2023 Night 9 Premier League of Darts Preview – JP
2023 Night 9 Premier League Darts Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2023 Night 9 Premier League of Darts preview.
Night 9, the start of the second half of the Premier League, comes from Berlin. I assume that the likes of Gerwyn Price, fresh from his Euro Tour win in Leverkusen, just stayed on in Germany rather than rack up even more flights, especially as industrial action severely limited travel options in Germany earlier this week.
MVG On Top
The league table after the first eight weeks sees MVG on top with 25 points, Gerwyn Price second with 18, and then there is just four points covering the next four players. MVG and Price have now both won three nights and it would be a surprise if they were not to make the playoffs.
Peter Wright is now ten points of the playoff places and looks down and out. Clayton on seven is still hanging in, but five pointless nights from the first 8 weeks suggests that he will miss out on the playoffs for the first time.
Last week we lost three from four bets and it was a two point loss. We are still +1.40 points up for the tournament to date, but tonight is a bit of a make or break night as there does look to be a couple of mismatches. I thought that about MVG vs. Wright last week and while he did win, he didn’t cover the handicap.
Dimitri van den Bergh vs. Michael Smith
Van den Bergh is playing with more consistency but is still having the occasional bout of double trouble. He has won six of his last ten matches but lost two of his last three, with both defeats seeing checkout rates under 30%.
Michael Smith has a 7-5 H2H record over Van den Bergh and has beaten him in both of their two matches in this year’s league, 6-3 and 6-4.
Michael Smith has been struggling to win matches, losing six of his last ten. He has been suffering with a stomach bug but really should be over it by now. His scoring has remained pretty good, but he has not hit a ton plus average since he got ill at the UK Open. He has hit a lot of high 90s, so it is not like he is struggling, just lacking a bit of confidence.
Smith is the 1.57 favourite with Dimitri 2.50. The odds look about right, and I will leave this one be.
2023 Night 9 Premier League Darts Tip: No Bet
Nathan Aspinall vs. Chris Dobey
Aspinall has had a light schedule compared to most recently. He did not travel to Germany for PC7 & 8 and wasn’t playing in the European Darts Championships at the weekend. He got a very rare win over Van den Bergh last week in Newcastle, but then went down 0-6 to MVG in the semi-final.
The Asp remains in third place in the table, and he has only failed to score in two of the eight weeks so far. He has won six of his last ten matches and hit five ton plus averages. However, his leg difference is the second worst in the league at -12, thanks to three heavy defeats.
The H2H record sees a 5-3 lead for Aspinall and in this year’s PL, it is 1-1, with both matches ending 6-4.
Dobey Racking Up Miles
Dobey has been racking up the air miles having played in the two Players Championships and Euro Tour qualifiers in Germany Sunday to Tuesday, returning for last week’s PL in Newcastle before returning to Germany on Friday for the European Darts Open at the weekend.
Not surprisingly, he struggled with that schedule and only won half of his matches, compounded by lost luggage problems. A couple of days rest should have helped and he has picked up five points in the last two weeks of PL nights.
Aspinall is the 1.80 favourite with Dobey 2.00. Aspinall has been playing the better of the two and is likely to be a bit fresher. Their two matches so far have produced 15 maximums at a rate of 0.75 per leg and both are accomplished in that department.
2023 Night 9 Premier League Darts Tip: 1 over 5.50 180s @ 2.00 with SpreadEx
Jonny Clayton vs. Michael van Gerwen
The normally very consistent and steady Jonny Clayton is suffering with a prolonged period of poor form. It usually doesn’t last very long but this looks to be getting to him now. He has been used to a great deal of success in the PL, winning the title in his debut season and winning the league stage last year.
For the first time he is finding it all very hard work. He sits in seventh place, but with seven weeks to go, he is still not out of it. The problem is that his form suggests that he is, unless he finds his A game soon. Facing an in-form MVG in his opener tonight is exactly what he doesn’t need.
Michael van Gerwen has won seven of his last ten matches and all three defeats came against Gerwyn Price. Outside of facing his bogey man, MVG is largely playing well, but not his best. He got his first title of 2023 when winning PC7 a couple of weeks ago and in the PL he has picked up 20 points in the last five weeks. He has lost just one quarter final from eight played.
Relatively Close H2H
Their H2H record is actually quite good for Jonny Clayton. MVG is 20-15, only Phil Taylor has a better record against MVG for players playing more than twenty matches against him. At the start of 2023 that record was closer at 17-15 but Van Gerwen has won all three matches this year, all in the PL and all easy wins, 6-3, 6-3 and 6-2. Before that, Jonny was 6-3 up in PL matches against MVG. It seems The Ferret has been replaced by The Iceman as MVG’s Welsh nemesis.
Van Gerwen is the 1.40 favourite with Clayton 3.40.
Clayton has lost eight matches in this year’s league and with a leg difference of -13 (the worst in the league) he has tended to lose fairly heavily. Six of his eight defeats have seen under 10 legs.
2023 Night 9 Premier League Darts Tip: 1 point under 9.5 legs @ 1.72 with Unibet
Peter Wright vs. Gerwyn Price
Peter Wright sits bottom of the table with just two points. He has played just nine matches and won one. That is a lot of travelling around just to lose. It must be soul destroying. His problems are off the oche, and he would rather not be travelling right now. He will bounce back at some point but there is no sign of it yet.
Wright was 5-1 up against Ricardo Pietreczko in the European Darts Open at the weekend but ended up losing the match. He has now lost seven of his last ten matches and five of his last six. His average over those last ten is 91.5 and his last three all sub 90.
Iceman Firing
Compare and contrast to Gerwyn Price. The Iceman has won nine of his last ten, he won the European Darts Open on Sunday and has won the last two nights of PL action. He is trying something new. Being positive with the crowds.
The penny may have dropped. He can’t beat several thousand people and maybe saying how great the crowd is at the end of matches is taking some of the heat off him. He can win a large part of the crowd over if he is playing well, threatening a nine darter and so on. It also means he can shut up the boo boys if he is thrashing his opponent.
Last Thursday was a case in point, nobody in the crowd could do anything but applaud a player averaging 114 and giving MVG a lesson. He carried that form to Germany for the Euro Tour and hit four successive ton plus averages before beating Dirk van Duijvenbode 8-7 in the final.
Fair Crowd
Price has always got a fairer reception in mainland Europe and he was especially gushing in praise towards the Leverkusen crowd at the weekend. This week, being back in Germany will suit him just fine.
Price is the 1.50 favourite, which looks generous. The only reason I can see for that generosity is that the only match Wright has won in this year’s PL was against Price. It was a 5-6 loss and Price was off his game, averaging just 89 back in week 6. Since then Price is six from six in the PL and picked up his first title of the year last weekend in Euro Tour. It is safe to say he has hit top form.
Wright has a 22-11 H2H record against Price but on current form this looks like a two point pick up for Price, albeit in a short format match.
2023 Night 9 Premier League Darts Tip: 2 points Price to win -1.5 legs @ 1.83 with Betvictor
I am not a great one for multiples but am prepared to take the chance that both MVG and Price can cover a -1.5 leg handicap. The odds look too big given the most recent form.
