2023 Kempton and Lingfield Saturday Tips – DS
2023 Kempton and Lingfield Saturday Preview
We landed a nice on course winner with 20/1 shot Dr Val at Punchestown in midweek. Make sure to follow us on Twitter to make sure you don’t miss out on any on course selections. We landed 2 places from our 4 bets last weekend, hopefully we can keep the good work up today. Check out Dave Stevos’ 2023 Kempton and Lingfield (and Newcastle) Saturday preview below.
1.30 Lingfield – Hever Sprint Stakes (Listed)
For the first time in a long time, we are back on the flat today. This Listed sprint is an interesting little race. A low draw is quite important over this distance at Lingfield, especially for front runners. Look Out Louis is certainly one that likes to press on with things and he is drawn to attack in stall 3. He is trained by in-form Julie Camacho and he has really matured into a very useful sprinter in the last couple of years.
When with Tim Easterby, a win off 80 was his best result back in May, 2019. He was beat off 74 on his last run for that yard over a year later and he was rated 73 when Camacho got him. He was beat off that rating on his stable debut, but then his form took off. Look Out Louis won next time at Newcastle (6f), then he went on a run producing form figures of 21312321301010, ending up on a mark of 101.
First Run Back
He has never run at Lingfield but he handles Newcastle well so hopefully he takes to the surface. This is his first run of the season but that isn’t a worry as he has an excellent record fresh. He’s 3lbs better off with Alligator Alley than when beating him 2.75L two runs ago at Haydock yet the O’Meara horse is 4/1 and Look Out Louis is 12/1. Two of Camacho’s last three runners won, hopefully this fella can continue her excellent form from a decent draw in stall 3.
2023 Kempton and Lingfield Saturday Tip: Look Out Louis e/w @ 12/1
1.50 Kempton – Adonis Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2)
Eight remain in the running for this year’s Adonis. Hopefully they all run and if they do, The Churchill Lad might represent a bit of e/w value. Rebecca Menzies trains this son of Churchill and while a rating of 118 leaves him with a bit to find with three of the top four in the betting, I think this horse has a good bit more improvement to come.
The key to this horse is getting him to settle. He has been learning on the job and when he was 4th in a G2 at Chepstow in December, he was far too keen on soft ground. Nathan Moscrop was fighting him the whole way round and those exertions told in the last couple of furlongs. He was also very keen for his two hurdle wins, but his class got him through.
Listed Form
Last time in a Listed contest at Musselburgh, The Churchill Lad was still a little bit keen but he settled better than he had done in all of his previous runs over timber. He got a bit outpaced between the last two hurdles in that race but after the last Moscrop gave him the office and he stayed on really well for 2nd behind Afadil.
If Moscrop can get him to race evenly today, he can uphold form with Spartan Army, who he finished well ahead of at Chepstow, and I can also see him getting a lot closer to Perseus Way. Nusret and Scriptwriter are the most likely winners on paper but with three places on offer, The Churchill Lad is well worth chancing e/w at 50/1.
2023 Kempton and Lingfield Saturday Tip: The Churchill Lad e/w @ 50/1 nb
2.05 Lingfield – Winter Derby Stakes (Group 3)
We backed Lord North in the Eclipse at silly odds on his last run and we were unlucky not to collect. He was only a length off Vadeni, the subsequent Arc runner up, and less than half a length behind Mishriff and Native Trail. If he is fully fit on his return, a repeat of that form would see him win this doing handstands. However, he was beat in it last year at 6/5 and connections are probably using it as a stepping stone towards the G1 he dead heated in at Meydan last March.
Forest Of Dean is a former C&D winner and that came in this race two years ago. Now a 7yo, he’ll have a definite fitness edge over his stablemate. He lacked a recent run when well beaten in his repeat bid in 2022 but this time he has a run (and win) under his belt. Unlike his stable companion, this is probably his target and at the prices, I’d prefer him of the three Gosden horses.
King Could Suprise
Of those at bigger odds, maybe King of The South can sneak a place. William Knight trains and the enigmatic Jamie Spencer rides. There is a distinct lack of early pace in this race and this horse has made all in the past. Spencer is better known for his hold up rides but he is an underrated front running jockey and King Of The South could be dangerous if given an easy lead.
He ran well in the trial for this race behind Fancy Man last season and unlike some of his rivals here, he’ll be match fit having been on the go for most of the Winter. He does have a bit to find to turn Newcastle form around with Forest Of Dean and Harrovian but this track should suit him better. Not one for maximum stakes, but if King Of The South is on a going day and one or two of the market leaders falter, he could run into a place at odds of 20/1.
