2023 Ryder Cup Betting Preview and Tips – JP
2023 Ryder Cup Betting Preview
The 2023 Ryder Cup, the 44th renewal, starts this Friday. The Marco Simone Golf and Country Club is the venue, the first time the Cup has been played in Italy and only the third time it has been played on mainland Europe. Spain and most recently, France have been the previous mainland hosts and Team Europe won them both.
The venue is very important. The home team get to decide on how the course will be set up, hopefully to play to the strengths of the home team or to make it harder for the away team.
Five years ago, Le Golf National played a key part in Europe’s success. The landing areas from the tee were narrow, giving the American big hitters small targets on which to land their drives. It worked a treat. The home team members will have more knowledge about the course and it has played host to three Italian Opens, giving the European players plenty of opportunity to play it ‘in anger’.
Controversial Omission
European Captain Luke Donald made one controversial omission from the European squad by leaving out Adrian Meronk, the winner of this year’s Italian Open (and runner up in 2021), but the 2022 winner Robert McIntyre and 2021 winner Nicolai Hojgaard are both in.
The home advantage factor has been massive for Europe. Since the event became a biannual match between the USA and Europe in 1979, Team Europe have played ten Ryder Cups ‘at home’ and won seven, tied one and lost just two.
They have won the last six home Ryder Cups in a row, by an average winning score of 16.21 – 11.79. A surprisingly wide margin of victory. They have been the winning most team, winning eleven of the twenty events played since European players joined the fray.
Poor Travellers
Every two years we have the usual argument that the USA team have the stronger team, the better players, the highest ranked players and so on. The bottom line is that, for whatever reason, they don’t travel well. Better players or not, they are not the same side as they are when playing in the USA.
I would forget about looking at the world rankings of the players, it is a bad guide. You will hear a lot about the Americans’ strength in depth, but it was always so. It is not as if Team Europe are made up with a few star players and a bunch of club pros.
The Players – Team Europe
All of the European Team played at the PGA Championship, the DP World Tour’s flagship event two weeks ago. All made the cut and seven players finished in the top 10. They also made a team trip to Rome to play the course and do some team bonding.
Jon Rahm
Was Europe’s top points scorer in Wisconsin with 3.5 points and he played all five matches there. He is in reasonable form coming into the event but he has had a fairly quiet end to the season.
Rory McIlroy
The most experienced Ryder Cup player in the squad. In six appearances he played in all five matches five times. He is in good form with five top seven finishes from his last seven events. His Ryder Cup record is not great and he has lost seven of his last ten matches and never been top points scorer.
Viktor Hovland
Played all five matches on his debut in 2021, but he only managed two halves. He is in great form, winning two of his last three events and 5th in the other. Hovland is likely to feature in all five once again.
Tyrell Hatton
This will be his third Ryder Cup appearance but he has only picked up two wins from the first two. Hatton was T2nd at Wentworth for the PGA Championship.
Matt Fitzpatrick
His Ryder Cup record is played five and lost five. He was runner up over this course at the 2022 Italian Open and he should break his duck this time. He has had a couple of top 3 finishes from his last four events. Might not play the full five matches if he gets off to a losing start. This will be his first Ryder Cup on home soil.
Justin Rose
Captain Donald is banking on his experience here. He has played in five Ryder Cups and he has a very good foursomes record, winning 7.5 points from a possible 10. He is not getting any younger and is the oldest player at the 2023 Ryder Cup. That may limit the number of games he plays. He was Europe’s top scorer in 2014. His recent form is nothing to write home about.
Tommy Fleetwood
Has the best scoring rate of anyone on the European team (6.5 from 10). He was a runner up in Italian Open here in 2021. He has five top 10s from his last six events and he looks to be a major player on the European side.
Shane Lowry
Something of a controversial pick as his form in 2023 has not been great. He did show some better form at the Irish Open but he looks a risky pick to me. The two Irish players will get plenty of support and he is something of a talisman.
Robert McIntyre
The first of the rookies and the first Scot to play in the Ryder Cup since 2014. He won the Italian Open here in 2022 and while his form has been patchy of late, he has had three top 10s from his last eight. I suspect he will not be a front line selection.
Sepp Straka
A two time winner on the PGA Tour but a bit of an unknown this side of the pond. He lives in America and could easily pass as an American player. If he gets a point, he will be the first Austrian to have done so.
His recent form is decent with a 6th and 10th from his last two tournaments. On top of his PGA Tour wins, Straka was tied second at The Open Championship, 6th at the season ending Tour Championship and 10th at the PGA Championship at Wentworth.
It’s hard to say where he fits in, but will he be a player to get five games? Unlikely.
Nicolai Hojgaard
Only 22 years old but a winner over this course in 2021 and 5th this year. His recent form is OK, with three top 10s from his last seven tournaments.
He played well in the Hero Cup, a team matchplay event. He was joint top points scorer and played with one of Luke Donald’s vice captains, Francesco Molinari. That will have been a good impression made, and combined with his excellent course form, he may be a favoured pick if he starts well.
