2023 Mexican GP Outright Betting Preview

After a strange US GP in Texas last weekend, the Formula 1 roadshow heads south of the border for the 2023 Mexican GP.

This is one of the outlier tracks on the calendar as it is held at altitude, some 2240 meters above sea level. This is significant as the resulting thin air has a major effect on aerodynamics.

Simply put, even a brick travels through the air faster at altitude. Cars with inefficient, draggy characteristics get a free pass this weekend. They will suddenly find themselves feeling like a Red Bull while Red Bull will not notice so much of a difference.

Thin Air

Yes, the Red Bull will go faster at altitude, but it will not gain as much speed compared to the less sophisticated cars. The thin air also makes the DRS weak, weak for everyone, but again, Red Bull will lose relatively more as they have the most efficient DRS under ‘normal’ conditions. The thin air is enough to give some people altitude sickness, but not the athletes in the cars.

Of course, the internal combustion engines in the cars need air and the relative lack of oxygen means that they are not producing as much power as usual. That is the same for everyone but in the past, some power units have performed better than others.

Honda Power Advantage?

The Honda power units were underpowered compared to the Mercedes and Ferrari units in previous years, but they started outperforming their rivals in Mexico City in 2021, powering home three of the top 4 cars. This was put down to their turbo unit being more effective at altitude.

So Red Bull will lose this weekend? Perhaps, but they have won four of the last five races here and won by big margins, so don’t bet the house on it. However, they may find themselves coming under more pressure than in the past. Having the Honda power units has helped them in the last couple of years and they have had back to back 1-3 finishes.

The 2023 Mexican GP Track

Other than the fact that this track is at altitude, another important feature is that it is very hard on brakes.

Normally an F1 car loses a lot of speed simply by the driver taking their foot off the throttle. The car’s drag has a braking effect, but with the thin air, that braking effect is less and the actual brakes have to do more work.

There are two very big braking events on the lap. The first is at the endo of the very long starting straight and another at the end of the other long straight that follows after the first set of sharp corners at the end of the start straight.

There is not a lot in the way of fast corners here but there are plenty of slow ones and it is track marked by straights and braking events. If you have instability under braking, this track will punish it and any problem cooling the brakes is likely to be terminal.

Will the track favour any team in particular?

In a nutshell, it should be favourable for any cars that are not bad, but suffer from poor straight line speed. Mercedes immediately springs to mind.

They now have a good car, but it is still not the class of the field in terms of performance on the straights. McLaren can be a bit draggy, though they have improved, but their problem is a relative lack of pace in slower corners. This track will take the edge off their performance, more so than Texas.

Driver Records

This has been a strong track for Max Verstappen, even before Red Bull switched to Honda power and he has won four of the last five races here, with his first win back in 2017.

Lewis Hamilton has two wins and has been runner up to Verstappen in the last two races here, splitting the two Red Bulls. Ferrari have finished 5th & 6th with Leclerc and Sainz for the last two years.

Outside of Verstappen and Hamilton, nobody has a standout record. Bottas did OK in a Mercedes and the Mercedes powered Williams with three podiums. Hulkenberg has been a steady performer when in better cars than the Haas, but that is about it.

2023 Mexican GP: Weather Forecast

A spell of showery weather should have passed by the time the cars take to the track on Friday. There is a small chance of spotty showers on Friday morning but after that the weather will be pleasant, quite sunny with temperatures in the mid 20’s.

Team-by-Team

Red Bull

Running down the season. No longer chasing performance gains and hoping that Perez can fall over the line ahead of Hamilton.

Red Bull have strong record here and Max remains a strong favourite to win. Perez has back to back podiums in Mexico but this may not be a great place for him to race right now. He is clearly struggling for form, for confidence and indeed his sanity. Carrying the weight of a nation on your shoulders is not going to make things any easier.

Verstappen was struggling with a brake issue last weekend. Should that re-occur in Mexico City, he is toast. You need the brakes to be spot on here. He should be OK as the team can fit new brakes between races.

Mercedes

Twenty two points ahead of Ferrari and four races to go. Mercedes have made a proper step with their new floor. It works and it is a very good platform on which to build on.

It was interesting that despite having Hamilton disqualified and Russell underperforming in Texas, they took it on the chin. No moaning. They left that to the tin foil hat branch of their fan club.

The team left the USA with a spring in its step. They know they have found the right path to go down. True competitiveness is now on the horizon.

This track, and next weekend’s Interlagos circuit are going to be very good ones for them. That should put them out of reach from Ferrari and nail down second place in the Constructors’ Championship.

It also gives Hamilton an outside chance of second place in the Drivers’ Championship, not that he will be that interested.

