2024 Baltic Sea Darts Open Betting Preview – JP
2024 Baltic Sea Darts Open betting Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Baltic Sea Darts Open outright betting preview.
Overview
The sixth European Tour event of the season comes from Kiel in Northern Germany. That is a near six hour flight & train ride from London. I wonder if that is within Gary Anderson’s range of travel? Since winning the European Darts Grand Prix last month, that range has shrunk.
There is a £1000 fine for players who withdraw from these events, but that is no deterrent for the wealthy players. Writing these previews is an exercise in frustration, as we get late withdrawals all the time, especially when the Premier League is taking place.
The likes of Aspinall, Humphries, Anderson and Price are all on the entry list as of Thursday morning, but what odds on all of them turning up?
Fed Up
Even the bookmakers are getting fed up. Nobody is pricing up early, rightly wary of a few of the favourites not showing up. One player who will is Luke Littler. The only player to have won more than one PDC title in 2024 and he is two from three on the Euro Tour.
Luke Woodhouse and Jermain Wattimena are the reserve players standing by the phone, bags packed.
As of Friday morning, as I type, Gary Anderson and Gerwyn Price are confirmed withdrawals. Woodhouse and Wattimena are in as replacements. Joe Cullen and Krzysztof Ratajski are promoted to seeded status, and I have to do a bit of a re-write. Hopefully there will be no more late withdrawals.
The 2024 Baltic Sea Darts Open Seeds
1 Dave Chisnall
Hasn’t got beyond the second round in any of the first five events. However, he showed some very good form in the Players Championship events on Monday and Tuesday, reaching the fourth round on both days, hitting four ton plus averages and averaging 101 across the two events. The defending champion is in contention.
2 Damon Heta
Not in great form, losing five of his last ten matches and seven saw sub 93 averages. Hard to fancy.
3 Luke Humphries
Returns to the Euro Tour on the back of winning Night 15 of the Premier League. He played better than he has done of late, but it was three matches in front of a partisan crowd. We shall have to wait and see if his consistency is indeed back.
4 Rob Cross
Thrashed by a very good Luke Humphries last night, Cross has won five of his last ten matches and has a 2024 win rate of 50%. He continues to play very well but doesn’t win things.
5 Jonny Clayton
Made the quarter final of ET1 but his form has been indifferent since last summer. He played three good matches in PC10 on Monday and while he is hard to fancy for the title, he may win a few matches.
6 Michael van Gerwen
Was runner up in in the PL last night, but he continues to play below par. Two sub 93 averages last night. He beat Littler 6-1, but MVG didn’t play that well, a couple of good legs, but there were two 17 dart winning legs and a 26. He got away with an ordinary performance. Van Gerwen has lost six of his last ten matches. He was very ordinary against Humphries as well and he makes no appeal.
7 Josh Rock
Having lost six of his last ten matches, Rock will be getting frustrated. He has reached a couple of ET quarter finals and is playing well enough, but maybe just going off the boil?
8 Dirk van Duijvenbode
Has lost eight of his last ten matches and his last six in a row. 0-5 in Europe in 2024. One to oppose.
9 Ryan Searle
Has reached two Euro Tour quarter-finals in 2024 and seemed to be getting the hang of it, but his recent form saw two first match losses in the last two events. Overall, he has lost five of his last ten matches. Searle did not travel to Germany for the two Players Championship events earlier this week.
10 Danny Noppert
Has reached three quarter finals so far in 2024 but still has a bad game too often. He can have another decent run, but can he play five good ones in a row?
11 Peter Wright
Time to give it all up? He managed to get his averaged to a giddy 82.69 in his 1-6 loss to Littler last night. It was embarrassing. Seven losses from his last ten matches. No chance.
12 Ricardo Pietreczko
Has lost seven of his last ten and his most recent form this week saw him average 83 across his three matches. Opposable.
13 Stephen Bunting
Reached two quarter finals earlier in the week. Bunting has won eight of his last ten matches and has reached two Euro Tour semi-finals in 2024. Playing well on the whole, but he still loses too many matches at the business end. Could have another good run, but going all the way?
14 Ross Smith
He has given us a good run for our money in recent weeks. Runner up in ET4 and semi-finalist in ET5. A bit frustrating, and for him too. Smudger only won one match at the Players Championships this week but you have to respect his Euro Tour form in 2024.
15 Krzysztof Ratajski
Reached the semi-final of both Players Championships earlier this week. I had backed him at 67.00 for ET10, but he underperformed in the semi-final, losing 5-7 to Jeffery de Graff. Still, back to back semi-finals is good shooting. He has won eight of his last ten matches, and while he is not banker material yet, he is worth considering. He has won a couple of Euro Tour titles, so he can get the job done.
16 Joe Cullen
Runner up to Littler in ET5, Cullen played four very strong matches to reach the final, but fluffed his lines when he got there, averaging 85.5 and losing 4-8.