Ludvig Aberg
A real wild card selection. Aberg only turned pro in June and finished his first DP World Tour event in 4th place. He followed that by winning the European Masters in Switzerland, birdieing four of the final five holes.
He has already won a PGA Tour card and the future is bright for the hotly tipped 23 year old. I wasn’t blown away by his performance at Wentworth where he went into the final round in the lead, only to finish T10th with a four over round of 76.
He could be anything, but it is a risk picking such an inexperienced player for the biggest golfing event in the world.
Team USA
Scotty Scheffler
The top ranked USA player and brilliant in all aspects of the game, with the exception of putting. He ended the season ranked 150th for shots gained in putting. He pretty much tops all the other key stats but his putting sticks out like a score thumb.
That can be mitigated in the pairs events by putting him out with a good putter, but I dare say he wouldn’t get many gimmies from the Europeans.
Brooks Koepka
The only LIV Tour player in either team. How that will impact on things, if at all, will be interesting. He earned his place with his performances in the majors, in which he has always excelled.
He has played in three previous Ryder Cups and is unbeaten in the singles. His form is all on the LIV tour, outside of the majors, and he hasn’t made much of an impression in his last three with a best finish of 24th. I wouldn’t read too much into that as he is a big event specialist.
Justin Thomas
One of Zach Johnson’s risky picks. Thomas has not been in good form in 2023 but he did end the season with a 12th and 5th in his last two events. He was picked due to his excellent Ryder Cup/Presidents Cup record. He has also been their best player on enemy soil.
Thomas is best friends with Jordan Spieth and no doubt they will be paired together once more. He is 6-2-1 in his previous two Ryder Cups, unbeaten in fourballs and singles. Very likely to get the full five, unless his form lets him down.
Jordan Spieth
Like his buddy Thomas, Spieth can’t show much in the way of great form in late 2023 by his standards. He had just one top 20 from his last five events. The 30-year-old has an 8-7-3 career record, including 5-2-0 in Four balls. He gels well with Thomas and will no doubt be paired with him again.
His singles record is poor, however, with just a half point from four matches. The Americans will hope that Thomas and Spieth’s chemistry will fire them up, but they may not be the strong pairing they have been.
Xander Schauffele
Made 22 cuts from his 22 starts on the PGA Tour this season (he did withdraw from one) and he is the ultimate in consistency, if not quite an out and out winner of titles. He made his debut in Wisconsin two years ago and won three pairs matches but lost his singles match to McIlroy.
Bound to get plenty of action and should be a good points scorer. Ranked 4th for shots gained putting, might he be the man to pair up with Scheffler?
Patrick Cantlay
Has proven himself in this format with 3.5 from four matches in the last Ryder Cup and 6 from nine in the President’s Cup. Another player who didn’t win in 2023 but he was very consistent and is one of the best players in the USA line up. He was three from four in Wisconsin and he should be a good points scorer, if he travels well.
Cantlay played twice in Europe this year and missed the cut at the Scottish Open and was T33rd in The Open. He was 4th and 8th in those events in 2022, so his travelling credentials are probably fine.
Max Homa
One of the four rookies on the USA team. He won all four of his matches in the 2022 Presidents Cup. He is a very good putter, ranked 6th for shots gained putting and he could be another candidate to partner Scheffler.
Max finished the season in great form. He had four top 10s in his last six and never worse than 13th. Homa could be a big player for the USA.
Brian Harman
Making his Ryder Cup debut at the age of 36. He had a great second half of the season, winning The Open Championship and 5th at the BMW Championship. Hard to say how many matches he will get, but as a rookies, the full five is unlikely.
Wyndham Clark
Won twice in 2023, including the US Open. Another debutant and his best form came in the first half of the year. No real pedigree in this format and may not be a mainstay player.
Collin Morikawa
A two time major winner but he hasn’t picked up a title since winning The Open in July 2021. His form in 2023 hasn’t been great. He was 3-0-1 on debut in Wisconsin, winning three pairs matches.
Across the Ryder Cup/Presidents Cup he is 9.5 from 11 which suggests he will get plenty of matches. Whether his form is good enough remains to be seen.
Ricky Fowler
Back from the golfing wilderness, Fowler has played in four previous Ryder Cups and not with much success. He has won just three matches from fifteen and just one from twelve in Europe.
His most recent form is ordinary at best. Big mates with Thomas and Spieth and has he been picked because he fits in rather than on pure golfing merits?
Sam Burns
Won the WGC Matchplay this year but was a flop at the President’s Cup, losing three and drawing two. He was paired with Scheffler for three matches, they are good friends, but they only got one draw.
He is another good putter, but he couldn’t help get Scotty over the line, which is interesting. Another debutant who may have to sit out a few matches.
2023 Ryder Cup: Ante Post Selections
The market, once again, has USA as the favourites at 2.05 with Europe 2.20 and the tie 13.00. History says, back the Europeans at home.
