2023 Kelso and Doncaster Saturday Preview

Bobhopeornohope ensured we didn’t go home empty handed last weekend. Churchill Lad was far too keen and he also seemed to get a fright from a horse falling in front of him. One More Fleurie looks a lost cause at this stage and neither of our Lingfield selections raised a gallop. Cheltenham is looming on the horizon but we still have some decent racing this Saturday. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2023 Kelso and Doncaster preview below.

1.15 Kelso – Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Class 3)

The ground is relatively quick for the time of year at Kelso. It is currently good to soft and with no rain forecast, that’s how it should stay. We kick off with a 21.5f handicap chase for the novices with only seven going to post. The 7/4 fav is Sholokjack for the Skeltons, a 12L winner over 20f last time at Lingfield (gd/sft). That came off 125 and he is now up 11lbs in what looks a tougher race. He is unexposed in handicaps but at the odds, I’ll be taking him on.

With a few firms paying 3 places, Half Shot is the e/w selection here at 16/1. Iain Jardine’s horses are in good form and this is a track he does well at. He has had 21 winners from 150 Kelso runners, with a further 50 Top 4 finishes. Jardine has enlisted the services of Gavin Sheehan for the ride. He has never ridden for the trainer before but his Kelso record is mustard (5/19 with 5 places).

Solid Season

Half Shot has had a fine season, winning his first two starts at Sedgefield (19.5f gd/sft) off 107 over fences then following up off 113 at Musselburgh over hurdles. Back over fences the last twice he shaped nicely off 119, both over 20.5f at Musselburgh.

He had Pay The Piper (and Gold De Bois) behind on New Year’s Day when 3rd then last month, he found just Notlongtilmay too good. He was placed on his only previous visit to Kelso when 22.5f maybe stretched him and the handicapper has dropped him back to 117. Hopefully he can sneak into the money over this furlong shorter trip at odds of 16/1.

2023 Kelso and Doncaster Saturday Tip: Half Shot e/w @ 16/1 (3 places) NB

1.30 Doncaster – Handicap Chase (Class 2)

Two horses that finished behind Half Shot recently, Pay The Piper and Gold De Bois, run in this open race. I would prefer the chances of Gold De Bois at around 10/1, mostly because of how he shaped on his last visit to Doncaster. He is only a pound higher than when beat just 1.75L by Malystic here in in January and the run probably came too soon just a week or so later at Musselburgh.

His shrewd owner targets these big pots and the fact Conor O’Farrell is there to ride looks significant. if there were three places on offer, I’d definitely be having a bet. However, he is just 10/1 now (16s earlier in week) and those odds are probably just about right. I’m happy to let him run without the weight of my money today, no bet.

2023 Kelso and Doncaster Saturday Tip: No Bet

1.50 Kelso – Morebattle Hurdle (Class 2)

Long time followers will be familiar with the top weight here, Colonel Mustard. He was a real money spinner for us as a novice but the days of him being priced up at 66s and 33s are long gone. I’m actually surprised to see him pitch up here given how well he ran in the County last season and it might just take a run for him to get his eye in over hurdles after a couple of chase runs. Kieren Buckley takes off a handy 3lbs but on this occasion, he is probably best watched.

Consistent

The McKennas send Wajaaha over from Ireland to try and plunder this big pot. Formerly trained by Charles Byrnes, this horse has a very consistent record over timber. Since he moved into handicap company a couple of seasons ago his form figures in that sphere read 5122.

He has also had two runs in Novice hurdles, winning one by 8L and finishing a head second to N’golo in the other (when conceding 5lbs). He also won a seller at Plumpton for Byrnes and on his first hurdle run for his new connections, he ran a massive race at odds of 50/1 when a solid 2nd at Naas last week.

Now, that effort admittedly came off a mark of 123 and he is rated 7lbs higher in the UK. However, on his peak hurdling form, that mark may not stop him from at least being competitive. He likes going left handed, he likes sharp tracks and he enjoys nice ground so there is plenty in his favour here. Perhaps this mark may be beyond him at this stage of his career but at odds of 33/1, he might just be able to sneak some place money.

2023 Kelso and Doncaster Saturday Tip: Wajaaha e/w @ 33/1 (5 places)

2.10 Newbury – Seniors’ Handicap Hurdle (Class 3)

It is good to see a race like this for the older hurdlers. I’m a big fan of the veterans’ chases and this is another excellent idea. The minimum age is 8yo and a field of 11 will go to post. The one that appeals here at decent odds is Umndeni. Trained by Philip Hobbs, Ben Jones rides and he is looking dangerously well handicapped off a mark of 121.

