2023 Tuesday Newmarket Craven Meeting Tips – DS
2023 Tuesday Newmarket Craven Meeting Tips
The Grand National turned out to be a money pit. Unfortunately, Any Second Now was badly hampered early doors and that was game over. Minella Trump got round but he didn’t stay, as did Enjoy D’Allen and Fortescue. I was delighted to see Born By The Sea run so well, he is a major handicap winner in waiting. Now, the spotlight is back on the flat, check out Dave Stevos’ 2023 Tuesday Newmarket Craven meeting tips below.
1.50 – EBF Conditions Stakes (Class 2)
They’ve had 20mm of rain at Newmarket in the past week but it is due to be dry for the next three days. According to Turftrax the ground is soft, though by Thursday that might change. There should definitely be a bit of a dig in the ground on Day 1 of the Craven meeting and that will suit some better than others in the opener, a 7f Class 2 conditions race for the 3yos.
The highest rated in here with a mark of 97 is Tenjin. By Night of Thunder, he is 1/11 so far with that win coming on the all weather at Kempton in a handicap off 72. He had a very busy and progressive winter with his best run coming in a Listed heat at Lingfield when beaten 1L over 7f. However, he trailed in last at Newcastle last time out and his turf form is miles off his a/w form.
Unproven On Soft
Three of the six horses priced at 12/1 or shorter have zero soft ground form. That’s not to say they won’t handle it, they just haven’t proven themselves on it yet. The favourite, Majestic Pride, was placed on his debut on good to soft and he’s a half to the likes of Farrh, Racing History and Basem, all of whom won on ground with soft in the description. Appleby’s horses always seem to do well from 2yo to 3yo and he does look the most likely winner.
In the hope that soft ground slows a few of these down, Awtaad Prince is going to be the pick here. Amy Murphy is a decent operator and three of her last seven runners have finished 2nd. This horse won one of his four starts last season, a 6f novice on heavy at Leicester. Previous to that he ran a decent race on soft on debut at Sandown and a below par effort on the a/w at Southwell.
Listed Company
Murphy clearly thought a bit of this lad as she ran him in Listed company on his final start of 2022. In that race at Saint Cloud (7f hvy) he showed up well for a long way before tiring in the last furlong and fading into 5th. The 3rd from that race, Denver Chop, ran respectably behind Marshman in a Chantilly G3 on Monday and it is arguably stronger form than a few of his rivals have shown.
It looked like he didn’t stay 7f last time out but maybe his stamina might hold out on this slightly better ground. Murphy is 1/4 with her 3yo runners on the Rowley course and Stefano Cherchi is 10/141 with 47 top 4 finishes for the yard. There is a chance Awtaad Prince could be outclassed here so keep stakes small, but his ability to handle soft ground is enough to warrant a small e/w interest at odds of 50/1.
2023 Tuesday Newmarket Craven Meeting Tip: Awtaad Prince e/w @ 50/1
2.25 – National Stud Handicap (Class 2)
Vafortino looks tempting in this 7f handicap but will he be going all out to win? He won the Victoria Cup at Ascot off a mark of 97 last May and you’d imagine he’ll be targeting a repeat bid in that. Now rated 103, if he was mine I’d be hoping to get his mark down before running in that race again. So, instead, I’m going to take a chance on Final Watch.
William Stone trains this son of Mukhadram and he is 1/1 over this C&D. That win admittedly came in a low grade handicap off 72 but he won at Ascot off 86 last season and he is only 3lbs higher today. After that win he ran well below par on his final two runs of the year, at Newbury on soft and at Doncaster on heavy. He has run well on similar ground before so maybe there was another issue that caused him to perform so poorly.
Final Watch ran a grand race on his seasonal comeback last season, beat just 2.25L off 88 at Chelmsford. Andrea Atzeni has been booked for the ride today and he finished second on his only other ride for William Stone. Trip and track look ideal, the soft ground shouldn’t be an issue and if he is fit and ready to go, Final Watch can hopefully reward e/w support at odds of 12/1.
2023 Tuesday Newmarket Craven Meeting Tip: Final Watch e/w @ 12/1
3.00 – Close Brothers Handicap (Class 2)
Running off an effective mark of 88 thanks to Jonny Peate’s 5lbs claim, Toshizou could run well here for Roger Fell. Formerly trained in Ireland by Jessie Harrington, his last start across the pond came in a decent 8f handicap at Leopardstown. In that contest he was beat 2.5L into 5th off 96 and he then headed to the October Sales where he was picked up by current connections for 22k.
On his first run for Fell he pitched up in the Lincoln Handicap at Doncaster (8f hvy). When you consider it was his first run back on bottomless ground, he ran a pretty respectable race to finish 10th of 22, 7.75L behind the winner Migration. Jonny Peate stopped riding in the last 100 yards so he could arguably have finished a length closer.
He was 1.25L behind Bopedro, who re-opposes here off 1lb worse terms. Just three runs ago this horse was beat less than a length off 95 at Limerick and he is effectively 7lbs lower today. His sole win came on good to yielding at Tipperary as a 2yo but he has run well both starts on yielding/soft. Hopefully that Lincoln run has left him spot on fitness wise and if it has, Toshizou can hopefully hit the frame at odds of 20/1.
2023 Tuesday Newmarket Craven Meeting Tip: Toshizou e/w @ 20/1 (4 places) NB
3.35 – Earl Of Sefton Stakes (Group 3)
The Godolphin pair are the top rated in this with marks of 113 (Ottoman Fleet) and 111 (Blue Trail). The former horse is the mount of William Buick and he looks the stable no.1. He has been in Meydan, just like his stablemate, but unlike Blue Trail he has won on soft. That win came in a 10f Listed race on the Rowley course back in October so he ticks the track box too. The only worry is the 9f trip (0/3 over the distance) but his class might be enough to see him through.
The one I like for e/w purposes is Epic Poet. This 4yo moved from Jean Claude Rouget to Martyn and Freddie Meade in the off season. This horse has loads of form at 10f on easy ground, including a place in G3 company behind West Wind Blows at Longchamp. On his last two runs he found 10f just a shade too far and this 9f trip could prove to be the making of him.
The 4yo son of Lope De Vega likes to lead and there’s a chance he might be left alone in front in this contest. He does lack a run but it’s the same for most of his rivals and in any case, Meade is well able to ready one first time out. Tom Marquand is booked and he is 1/10 with 5 top 4 finishes for this stable. Epic Poet is 2/2 over 9f, he handles cut and at odds of 18/1, he can make a bold bid from the front.