That may seem a bit mad after seeing how badly Europe got beaten in the last Ryder Cup. That can be balanced by the fact that the USA lost by seven points in the preceding one.
Since we had that big win for the USA in Wisconsin, LIV golf has happened and, in my opinion, that has weakened the USA more than Europe.
The Americans have lost Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau and Patrick Reed. Europe didn’t really lose anyone. Poulter, Westwood, Garcia? They were out of juice and on the way out in any case. Europe was due a new generation coming through and the LIV thing just underlined that.
2023 Ryder Cup Tip: 2.5 points Europe to win the Ryder Cup @ 2.20 with Betfred
Correct score betting is popular but fiendishly difficult to predict. In home venue matches Europe have won twice by an 18.5 – 9.5 margin, twice by 16.5 – 11.5 and twice by 14.5 – 13.5.
In the last twenty Ryder Cups, the most common winning score has been 14.5 – 13.5 which has occurred seven times. The winning margin in the last four Ryder cups have been big. USA won the last one 19-9, the widest margin in the Team Europe era.
Before that, Europe inflicted a 17.5 – 10.5 scoreline on the USA. In 2016 it was the USA winning 17-11 and in 2014 it was 16.5 – 11.5 to Europe. Seven of the last nine Ryder Cups have seen a winning margin of 5 points or more.
The market is making a closer match the favourite this year. A European win by 1-3 points is 4.60, a USA win by 1-3, 4.50. Europe have won two of the last four home Ryder Cups by 7 or more points. That will be a very unfashionable bet with USA having the stronger team blah blah blah.
2023 Ryder Cup Tip: 0.5 point Europe to win by 7 points or more @ 9.00 with Livescorebet
Finding the highest points scorer can be very rewarding but with most of the points played for in the pairs formats in days one and two, you need to try and guess which players are going to play the most games, preferably all five possible.
You have to try and second guess how the Captains will pick their teams. The Europeans have tended to play players from the same nation together, but that is not really an option this year. There is only one Spaniard, one Swede, one Norwegian, one Austrian, one Scot and one Dane. There are two Irishmen and four English players.
Big European Beasts
The Big Beasts of the Europe side are McIlroy and Rahm. You would expect Captain Donald to roll them out as often as possible.
McIlroy has played a total of 6 Ryder Cups, 28 matches and won 12 points. He is the most played European team member in the current side and it is a fair bet he plays five matches.
His win rate isn’t great however and he has never been Europe’s top points scorer. That will be down to the fact that he will tend to get drawn to play the top American players. That and his poor putting.
Sometimes it pays to side with one of the less fancied or famous players, so long as they are in good form. If you win matches, you’ll get picked. For the last Ryder Cup played in Europe, I tipped up Molinari to be the top points scorer and he obliged with a perfect five from five.
Hovland Flying
Victor Hovland can now be considered one of Europe’s Big Beasts. The World number four is in cracking form, winning two of his last three tournaments, and he should be looking at getting five matches.
The Captains will also be looking to match up players who have complementary skill sets. For the USA, Scotty Scheffler should be paired with their best putter, ditto for McIlroy on the European side. A big bomber off the tee paired with a very accurate iron player makes sense.
It is probably best to avoid backing a rookie player to be top points scorer. They are less likely to play all five and the only rookie to be Europe top points scorer this century is Thomas Pieters in 2016.
Top European Points Scorer
Rory McIlroy is the 5.50 favourite to be Europe’s top points scorer, just ahead of Jon Rahm at 6.00. They are very likely to play all five and rightly are right up there in the betting. Victor Hovland is another likely lad. He should get five matches and he is in great form.
The one I like at bigger odds is Tommy Fleetwood. He is in good form, has a good record in the Ryder Cup and has played the course well in the Italian Open. He can be paired with anyone and is likely to get five matches.
2023 Ryder Cup Tip: 1 point e/w Tommy Fleetwood to be Europe’s top points scorer @ 8.00 with Boylesports
Top USA Points Scorer
Scotty Scheffler is the 5.50 favourite to be Team USA’s top scorer. His consistency suggests he will certainly play all five matches, but if the putter is cold, in front of a hostile crowd, he might find things tough.
There are question marks over the mighty Spieth/Thomas duo. Yes, both have great records and play well together, but neither have been near their best form.
I like the look of players like Schauffele, Homa and Patrick Cantlay. The latter is always a bit underrated but he has been in decent form and has a good matchplay pedigree.
2023 Ryder Cup Tip: 1 point e/w Patrick Cantlay to be top USA points scorer @ 7.00 generally available
Top USA Rookie
2023 Ryder Cup Tip: 1 point Max Homa to be the top USA Rookie @ 2.80 with Betfair
Top European Rookie
Nicolai Hojgaard has great course form and that can only make him feel comfortable. I suspect vice-captain Molinari will be singing his praises and he should get a decent run of matches.
