for a great result in difficult conditions. We shall learn a bit more about where the team are this weekend.

Lance Stroll has only scored seven points from the last six races, but he has enjoyed some decent results here, including a third place for Racing Point in 2020.

Ferrari

It was a mixed bag for Ferrari last week. Carlos Sainz hung on to a fifth place finish, holding off the faster Lewis Hamilton thanks to the DRS being disabled in the wet finish. Charles Leclerc suffered damage to his underfloor on the opening laps and eventually retired from the race.

With this being their big home race, the pressure is really on. As ever, the knives are out, a permanent state of being at Ferrari. It is a bit harsh as Ferrari are not really one of the big teams anymore.

They haven’t won’t won a driver’s championship since 2007 and their last constructor’s title was in 2008. Their problem is that their fans think they have a divine right to be champions. This season is another one of underachievement. Just fourth in the constructor’s championship, no race wins and just three podiums.

Spoiled Tifosi

Ferrari fans were spoiled in the Schumacher/Barrichello days, winning seven Italian GPs between 1996 and 2006. Since then, just two more home wins. One for Alonso in 2010 and Charles Leclerc in 2019. Their second and fourth result last year would be most welcome this Sunday.

In the nine races in the turbo hybrid era, Ferrari have won one Italian GP, scored a podium in five others, but no double podiums. Historic form shows a 33.33% podium strike rate at Monza from 2014 and they should be in the mix once more.

However, trying to predict when and where their car will be competitive is very difficult, even for the team themselves. It could be another classic, fast in qualifying, slower in the race weekend.

Williams

This race will have been on Williams’ radar for some time. It was a track that rewarded them in the early days of the turbo hybrid era.

They had back to back third places in 2014 and 2015 and have only failed to score points in two of the last nine races here. Williams have finished ninth for the last two years and that was big news for the team.

They have stepped on the gas in 2023 and the car has improved significantly in recent races. They are up to seventh place in the constructor’s championship and that is likely as high as they can go with Alpine fifty eight points ahead.

However, a decent result and they will have secured that seventh place. That would be their highest finish since 2017 when they finished fifth.

Straight Line Speed

In the first half of the season, the car’s party trick was straight line speed. It was a very slippy car and went very well in low downforce situations. As a result, they will have been looking forward to Monza.

In recent races, the car has become more of an all-rounder and Albon a regular top 10 qualifier. They really hit the sweet spot last weekend with Albon qualifying in fourth place and Sargeant tenth.

The fact that Sargeant made Q3 tells us that the car really has made progress. He kept on crashing, but the car has pace. They were one of the teams who dropped the ball strategy wise in the race and Albon did very well to rescue an eighth place finish. However, having qualified fourth, it should have been a better result.

Albon said that Zandvoort was a track where the team did not expect to go well, yet they had a great qualifying session, Albon was in the top 6 in every timed session, right up until it started raining on the first lap, and the team ignored the state of the track and told him to stay out on slicks.

Strongest Track

How well can they go on their strongest track with their best package for six years? They finished seventh and eighth in 2017 and something similar should be the target this weekend. Albon finished sixth for Red Bull 2019 and that could be bettered come Sunday.

Albon had to withdraw from this race last year. A burst appendix required emergency surgery. He was replaced late in the weekend by Nyck DeVries who went on to finish an unlikely ninth.

Albon is due a break and his ducks are lining up nicely for this race. A points finish is the bare minimum that is possible, a top 6 is not unrealistic. A podium? That is probably a bit ambitious but stranger things have happened.

Sargeant Under Pressure

Logan Sargeant did well in qualifying last weekend, up to a point. That point was crashing in Q3. He crashed again in the race and from getting kudos for reaching his first ever Q3, the weekend ended with a hefty repair bill and no points. He is under pressure to keep the seat and last weekend might not have done him any favours.

Yes, he made Q3, but he was still way short of Albon, and then he crashed, twice. This track offers him a chance to make amends. A top 10 finish is very possible given the attributes of the Williams. If he falls short, the team should be looking elsewhere. He has to perform under pressure, but he has to be a contender for points.