The Rockstar travelled to Hildesheim for the Players Championships on Monday and Tuesday, which was a surprise. Cullen believes all Players Championships should be played in England, and Karma was bitch as he lost both first round matches, 2-6 and 0-6. His averages were 83 and 73.
Maybe he was just a bit huffy about having to travel to Europe, but it was hardly inspiring stuff after such good play in ET5. Very hard to place his form. He has lost six of his last ten matches and his run to the final last time out was a surprise.
Best of the Unseeded Players
Chris Dobey
Continues to play some very good stuff. He has won six of his last ten matches and he reached the quarter final of ET9 on Monday, averaging 100.94 for the day. He is one of the heaviest scorers in the game right now but the only thing he lacks is a lot of titles. Hollywood has won on the pro tour in 2024 and he really should be able to pick up a Euro Tour title at some point.
Daryl Gurney
Superchin has been simmering for a while now. He reached the quarter-final on Tuesday. It was a good run, but he lost that match to Brendan Dolan, who went on to win the title and the £15k prizemoney. That means Dolan has jumped Gurney in the race for a place in the World Cup.
Superchin is now £4.5k behind Dolan and the cut-off date is the 27th of May. Dolan is playing this weekend, so their battle to partner Rock goes on, but it is now Gurney who is under pressure to go deep.
He has won seven of his last ten matches, hit five ton plus averages, but also four sub 91 averages. It is those weak performances which are holding him back, but he isn’t far from his best.
Martin Schindler
Schindy didn’t play in the Players Championships on Monday and Tuesday, despite the fact that they were in Germany. Odd. Perhaps he wasn’t well? That is the only thing that goes against him.
He has been on fire on the Euro Tour, winning ET3, a semi-finalist in ET2 and a quarter finalist in ET5. He has won eight of his last ten matches, all on the Euro Tour and hit eight 95+ averages, including four ton plus averages.
We backed him two weeks ago and I thought he was going to do it, but he just fizzled out in the quarter final, averaging 91.99 in a 5-6 loss to Bunting. Has to be on the shortlist once again.
Ryan Joyce
Relentless is a player to follow when he is in form, much like Brendan Dolan. Joyce was runner up in PC9 on Monday and reached the fourth round on Tuesday. That means he has won eight of his last ten matches.
Joyce is not regarded as a great traveller so to do so well in Hildesheim earlier in the week is encouraging. He has never gone beyond the last 16 stage on the Euro Tour and winning the whole shebang might be too big an ask, but he is worth following in his matches.
Brendan Dolan
The History Maker won his tenth Players Championship title on Tuesday. He did get a good draw, but he made the most of it. If you want one good betting tip, it could be just to back Dolan blind in every Players Championship event. He tends to pick one up every year and he rarely starts shorter than 151.00.
He is great form, winning eight of his last ten matches. His Euro Tour record is poor. He has made one final and that was in 2013. He hasn’t got beyond the second round in the first five events in 2024, but he has played some really good stuff in defeat.
Dolan will be felling chipper, and quite relaxed. He looks to have played himself into most of the big majors and all is rosy in the Dolan Garden.
Luke Littler
There are a lot of players coming into this event at the first round stage who are in great form, but none more so than Littler. His biggest threat maybe having to travel from Leeds to Kiel on Friday and make it on time for his opening match.
It is a 7-8 hour journey by plane and train, depending on the airport of departure. He will get his usual last slot on Friday night but it may depend on who he draws. He has got some nice ones so far.
De Sousa in ET1, which he only won 6-5, Arno Merk in ET4 (6-0) and Zoran Lerchbacher in ET5 (6-2). He was poor against Lerchbacher, averaging just 91.61 and if Littler come up against the likes of Gurney, Dolan, Dobey etc, he is beatable. If he keeps on getting soft draws, it begs the question.
Ritchie Edhouse
Madhouse is in the form of his life, is thriving in Europe and reached the semi-final on Monday. He has won seven of his last ten matches, is very confident and has won seven from ten on the Euro Tour. It must be said that the big averages are dying up a little, but he remains a dangerous opponent.
The 2024 Baltic Sea Darts Open Draw
The draw has been made as I have been writing this preview. We have had two seeds withdraw. It is no surprise to See Gary ‘I’ll play in everything’ Anderson, pull out, He hates travelling and one trip to Germany in a week was clearly enough. Gerwyn Price has also pulled out.
Wattimena and Woodhouse are in, while Ratajski and Cullen get promoted to seeded status. That may not be the end of the withdrawals of course and we shall see on Friday morning if any of the PL players make late withdrawals.
First Quarter
Some in-form players enter at the first round stage. We have Chris Dobey play Madars Razma for the right to face Chizzy. Not a good draw for them. Daryl Gurney will face an out of form Dimitri van den Bergh in the first round, with the winner to play the out of form Dirk van Duijvenbode.