2023 Kempton and Lingfield Saturday Tip: King Of The South e/w @ 20/1
2.25 Kempton – Pendil Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Just the five runners and a race it is hard to get overly excited about. Boothill is the best treated in it and even conceding 5lbs might not be enough to stop him. Datsalrightgino got to within 0.75L of the fav at Newton Abbott and he is 2lbs better off here. He looks the biggest danger but he is unproven at this level and Boothill’s more recent form is stronger.
Solo is solid and consistent but he’ll need the wind op to eke out more improvement to win this. Tweed Skirt gets weight from the boys but with a rating of 136, she also needs to find plenty to beat the market leader. The same sentiment applies to Jay Jay Reilly and this is a race to leave alone. No Bet.
2023 Kempton and Lingfield Saturday Tip: No Bet
3.00 Kempton – Coral Trophy Handicap Chase (Premier)
Cap Du Nord heads the market for this valuable 24f handicap chase. He landed this prize last year off 127 and he won off that mark last time out, taking the Swinley at Ascot by 7 lengths. The 10yo has been some horse for connections and the booking of up and coming Cian Quirke, who claims a very handy 5lbs, means he is effectively only 3lbs higher today. The worry is that the race might come to soon as it is just a week since that superb Ascot win.
Shade Overpriced
One horse that might just be a shade overpriced is Bobhopeornohope. He landed a 24f handicap at his beloved Ludlow last time out off 139 and he got 3lbs for that. It was only his second run of the season and it looks like Bailey may have had this race in mind ever since. This will be the 8yo son of Westerner’s first try in a handicap of this class and it looks the perfect track for him.
All of Bobhopeornohope’s three chase wins (and one of his two hurdle wins) have come going right handed. He is at his best on sharp, flat right handed tracks and that is reflected in his form figures. Over 3 miles his form figures on tracks with that description read 121 and at all distances they read 13121. Bailey has freshened him up with a 67 day break and he’ll think he’s running loose carrying just 10st 9lbs (carried 12 stone first two runs this season). It’s the biggest pot he’s ever competed for so surely he’ll be trying and at odds of 18/1, he is the e/w selection.
2023 Kempton and Lingfield Saturday Tip: Bobhopeornohope e/w @ 18/1 (4 places) NAP
3.25 Newcastle – Eider Handicap Chase (Class 2)
Last year, I fancied One More Fleurie to run big in the Scottish National off 132. He picked up an injury that day and was pulled up lame and his first two runs of this campaign were dreadful. However, at Doncaster in December he showed some positive signs off 125, setting the fractions before getting outpaced over 24f. I fully expected him to spit the dummy out once headed, but Charlie Todd kept at him and he ran on pretty well to the line, beat just 6.5L for the win and 2L for a place.
Well Handicapped
His last run came in a match at Catterick 12 days ago and he was picked off before the final fence by Tango Boy. I wouldn’t hold that run against him though and I’d imagine it was a sharpener ahead of a tilt at this much bigger prize. There is no doubt he is extremely well handicapped if he is even 90% at his best. His last win at Ayr (24f gd) was by 6.5L off 128 and that was the run that convinced me to put him up for the Scottish National last season.
The handicapper left his mark alone after his last run so he is 4lbs lower than he was when hacking up at Ayr. The ground should be perfect for him and his trainer has had a couple of winners on the flat in the last fortnight. It could just be that the 9yo has fallen out of love with the game but there was enough encouragement to take from his run at Doncaster to suggest he still fancies it. This trip could really suit the son of Mustameet and if he is on a going day, he could outrun his odds of 40/1.
2023 Kempton and Lingfield Saturday Tip: One More Fleurie e/w @ 40/1 (5 places)
3.40 Kempton – Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
This Grade 2 for the Novices’ closes the show on ITV on Saturday. Unfortunately, only seven run so it makes limited appeal from a betting perspective. Irish recruit Hansard has won his last three on the bounce, a bumper and two novice hurdles. The Moores will be hoping his upward trajectory continues.
Rubaud is next best in the betting for Nicholls and Cobden. He faced a tough task in the Betfair Hurdle last time and he was beat 7L in a Novice here previously on soft. Both his good ground Novice Hurdle wins resulted in wins at Taunton and he should run better than last time back in more calmer waters.
Ukantango should also appreciate this nice ground after pulling up on soft last time. Milton Harris runs two and it is interesting that Mitch Bastyan is on Postmark rather than Mullenbeg, as you’d imagine he had the pick. The good ground will suit Bastyan’s mount and he might run better than his odds suggest. However, this is another race I’m more than happy to leave alone. No bet.