Alpine

What a bizarre season they are having. At times they just couldn’t get a break and were a lightning conductor for bad luck. However, Gasly’s third place last week and his third in the sprint race at Spa have made up for much of their misfortune.

They have picked up twenty six points in the last two races and they are now just 38 points off McLaren in fifth place. Real pace or good fortune? The latter, I fear. Their pace was only middling but Gasly drove a good race and took advantage of others dropping the ball.

Their power unit is said to be some 30BHP down on the top teams and that is reflected in their top speeds, but on occasions they have looked quite good on long straights. This could be a hard race for them to score points on merit, especially if Williams are as strong as they should be.

Haas

While Verstappen is on a run of nine straight wins, Haas have had a run of eight races without scoring a point. That is their way, score a few points early on and fade away with a lack of development. It is hard to see any reason why they should do any better this weekend.

Alfa Romeo

Are on a run of five pointless races but their car has shown some good top speeds in recent races. Zhou managed a tenth place finish here last year after qualifying ninth.

Their qualifying pace in 2023 is poor and they will need luck to get back to scoring points. They could be one of those cars that surprises in a very low downforce set up and that 2022 result came from out of the blue, so it may be worth keeping an eye on them this weekend.

Alpha Tauri

It is hard to think that this team won this race as recently as 2020. They also won it in 2008 when running under the Toro Rosso moniker.

Tsunoda scored a point at Spa and he showed good pace on Friday last weekend. The team have not been helped by firing Nyck DeVries and then losing his replacement, Daniel Ricciardo to injury last weekend. Liam Lawson stood in a late notice and finished a creditable thirteenth in a chaotic F1 race debut.

The car has shown some good top speeds recently and perhaps they could get close to the points, but there are more likely candidates.

Weather Forecast

I can’t remember a season where we have had so many qualifying sessions affected by rain. Six of the last seven have seen a wet or damp track at some point. Surely, we can count on a nice, warm, sunny, late summer’s day for the 2023 Italian GP?

The answer looks to be yes, we can. All three days will be very warm at 27- 30 degrees. Sunday will be the warmest day, sunny and with virtually no chance of any rain.

Friday and Saturday are much the same, not quite as warm and with only a very small chance of any rain. The strategists won’t have much leeway to get things spectacularly wrong this Sunday.

2023 Italian GP: Ante Post Selections

The 2023 Italian GP is a good race in which to leave the ante post markets well alone. However, there are a couple I will take a chance on.

Verstappen is the 1.25 favourite for the 2023 Italian GP, Perez 12.00 for each way supporters, Hamilton 21.00, Alonso 29.00 and its 34.00 bar those five.

Perez will be happy to see a weather forecast without any rain in it and if he can string a good qualifying lap together, he should be in a good position to come second or get a podium at least.

I am happy to leave the outright market alone for now. Come Sunday we will know who, if any, will be taking grid penalties.

Williams Chance To Shine

The only bets I want to make now are on the Williams drivers. The 2023 Italian GP represents their best chance to shine.

Albon is on the crest of a wave and is suddenly on the big teams’ radar again. Sargeant is driving for his career, so both are well motivated.

Sargeant had two heavy crashes last weekend, but to be fair on him, it was a hydraulic failure which threw him into the wall on Sunday. If he can match his qualifying performance of last Sunday, and on this track he really should, then a points finish is very much on.

Albon To Aim High

Albon should be aiming higher than just more minor points. A podium is not impossible, but the odds are just 17.00 and that is high on risk and thin on value. A top 6 finish is more realistic.

He was seventh in Montreal, another low downforce track and he was eighth at Silverstone, another high speed track, and eighth last week on a track that didn’t suit and his race strategy was poor.

If he gets a break, and he is due one, especially here, then a top 6 is withing his reach.

2023 Italian GP Tip: 2 points Alex Albon to finish in the top 6 @ 3.50 with Hills, Betfair, Pokerstars

2023 Italian GP Tip: 1 point Logan Sargeant to finish in the points @ 4.33 with Livescorebet

There will be the usual updates before qualifying on Saturday and Sunday’s race.

-JamesPunt