A good draw for Superchin, but he may well face Brendan Dolan in the third round. Dolan faces Wattimena in the first round and it is Wattimena who has won their last four matches. The winner of that plays Ryan Searle.
The seeds are Chisnall, Cullen, Van Duijvenbode and Searle. It is a very hard quarter to predict.
Second Quarter
Rob Cross is the top seed, joined by Bunting, Clayton and Pietreczko. I would draw a line through Pietreczko but the other seeds are in decent form. The non seeds are not so powerful.
Ritchie Edhouse faces Nathan Aspinall for the right to face Clayton. I am surprised to see Aspinall in the entry list after saying he was only in the PL until it is finished. Perhaps he feels his place in the finals was secure enough to throw his hat in the ring.
Cross is due to play Bunting in the third round and that looks to be the pivotal match. Cross has won their last three, but they were even steven in 2023/22. He is 9-3 overall but it would be a coin toss sort of match. Edhouse vs. Aspinall would be another coin toss and the winner vs. Clayton, just about the same.
Like the 1st Quarter, a very tough quarter to call, but Cross makes some appeal. That appeal is tempered by the fact that his conversion rate is poor for a 15.00 shot.
Third Quarter
Damon Heta is the top seed here, but hard to fancy on recent form. He is likely to face Gian van Veen in round two. The Heat is 4-2 with Van Veen, but Van Veen has inflicted two very heavy defeats on Heta.
The in-form Ratajski will face the winner of the Schindler vs. De Decker match. Tough draw for both Schindler and Ratajski, two players on the short list. Josh Rock and Danny Noppert are the other two seeds. Both are capable of a good run but both have question marks over their form.
The quarter winner looks to be between Schindler and Ratajski to me. Ratajski is 5-2 with Schindler, but they haven’t played since 2022. Noppert could sneak through, but it depends on the odds. Schindler is 51.00, Ratajski 81.00 and Noppert 26.00.
Fourth Quarter
Another fiendish draw. Luke Humphries is the top seed, but he hasn’t been in top form. The other seeds are Ross Smith, Michael van Gerwen and Peter Wright. I think we can scrub Peter Wright as a possible quarter winner. You can pick holes in the form of MVG and Humphries, but either could make it through.
The unseeded players in the first round include Ryan Joyce and Luke Woodhouse who met for the right to face Ross Smith. Well done if you can pick who comes through there.
Luke Littler could have had a harder draw, but he is not going to have it all his own way against the heavy scoring Wessel Nijman. The young Dutchman is ranked 5th for 180s per leg and his A game is more than enough to bother Littler. His consistency is still to come, but Nijman has a lot of potential.
They have met six times on the Development tour, and Nijman has won five. That will be a huge match and if Nijman can knock out Littler, the tournament really opens up. The winner of that match faces MVG.
2024 Baltic Sea Darts Open Summary
There are times when I look at a Euro Tour draw and it is relatively easy to narrow the field down, quarter by quarter. This is not one of those. This is as difficult a draw to try and decipher as I can remember. Just not having an outright bet might be the best option.
If in doubt, just keep it simple. Who is in great form and are at attractive odds.
Two players who tick both boxes are Martin Schindler and Krzysztof Ratajski. Of course they get drawn to meet in the second round. Sod’s law. The obvious solution is to back both but split the stakes. Krzysztof is 81.00 and Schindler 51.00. More than acceptable odds.
Good Form
The same can be said of Dobey and Chisnall. Both look to be in good form, and they are drawn to meet in the second round. Dobey is 29.00, Chisnall 34.00. Decent odds, but just not quite good enough.
Also in that first quarter is Daryl Gurney. He is in good form, has the ability to win big titles, doesn’t do that often enough, but he does have a good looking draw. He faces the out of form Van den Bergh in the first round, the equally out of form Dirk van Duijvenbode in the second, and if he gets there, Brendan Dolan in the third.
Gurney lost to Dolan in the Players Championship earlier in the week, but he usually beats him, and Dolan is not a great Euro Tour player. There is a good opportunity for Gurney to make the fourth round and just two matches from the final. Odds of 81.00 are acceptable, but only to small stakes. It is a long time since he made a final after all.
Madhouse
Another player who we have seen in great form in Europe lately is Ritchie Edhouse. He has only ever won at Challenge Tour level, but he is playing his best ever darts, is very confident and he is big odds. He is probably a good value loser, but better that, than just a loser.
As for the favourites, Luke Humphries could clean up. He has Littler and MVG in the same quarter, but frankly, MVG is not really a threat right now, and I think Littler loses tonight. However, Humphries is only 5.00, which is a bit on the short side for this format.
Selections
I will be betting to very small stakes only this weekend, expect to come up dry, but you never know.