Just three runs back (in November 2021) this horse was a close second behind Calva D’Auge off 127 at Kempton (21f gd). He then didn’t get home over 24f at this track and that was the last we saw of him for a year and a half. The 9yo son of Balko made a low key return when well beat at Wincanton two weeks ago but surely that run was badly needed.

His best trip is anywhere between 19f to 21f and he likes nice, spring ground. The last time he ran off a rating of 121 (the same as today) he hosed up in a class 2 contest at Newton Abbott by 10L. All three of his hurdle wins have come when going left handed and Ben Jones won a Novice hurdle on him back in 2019 so he knows him well. If that comeback run has sharpened him up fitness wise, Umndeni is capable of running a big race here at odds of 20/1.

2023 Newbury Saturday Tip: Umndeni e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)

2.25 Kelso – Premier Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)

We backed Banjaxed at Navan two weeks ago in a maiden hurdle. Lorna Fowler’s son of Blue Bresil was hammered into 9/2 from 10/1 and he found just Ho My Lord too good. The Willie Mullins trained winner is in both the Ballymore (20/1) and Albert Bartlett (33/1) so that might turn out to be pretty useful form. The first three pulled well clear of the rest and given how Banjaxed travelled, he should be suited by a more strongly run race.

He was a shade keen throughout at Navan, the same as he was at Fairyhouse on his debut. His dam is a full sister to Listed winner/G3 placed Banjaxed Girl, the dam of G3 and former Kelso winner Le Milos and also to Listed winner Kid Commando, so he is bred for this type of race. This isn’t the strongest Grade 2 you’ll ever see and at odds of 20/1, Banjaxed looks worth chancing e/w. Of those at shorter odds, Colonel Harry should go close if he handles this better ground.

2023 Kelso and Doncaster Saturday Tip: Banjaxed e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) NAP

2.45 Newbury – Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier)

A very poor turnout for this valuable race with just 7 horses declared. Even with three places on offer from the majority of firms, this is a race to leave alone. Two old friends of the blog, Zanza and Sebastopol, have obvious claims but unfortunately, that is reflected in their odds. Espoir De Guye and The Big Bite are the only two at double figure odds but they are both hard to make a convincing case for. The former probably wants it much softer and the latter has shown nothing in two outings this season. No bet.

2023 Kelso and Doncaster Saturday Tip: No Bet

3.00 Kelso – Handicap Hurdle (Class 2)

In the hope that the return to faster ground sparks a revival, Enemy Coast Ahead is the bet here. This lad was formerly trained by Olly Murphy and he was picked up at the sales by his new connections for just 3k. He has had just two runs for his new trainer Katie Scott, both on heavy at this track. Unsurprisingly, the son of Malinas was well beat on both occasions but he has never shown any sort of form on that type of ground.

His three novice hurdle wins all came on good ground, twice at Southwell (16f) and then under a double penalty over 20f at Uttoxeter in August 2020. He had a year off after that last win and after a poor return at Ayr, he was off for another 253 days. His final run for Murphy came at Ayr in a class 2 handicap hurdle when he was beat just 1.5L off 124 by Bass Rock (21.5f gd/sft).

The McNeills sold him after that and this will be his first chance back on nice ground since. The assessor has dropped him to 116, 8lbs lower than he was at Ayr. An inexperienced 7lb claimer is now replaced by Jack Quinlan and his trainer has had two winners from her last three runners. This horse has form figures of 111162 on good and good to soft ground and if he can reproduce the form of his Ayr run behind Bass Rock, he can go close at odds of 20/1.

2023 Kelso and Doncaster Saturday Tip: Enemy Coast ahead e/w @ 20/1 (4 places)

3.15 Doncaster – Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (Class 2)

An extremely tricky renewal and another race that doesn’t appeal from a betting perspective. Only two are priced up long enough for the blog and it would take a big leap of faith to back either of them. Moroder might need a bit more help from the handicapper and Neville’s Cross has more letters than numbers in his form figures this season. If Windsor Avenue was on a going day he could win but he is the opposite of reliable. Keep the powder dry.

2023 Kelso and Doncaster Saturday Tip: No Bet

3.35 Kelso – Premier Chase (Listed)

Only four will probably run here with Zanza also entered at Newbury. Le Milos, who is a relative of our earlier selection Banjaxed, is 11/8 and he is looking for his fifth win from six starts. If I was having a bet it would be on Empire Steel as he enjoys it around here. However, it is win only and there will be far better opportunities for punting later on this month. A race to just watch, no bet.

2023 Kelso and Doncaster Saturday Tip: No bet

-DaveStevos