2023 Italian GP Qualifying Update

James Punt is back in action this afternoon at Monza. He has already posted an in-depth, outright betting preview for this race, read it here. You can check out his 2023 Italian GP Qualifying preview below.

2023 Italian GP Qualifying Preview

It has been an interesting build up to qualifying on this ultra-low downforce track. After the three free practice sessions, there are a few surprises and there is the possibility of a bit of a mixed up grid without any wet weather to account for it.

In terms of who is in the hunt for pole position, it looks to be between Max Verstappen and the two Ferraris.

Carlos Sainz has been the fastest of the Ferrari drivers in all three sessions. Charles Leclerc has looked a bit untidy so far. One lap pace is his forte, so he may still pull it off, but so far, Sainz has been on it from the off.

Steady v Spectacular

Sainz is a steady performer, Leclerc more spectacular. Sainz has been more consistent in qualifying over the season, but when Leclerc is good, he is very good. Leclerc is 8-5 in their H2H qualifying but he hasn’t found the sweet spot so far.

Max Verstappen was just 0.086 slower than Sainz and he didn’t do a lap on new tyres at the end of the session. He must remain the favourite but Ferrari are in the game. This time last year Max was fastest in FP3 by 0.374 from Leclerc but come qualifying, it was Leclerc who was the fastest qualifier by 0.145.

The Ferrari is showing great straight line speed and is good in the chicanes over one lap. Their long run pace is well shy of Red Bull and they will struggle to beat Verstappen on Sunday, but they might just give the Tifosi something to cheer about today and dream about overnight.

Red Bull Race Advantage

Red Bull don’t care about qualifying, especially with what looks like about 0.3 seconds in hand on race pace. Last year Verstappen lost out to Leclerc and then had to take a grid penalty. He started in seventh place and still won the race. This year, the Red Bull has an even bigger advantage over the opposition and Verstappen isn’t going to lose any sleep if he isn’t on pole.

He will need to make sure he gets through what can be a tricky Q1 here with traffic always a problem as drivers try and position themselves to be able to get a tow from the car in front. It can get messy but the fast cars should be able to set a good banker time early on and avoid any silliness in the dying minutes.

The stewards have mandated that all drivers must do a lap of no slower than 1.41.0 otherwise they will pick up grid penalties. That should help, but we shall see.

Max Favourite

Verstappen remains the 1.57 favourite to be the fastest qualifier, and with seven of the last eight qualifying sessions going his way, those odds can be said to be generous.

Carlos Sainz is the 5.00 second favourite and Charles Leclerc 6.00. Ferrari beat Verstappen to pole last year and they are the sporting choice to do it again. But with which driver could they do it with?

Leclerc is the one lap specialist but he has been second best to Sainz so far. After Friday’s practice session, Leclerc said he was very happy with his long run pace but that he was going to have to find more one lap pace. He didn’t have a good balance and clearly, he was still lacking that in FP3. I’ll give my vote to Carlos Sainz but modest stakes only as Verstappen will be very hard to beat.

2023 Italian GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point Carlos Sainz to be the fastest qualifier @ 5.00 with Unibet

I mentioned in the preview that this track can throw up a surprise in the shape of a slow car going well in low downforce trim. That team this year looks to be Haas. Tenth and eleventh in FP2 and seventh and eighth in FP3.

Hulkenberg has made Q3 six times in 2023. Three of them were when wet weather was involved and the other three were all tenth places in the dry.

Magnussen has only made Q3 once, with a fourth place at Miami. They will fall back over the race distance but Hulkenberg might well make his way into Q3 for the seventh time. If he does, he should be the only Haas to do so and extend his 10-3 H2H record over his Danish Teammate.

2023 Italian GP Qualifying Tip: 2 points Nico Hulkenberg to out qualify Kevin Magnussen @ 1.73 with Ladbrokes, Unibet

-JamesPunt