2024 Champion Chase Stats That Matter – DS

by Dave Stevos | Feb 28, 2024

2024 Champion Chase Stats That Matter

It is now time for our third instalment of stats based previews for the Cheltenham Festival. Dave Stevos has already covered the Gold Cup and the Ryanair Chase. Check out our 2024 Champion Chase Stats That Matter preview below.

Age

As is usually the case with these top quality races, age is the first stat we’ll use to narrow the Champion Chase field. This century, only three horses older than 9yo and three horses younger than 7yo have won this race. So, the stats say the most likely winner will be aged between 7yo and 9yo.

Who comes a cropper at this stage? Edwardstone backers look away now because Alan King’s 10yo can’t win, according to the stats. Elixir De Nutz may have beaten Jonbon last time but as a 10yo, he too has to be discounted. The other two casualties at this point are Editeur Du Gite and Appreciate It.

Cut: Edwardstone (9/1); Appreciate It (50/1); Elixir De Nutz (25/1); Editeur Du Gite (40/1).

Course Form

So, that leaves us with just nine remaining contenders. In chases at Cheltenham, possessing previous course experience is usually a big asset. Energumene managed to defy the course form stat when he won his first Champion Chase in 2022, only the third horse to do so since the turn of the century.

To narrow the field further, we’ll discount horses that have either failed to place or that have never run at Cheltenham. Peter Fahey’s Visionarian has yet to run here so the stats say we have to put a line through him. Boothill is another one with no course experience and Gentleman De Mee ran poorly on his only previous visit so it’s also a no for him.

Cut: Visionarian (66/1); Boothill (50/1); Gentleman De Mee (40/1).

Graded Wins

It is rare that a horse gains its first Graded win in the Champion Chase. Every single winner since the year 2000 had won at either Grade 1 or Grade 2 level previously. Most of the horses that are still standing tick this box, apart from the Henry De Bromhead trained mare Maskada. She’s likely heading for a repeat bid in the Grand Annual.

Cut: Maskada (100/1).

2024 Champion Chase Stats That Matter: The Final Five

And then there were five. The longest priced survivor is the 2022 runner up, Funambule Sivola. Since that excellent effort he has run well just once in twelve starts, a Grade 2 win at Newbury in February of last year. He was beaten 40L behind Edwardstone last time, he was beat 11L off 148 in a Doncaster handicap chase on his previous start and he is very hard to fancy.

Ferny Hollow returned from a mammoth absence last weekend, beating our NAP Rebel Gold at Naas (16f). He had 5 lengths to spare over his 143 rated rival and he was getting 7lbs from him. That form won’t be anywhere near good enough to feature in this and he has the dreaded bounce factor to worry about too.

Captain Has E/W Claims

Henry De Bromhead has a fine record in this race. He has won two of the last seven renewals, he had the third home in 2022 and last year, Captain Guinness finished second behind Energumene. It would be no surprise if he nicked some e/w money again.

He looked better than ever on his seasonal comeback at Navan in November, beating Riviere D’etel by 7L. On his next start at Leopardstown he was pulled up and found to be clinically abnormal. Last time at the DRF he finished 3rd, 14.5L behind El Fabiolo. He wasn’t given a hard race and it was an ideal prep for the main event.

Stable Worries

Jonbon is second best in the betting. However, the form of his trainer Nicky Henderson has to be a massive worry. He’s had more horses pull up than complete in the last week or so and his stable star Constitution Hill has come down with a lung infection. In any case, El Fabiolo was far too good for him in last year’s Arkle and even if Henderson was flying, you couldn’t see him turning that form around.

The Willie Mullins trained El Fabiolo is odds on and he deserves to be. He is proper two mile chaser and he is 6/6 over fences. The 7yo son of Spanish Moon has youth on his side and he handles all sorts of ground. He has to be considered one of the bankers of the meeting.

From an each way perspective, Captain Guinness makes most appeal. He has finished second and third on his last two runs at the Festival and I’d imagine he has been trained to peak for this race. Barring accidents, he won’t beat El Fabiolo but if he is at his best, he can chase him home and odds of 20/1 are big enough to justify an e/w interest.

2024 Champion Chase Stats That Matter – DS