2024 Ryanair Chase Stats That Matter – DS
2024 Ryanair Chase Stats That Matter
For the first time ever Dave Stevos is going to try to find the Ryanair Chase winner by using statistics and trends. He has already covered the 2024 Cheltenham Gold Cup, you can read that preview here. Check out our 2024 Ryanair Chase Stats That Matter preview below.
Age
The sweet spot in terms of age for Ryanair Chase winners is 7yo to 9yo. Since the race was inaugurated in 2005 all but four of the renewals were won by horses in that age group. Four of the first seven winners were aged 10yo (x3) and one 6yo won in 2007 (Taranis). Since 2012 it has been solely 7yos (x6), 8yos (x3) and 9yos (x3) that have won this race.
So, this enables us to discount eleven of the remaining twenty five runners and some big names fall by the wayside. Fil Dor is as short as 10/1 with some firms but he is a 6yo so the stats say he can’t win. There are no less than ten 10yos still in the race and the highest profile casualties include Appreciate It (14/1), Conflated (10/1) and the strongly fancied 2023 winner, Envoi Allen (4/1).
Cut: Fil Dor (14/1); Envoi Allen (4/1); Conflated (10/1); Appreciate It (14/1); Seddon (100/1); Shan Blue (100/1); Millers Bank (66/10); Jungle Boogie (33/1); Janidil (100/1); Edwardstone (33/1); Editeur Du Gite (100/1).
Course Form
Having previous Cheltenham experience is usually vital, especially in this contest. Since the first running in 2005, every single winner had either won or been placed around Cheltenham apart from the 2012 winner Riverside Theatre. So, we’ll be counting out any horses that have either failed to place or win at the track before.
As you would imagine, most of the remaining contenders tick the course form box. Just two horses have failed to win or place at Prestbury Park, the 100/1 shot Minella Drama and the Willie Mullins trained 8yo Classic Getaway. He was pulled up on his sole previous visit at the 2022 Festival.
Cut: Minella Drama (100/1); Classic Getaway (20/1).
Graded Form
17 of the 20 winners of the Ryanair Chase had won in Grade 1-3 company. For the purposes of this piece will be discounting grade 3 handicap winners. So, to get past this stage horses need to have won a Grade 1, 2 or 3 over hurdles or fences.
Again, this only enables us to narrow the field slightly. Only two of the remaining horses have never won a Grade 1, 2 or 3. Hitman is a personal favourite of mine and he ran a blinder in this last year but unfortunately, he has never won a Graded race so we have to say goodbye. C&D winner Fugitif is the only other horse to come a cropper at this stage.
Cut: Fugitif (33/1); Hitman (25/1).
Official Rating
Since this race was awarded Grade 1 status in 2008 the vast majority of the winners have been rated at least 160. Imperial Commander won it when rated 156 back in 2009 but apart from that, every Ryanair winner has been a 160+ horse.
That means it is the end of the road for the 154 rated Mouse Morris trained outsider, French Dynamite. Gordon Elliott’s Ash Tree Meadow was agonisingly close to making it through but with a rating of 159, it’s a no from the stats for him.
Cut: French Dynamite (100/1); Ash Tree Meadow (25/1).
2024 Ryanair Chase Stats That Matter: The Main Contenders
So, after all that, we are left with seven main contenders for the 2024 Ryanair Chase. El Fabiolo, Banbridge, Stage Star, Capodanno, Protektorat, Ahoy Senor and Fastorslow.
The last mentioned horse is surely Gold Cup bound for Martin Brassil. After his 9L defeat behind Pic D’Orhy in the Ascot Chase on Saturday, I’d be very surprised to see Ahoy Senor going for this. Even if he does, he has looked a shadow of his former self this season.
El Fabiolo is the current favourite at around 7/4. However, he is long odds on for the Champion Chase and he will surely pitch up there.
Weather Watch
So, that leaves us with four. If the ground is decent Banbridge does look the most likely winner. The form of his Kempton win was boosted big time by Pic D’Orhy at Ascot and he is 2/2 at Cheltenham.
His backers will be keeping a very close eye on the weather because like last year, Joseph O’Brien won’t run his son of Doyen unless there is good in the ground description. He is currently 5/2 NRNB with most firms and if he gets his ground, he’ll likely go off a fair bit shorter than that.
Arkle Winner
Last year’s Arkle winner Stage Star was 15L behind Banbridge at Aintree last year. To be fair, he was probably feeling the effects of a long season but he needs to bounce back from a shocker when he was pulled up in a Cheltenham Handicap on New Year’s Day.
Perhaps the heavy ground was to blame for that effort but he’s come up short in three of his five attempts in Grade 1 company. The form of his win in last year’s Arkle is starting to look a bit suspect now and Stage Star’s odds of 5/1 make absolutely zero appeal.
Stayers
Capodanno stays further than this but he is not entered in the Gold Cup. He beat The Real Whacker over 25f here in January after finishing a remote third in the Savills behind Galopin Des Champs. Willie Mullins’ charge likes a bit of nice ground and if he gets his favoured conditions, he could run a massive race at around 8/1.
The each way value surely lies with our last remaining contender, Protektorat. Second and fifth in the last two Gold Cups, a strongly run race over 21f around Cheltenham could really suit Dan Skelton’s charge. He was only 2.75L behind L’Homme Presse at Lingfield (22f sft) last month and he ran another sound race on ground plenty soft enough for him behind Shishkin at Newbury (23.5f hvy) last time.
He’s officially rated 165, higher than Banbridge and Capodanno, and a pound inferior to Stage Star. I’m not convinced Stage Star is a better horse than Protektorat and I’d be pretty confident about his prospects of beating that rival, especially on nice ground.
If he gets his optimum conditions, Banbridge should win but both Capodanno and Protektorat are capable of keeping him honest. At the current prices, the Skelton horse has to be worth a couple of quid e/w.