Ferrari

Leclerc was also disqualified from the USGP but it was a two edged sword for them. It cost Mercedes a podium and promoted Sainz to third, while Leclerc only lost points for his 6th place finish. No moaning from Ferrari either.

Both teams failed the post-race checks and it was a slam dunk DQ. They were just unlucky to be selected for the random check at the end of the race. By all accounts half the field would have failed.

It was just a consequence of racing on a very bumpy track and only having one practice session to establish their set up. That set up was locked in from Friday afternoon. The skid blocks looked OK at that point so nobody raised the ride heights as a precaution. It was just one of those things.

Losing Ground

Ferrari have lost ground to both McLaren and Mercedes and are between a rock and hard place. Four races to go is a bit late to be bring big developments to the car and the best they are going to do is finish third.

They have an eighty point lead over McLaren and they should be safe enough in third. This track has been reasonably good for them in the past but back to back 5th and 6th place finishes here could become back-to-back-to-back at the end of this weekend.

Their race strategy for Leclerc on Sunday was bizarre and it cost him places. Leclerc is reported to be suffering from an infected wisdom tooth which can’t be making his life any easier, but he wasn’t happy with the strategy nor being told to let his teammate past last Sunday.

McLaren

A DNF for Piastri in Texas looks to have cost McLaren their outside chance of catching Ferrari. He was struggling all weekend and then an unfortunate bump with Ocon forced him to retire.

Norris ended up being promoted to second place, to make it four consecutive podiums, and six from his last nine races. Piastri is on another learning curve this weekend and this is a tricky track to get used to.

Norris has had three visits and while he only has a 10th and 9th place, he knows what to expect. The track lay out is about as far from ideal as you could get for McLaren. No fast corners and plenty of slow ones, it plays to their relative weakness.

I say relative, because they have improved their slow corner performance, but they know it is not where they are going to be very competitive. Norris may have to forego the champagne this weekend.

Aston Martin

It is hard to assess Aston Martin. They have fallen backwards markedly for some time now. From second best in the first half of the season to 5th or 6th best in running in recent races. Their big, and late, upgrade arrived last week and it was so good that Alonso had it taken off his car and reverted to his Qatar spec car and a pit lane start on Sunday.

Lance Stroll stuck with the upgrade but still changed the setup of his car and also started form the pitlane. Alonso went well until he had to retire with floor damage while Stroll finished 9th. He got promoted to 7th thanks to the post race disqualifications.

Upgrade Questions

So where does that leave them and the upgrade? Alonso said it made the car better, which was odd, as he was in the old set up on Sunday. Alonso used the new upgrade in the sprint race and dropped a place.

Stroll said it made the car better, and said it rather grumpily, but we don’t really know what sort of changes were made to the car before the race. What is wasn’t, was a smooth process. It was more Ferrari than Mercedes. I remain unconvinced that they really know what is going on.

Alonso’s switch from Saturday to Sunday gave the engineers plenty of good old back to back comparisons. They should be able to draw some conclusions from that. That conclusion may be that the Qatar spec was faster.

Team principle Mike Krack said “Right now we only have the lap times and the results, so we still have to analyse, but we don’t think the new update package is bad.” Not exactly a ringing endorsement and I remain on a watching brief as far as Aston Martin are concerned.

Alpine

Performed OK in Texas. They took advantage of Aston Martin’s woes in the sprint race and picked up some more points in the race, but not because they were particularly quick.

Alpine exist in their own little bubble. Way off the top 4, sometimes better than Aston Martin, but ahead of the bottom four. How they go this weekend is the usual mystery.

If Aston Martin struggle they score points, if Aston Martin go better, they may not. Gasly had a very solid weekend in Texas, very consistent across all the sessions, so he could be a points scorer if the car is up to it.

Williams

Got a largely undeserved double points finish in Texas thanks to the disqualifications and three DNF’S. Their car is quite slippy in a straight line so the track should be OK for them, but they are likely to need others to have problems if they are to score.

Alfa Romeo

Reverted to lower midfield obscurity in Texas after a double points finish in Qatar. Like Alpine, Alfa Romeo are unpredictable, but in general, Alfa Romeo are slower and less likely to score any points. Bottas did manage one point here last year, so maybe they can, but it is hard to get excited about their prospects.

Haas

Their big upgrade introduced last week was not a success. Once the dust had settled it was a case of saying that it was a bit better pace wise, but it didn’t address their big problem of tyre deg. That requires a new suspension design for next year and they require Ferrari to do that for them.

Even with the retirements and DNFs they still failed to score a point in Texas and any points seem very unlikely here.

