2023 Mexico GP Qualifying Preview and Tips – JP
2023 Mexico GP Qualifying Preview
Now, it’s time for James Punt’s 2023 Mexico GP Qualifying preview. If you haven’t already read his outright betting preview, you can check that out here.
2023 Mexico GP Qualifying Update
Free practice is over and the first session that counts lies ahead. Since F1 returned to Mexico in 2015 we have had a different driver on pole for each race. Will that trend continue? I don’t think so.
Max Verstappen looks likely to buck the trend. He has been fastest in every session so far and that usually means one thing, he’ll be faster in this one too.
The time sheets show that he was just 0.070 faster than Williams’ Alex Albon, but that may not tell us the whole story. Max didn’t have the clearest of flying laps, hitting a lot of traffic, and that will have knocked a tenth or two off his time.
Blocked Ferraris
The two Ferraris were both badly blocked on their flying laps and you can ignore the fact that they ended the session in 13th and 15th place. They will be closer in qualifying but they just look to be lacking truly competitive pace.
Alex Albon was second fastest in FP1 and FP3. FP2 saw him down in 14th but it looks clear that the Williams is well suited to the unique challenge that is posed by the Mexico City circuit. Logan Sargeant was 11th fastest in FP3 and that stamps the car’s form.
This track, certainly in the heat of the FP3 session, is hard on the tyres. By the time the drivers are into the third sector, the tyres are giving up their best grip and those that hold on to the grip right to the end of lap are the ones near the top of the time sheets.
Sector Three Key For Max
Verstappen was the fastest in sector three by 0.072 ahead of Albon. That is where he made the difference. Yuki Tsunoda was actually second fastest in S3 with a 20.169, Perez fourth, Piastri fifth and Norris sixth.
The track will be cooler for qualifying so we might see things shift a bit.
It is very hard to get away from Verstappen. I will be surprised if he isn’t the fastest qualifier. He is the 1.45 favourite which is a touch generous. Is there a good e/w punt that might land acceptable place only odds?
The problem is that we are only getting one place at 1/3 the odds, so we need a decent price. Lando Norris is the 13.00 second favourite, Perez the 15.00 second favourite, Hamilton the 17.00 third favourite (why, I don’t know), Russell 19.00, Leclerc 19.00, Alex Albon 21.00 Sainz 26.00, and Piastri 29.00.
Norris In Form
Norris has qualified second in three of the last nine races. His place odds are effectively 3.00 and just a little short, but fair enough. He is in great form and I think we can forget about all this ‘we are too slow in slow corners’ nonsense. The car is quick, end of.
He was second fastest in FP2 but that was a funny session with a bit of drizzle at the start and end of the session mixing things up.
George Russell was qualified second in two of the last four races and he is not out of it. He looks quicker than Hamilton and he qualified second here last year. The Merc does have potential around this track and Russell is often overlooked compared to his illustrious teammate.
Alex Albon is tempting at 21.00. The Williams loves straights and there are plenty here. The brutal truth is that he hasn’t qualified higher than 4th in 2023 and that was in a mixed up, wet-dry session in the Netherlands.
Russell can be backed at 19.00 each way but I’ll be a little more conservative and back him to qualify in the top 3.
2023 Mexico GP Qualifying Tip: 1 point George Russell to qualify in the top three @ 3.00 with Unibet
Ladbrokes have Yuki Tsunoda to qualify in the top 10 @ 17.00. The Alpha Tauri is enjoying the conditions here. Ricciardo has been top 8 in every session so far and Tsunoda was seventh in FP3.
The problem is that he is taking a grid penalty for a complete power unit change tomorrow and starts last whatever he does today. It is likely that the team will want to save as many sets of new tyres as possible and that is likely to stop any real attempt at making Q3. Ricciardo is just a 1.55 shot.
Valtteri Bottas is another who is flying in these strange conditions, 4th and 6th in both his sessions but again, his odds reflect that at just 1.60 to make Q3. I’ll stick with the Russell bet as the sole interest for this session.
