2023 Masters Darts Finals Night Preview and Tips

Chris Dobey finally ended James Punt’s search for a winner at nice odds earlier. Unfortunately, both total legs bets missed out by one leg. Surely we are due a change of luck tonight! Check out James’ 2023 Masters Darts Finals Night preview and tips below.

Chris Dobey vs. Michael Smith

Dobey has played and lost in three previous TV semi-finals. He went down 0-4 to MVG in the 2019 Grand Prix, lost 8-11 to Gerwyn Price in the 2019 Players Championship finals and 9-11 to Ross Smith in last year’s European Championship.

He is getting closer but Dobey is not a prolific title winner. Hollywood has won two pro tour titles in 8 years but never made a major final. He did reach three quarter finals in 2022, losing two, but he is getting more used to big matches. He just needs to start winning them. Dobey has won seven of his last ten matches and his tournament average is 95.3.

Smith Can’t Stop Winning

Michael Smith should be a good case study for Dobey. Smith didn’t have so many problems with semi-finals, it was finals he couldn’t win, but once he did, the game became easier. Since he won the Grand Slam final, Smith has played 16 matches and won 14.

He won his quarter final against Danny Noppert 10-5, despite Noppert averaging over 100 for most of the match. Danny missed a chance to go 4-1 up, Smith nicked the leg to go 3-2 and then he found another couple of gears. His 180 hitting was good, giving him plenty of chances, and with a check out rate of 50%, he was taking them. Big maximum hitting and strong on the doubles, that is hard to beat.

Dobey Needs A-Game

Needless to say that Dobey will have to find his very best form if he is to make his first final on TV. Smith’s tournament average is 101 and he has averaged over 95 in eight of his last ten, so he doesn’t do many duff matches. Their H2H record is 5-2 to Smith. Their only match on TV was in last year’s UK Open, which Smith won 10-7. Smith averaged 99.9 and Dobey 95.2 and something similar would be no surprise. Smith is the 1.36 favourite with Dobey available at 3.50.

Of the last ten semi-finals here, 11-10 and 11-7 has been the winning score in 60% of the matches.

2023 Masters Darts Finals Night Tip: 0.5 point Michael Smith to win 11-7 @ 8.00 with Unibet, Skybet

Peter Wright vs. Rob Cross

There were no signs of any illness for Wright this afternoon. He averaged 101.8 in a 10-6 win over Jonny Clayton. The Ferret suddenly lost his doubling radar halfway through the match and Wright just powered past him.

That is back-to-back 101 averages for Snakebite, and he has won eight of his last ten matches. He has also won eight out of his last ten matches in this event and played three semi-finals and won one. His cumulative leg score in those semi-finals is 30-29, so all close matches.

Strange Match

Rob Cross beat Michael van Gerwen 10-7 in a strange match. Cross was 4-1 up at the first break, 6-4 at the second and then went 9-5. MVG was there for the taking but Cross just dried up on the trebles, lost two legs in a row, to cost us another bet.

It was a 96 average for Cross in the end, perfectly respectable but nothing like what he did against Gary Anderson. That makes his tournament average 104 and he has won seven of his last ten matches.

Their H2H record is 15-13 to Cross, 7-5 to Cross on TV. They met in the quarter final of the Bahrain Masters a few weeks ago, Cross winning 6-5 despite averaging just 88. Their stats are very similar. Wright is a slightly heavier scorer but there is not much between them.

Alarm Bells

I was a bit alarmed by Cross when he had MVG there for the kill. Suddenly missing trebles and shaking his head. It looked like MVG could turn things around and Cross was ready to roll over. He has a poor record against MVG so perhaps that was the reason.

They have played just one best of 20 leg match, a World Series semi-final back in 2018, which Cross won 11-8. They have played four best of 19 leg matches and Wright won all of those, three of them by four or more legs.

Wright The Fav

Peter Wright is the 1.80 favourite with Cross at 2.15. It is too hard to call for me. Wright is a little more consistent and has a good record here. Cross’ late match wobble against MVG is something that he has been doing for a while and why he isn’t winning as many titles as his standard of play should allow him to. It looks like it should be a close match between two experienced and in-form players. Of Wright’s three semi-finals here two have gone over 18.5 legs and another would be no surprise.

2023 Masters Darts Finals Night Tip: 1 point over 18.5 legs @ 1.91 with Ladbrokes, Boylesports

That is all from me for this week. There will be a Premier League preview mid-week, after the final line up is revealed tomorrow.

Fingers crossed for Michael Smith this evening. He may yet add a little respectability to a disappointing tournament for me.

-JamesPunt