Alpha Tauri

Tsunoda was another beneficiary of other’s woes last weekend but I liked that the team were switched on enough to also get Tsunoda into a position to score the fastest lap. His qualifying performances are putting him in better places to score points. Tsunoda had failed to finish here in his two previous starts. Ricciardo’s comeback weekend was not a memorable one.

2023 Mexican GP: Summary

A good car will still be a good car and Max Verstappen will remain the man to beat. We have to remember that Red Bull are in cruise mode now. Their only objective is to finish the season with the Drivers’ Championship, tick, the Constructors’ Championship, tick, and a 1-2 finish in the Drivers’ Championship, not yet ticked.

They are not wasting resources putting performance on to this car and they have the luxury of having shifted everything into next year’s program.

Teams like McLaren, Mercedes, Aston Martin are still trying to refine and, in some cases, make major upgrades very late in the season. They are trying to maximise prizemoney by improving their constructors’ league table position.

These teams should be closing the gap to Red Bull. They are no longer chasing a moving target, but the gap remains sizeable.

Hamilton Closing The Gap?

Much was made of how close Hamilton got to beating Verstappen in Texas last week. Yes, it was fairly close, but we have to put things into perspective.

Firstly Verstappen had to start the race from sixth after losing his best qualifying time for track limits. That was a very small mistake which cost him six places. He then raced with a brake problem which made things tricky for him. And he still won.

Had he started on pole and had no brake problem he would still would have won, just by a more comfortable margin.

However that is not to say Mercedes have not made big improvements to their pace, they are closer. The same goes for McLaren.

Alonso Not Happy

Aston Martin tried a big upgrade last weekend and it looked a bit like a Tory by-election result. Alonso threw a hissy fit, they had to start from the pit lane, scored six points & had one DNF, but it was spun as a triumph. Two faster cars retired from the race and two top six finishers were disqualified. Perspective is required.

Yes, Stroll showed good race pace in his final stint but do they look like a team with a firm grip on things? Not in my book. When Alonso gets grumpy you things are bad, and as for Stroll, he has looked terminally grumpy for several races now.

The team most likely to get closest to Verstappen this weekend again looks like Mercedes. We got out Hamilton podium bet home last weekend but Russell fluffed his lines with a very poor weekend.

Hamilton is a much better driver when he has a competitive car and he looks to have one now. He knows they are not at Red Bull’s level yet but he can be best of the rest and should Max have a problem, say with his brakes again, a win is not an outlandish suggestion.

2023 Mexican GP: Ante Post Selections

This one looks like it could be an ante post blank. Last weekend we got 3.80 for Hamilton to get a podium. This weekend, he is best priced at 1.80 and it is safe to say that the good ship value has sailed on that one.

George Russell can still be backed at 3.75 to get a podium which makes more appeal. It would be kind to say that he was rubbish in Texas last weekend. His performance was well below par and he was disappointed with himself. Could he find redemption this weekend?

Competitive Mercedes

The Merecedes looks likely to be competitive this weekend. Its weakness on the straights will not be the handicap it usually is and they do look to have made another big improvement to the car with the new floor.

Last year the result was Verstappen first from Hamilton in second. Perez was third and Russell fourth. This year I can see something similar, with the exception of Perez.

His confidence has collapsed, the huge crowd expect him to compete for the win, which he can’t do, and every weekend it all goes wrong in qualifying and he is struggling to make Q3. He makes up some ground in the race but no longer is he threatening the podium.

Tyre Strategy

Russell had qualified second here last year, but lost out to Hamilton in the first corner. Mercedes had gone for a medium – hard tyre strategy but that turned out to be the wrong one. Russell wanted a medium – soft and he might have been right.

He ended up well adrift, as was Hamilton to Verstappen. Russell eventually made a late stop for the soft compound, to set the fastest lap. A chance missed? That might be pushing it, but Mercedes backed the wrong horse strategy wise.

Other podium contenders this weekend? We can’t just write off McLaren but the track doesn’t look ideal. Ferrari are still stuck with a fast qualifier but a slower racer. Aston Martin have not had a podium since the Netherlands and unless the upgrade turns out to be suddenly magnificent, looks unlikely to do so now.

A podium for Russell is not a bad call. He has only had one this season, which is a caution, but he now has a car better able to compete and on a track which should advance his chances. He is worth a modest bet.

2023 Mexican GP Tip: 1 point George Russell to finish on the podium @ 3.75 with Skybet, Livescorebet

The battle for points looks very dependent on how Aston Martin perform. This is a race to hold fire and learn from the practice sessions.

There will be an update for qualifying on Saturday and the race on Sunday. Hopefully an hour before qualifying and a couple of hours before the race on Sunday. It is a busy weekend with the European Championship darts running alongside the GP, but I’ll manage it.

-JamesPunt