2023 Masters Darts Sunday Preview and Tips – JP
2023 Masters Darts Sunday Preview and Tips
Nothing went right for us in Milton Keynes last night. The Aubergenius pulled off the shock vs Price and De Sousa somehow won seven legs vs MVG. James has been licking his wounds and he is determined to bounce back today. Check out his 2023 Masters Darts Sunday match previews and tips below.
Dirk van Duijvenbode vs. Chris Dobey
A first meeting on TV for two players chasing their first TV title, and a possible place in the Premier League. I doubt Dobey would get in, but Dirk would sell tickets and that is name of the game. Both will be aware that the winning post is coming into view, and both have known to get tight at the business end of tournaments.
Overall, their H2H record is 5-3 to Dobey and it was 2-2 in 2022. Dirk has now won seven of his last ten matches, Dobey six.
Dirk is the heavier scorer, hits more 180s and has a better checkout rate. He is the 1.67 favourite with Dobey the 2.30 outsider. The H2H stats suggest that Dobey has a better chance than the odds suggest. Dirk beat his nemesis, Gerwyn Price, 10-8 last night. The Welshman was said to be ill and had considered pulling out and he certainly didn’t play with any fire in his belly.
Close Match
Dobey won a close match with Luke Humphries, taking advantage of Cool Hand’s poor doubling.
I would have to give Dobey a reasonable chance of winning this. Overall, Dirk is the better player, but Dobey has a good enough game to beat anyone, and he has beaten Van Duijvenbode more times than Dirk has beaten him. There is no mental block there. The way both have played so far it is hard to see either running away with it. The trend over the last five years is for fairly wide margins of victory at this stage (65% below 17 legs) but this has the feel of a close one.
2023 Masters Darts Sunday Tips: 1 point Chris Dobey to win @ 2.30 with Ladbrokes
2023 Masters Darts Sunday Tips: 1 point over 16.5 legs @ 1.80 generally available
Michael Smith vs. Danny Noppert
Smith has lost just one of his last fourteen matches and he kicked off his tournament last night with a workmanlike 10-7 win over Ross Smith. The World Champion averaged 98.7 in that match and something similar should be enough.
Danny Noppert showed good fighting spirit to come from 2-6 down to win 10-9 against Bunting. He averaged 95.6 and was 59% on his doubles, which was what won him the match. Bunting was by far the better player, but Noppert hung in and took his chances when they came.
His scoring is not a mile off that of Smith and he beat him to win the UK Open last year. That was a final Smith really should have won, but he imploded, as was his way before he finally landed the Grand Slam and has not looked back since. He is starting to look a bit frazzled, saying he got distracted too easily last night and he should have put Ross Smith to bed with more ease than he did.
H2H Close
Their H2H record is 5-5, 3-1 to Noppert in 2022 and their only televised match was in that UK Open final which Noppert won 11-10. He hasn’t really kicked on since then in terms of winning titles, but he does have plenty of good runs and he has become a very accomplished, consistent player. He does have the odd off day, but he is in good form with seven wins from his last ten.
Smith is the 1.40 favourite, Noppert 3.20. Given their H2H record, Noppert looks the better value, but Smith is a winning machine these days and hard to oppose with hard cash. We are on him to win the tournament and I am in no rush to back him against a dangerous opponent. No bet.
2023 Masters Darts Sunday Tips: No Bet
Peter Wright vs. Jonny Clayton
Snakebite averaged 101.5 in a 10-8 win over Dave Chisnall last night. He complained about feeling ill on stage and is suffering with a head cold. Jonny Clayton beat a very poor James Wade 10-3 and he did what he does, keep his head down and get the job done, not thinking about how his opponent is playing.
The Ferret has won seven of his last ten matches and looks to be hitting good form just in time for the start of his beloved Premier League. He also likes this event, winning eight of his last nine matches. He is not quite at the top of his game, but he is getting closer.
Their H2H record is 14-8 to Wright but on TV, 7-5 to Clayton. They met in the semi-final here in 2021 and Clayton edged that 11-10 on the way to winning the title and starting what became The Year of the Ferret.
Wright Wellbeing Key
How well Wright is feeling is important and unknown. It could be that a couple of paracetamol and a good night’s sleep will have done the trick and whatever was wrong with him last night didn’t stop him averaging over the ton.
They met no less than nine times in 2022 and Wright won five, Clayton four and it was 4-1 to Clayton on TV (all Premier League matches). When Wright did win, he tended to win very easily.
Wright is the 1.80 favourite with Clayton 2.13. I can’t argue with those odds. The temptation is to go with Clayton to win a close match, but Wright is capable of inflicting heavy defeats on Clayton and this is too much of a minefield for me. No bet.
2023 Masters Darts Sunday Tips: No Bet
Michael van Gerwen vs. Rob Cross
Rob Cross has found himself having to frantically backpedal about his comments about The Masters being a stupid tournament. He missed out on setting a new tournament record high average yesterday with a 112.3 in his 10-6 win over Gary Anderson. We backed Anderson and normally if you back a player who averages 111.1 you get paid out, but not this time. We just backed a player who set the highest losing average in the tournament’s history.
If Cross keeps that sort of form up, he might even get an invite to the Premier League, which he says he doesn’t care about either. To be fair, Cross has been knocking in big averages for a while now. He had a 110.9 in October and a 113 in November so yesterday’s performance was not a flash in the pan. He hasn’t converted this heavy scoring into many titles but he did win two players championship events in the second half of last year.
10 Titles in 2022
MVG has not had the same problem with winning titles, just not the one he wanted, the World Championship. He won 10 titles in 2022 including three majors and the Premier League. He has won eight of his last ten matches and beat Cross 11-6 in the final of the Players Championship finals last November before losing the final of the World Championship.
Their H2H record is 24-5 to MVG and 16-3 on TV. Cross has beaten MVG in some big matches, like the 2018 World Championship semi-final and the 2021 European Championship finals, but usually it is MVG who triumphs. They have played three best of 11 leg matches with MVG winning all three 10-4, 10-6 and 10-4.
MVG missed a dart to beat De Sousa 10-6 and land our bet yesterday. He was in total control of the match, averaging 104.7, but De Sousa was unusually brilliant on the doubles.
MVG A Hot Fav
Van Gerwen is the 1.36 favourite and Cross 3.20. The odds on someone who hit 112 yesterday are rarely as high as 3.20, but that H2H record makes the difference, and MVG was hardly tawdry with a 104 average himself.
Can Cross back it up, or will The Masters return to being a stupid tournament and he didn’t want to play in the Premier League anyway?
MVG makes no appeal at the odds and I can’t back Cross given his record against Van Gerwen. I will take a chance that one of them will dominate, more likely MVG. Of the last 20 quarter finals here, 25% were won 10-6 and 65% under 17 legs.
