2024 Cheltenham Ante-Post NRNB E/W Tips – DS
2024 Cheltenham Ante-Post NRNB Tips
We are almost into February now and the Olympics of National Hunt racing is drawing closer. A number of firms are now going non-runner no bet for the Championship races so Dave Stevos is going to put up four bets that should be backed as e/w singles and also in an e/w lucky 15. Check out his 2024 Cheltenham Ante-Post NRNB tips below.
Tuesday – Champion Hurdle
There is every chance that this race will cut up considerably. Constitution Hill is a very warm order to follow up last year’s win and maintain his unblemished record. State Man looks to be the only realistic challenger but he has 9L to find on their meeting last season. If you take those two out of it, the race looks wide open and there is every chance something at a huge price could nick third.
Lossiemouth is the third fav at 10/1 but she is 4/5 for the Mares’ and will surely head there. Last year’s Ballymore winner Impaire Et Passe is 12/1 but, barring he turns over State Man at Leopardstown this weekend, surely he’ll be heading to the Stayers’.
Piper Overpriced
Apart from those four market leaders, the remaining 18 runners are all chalked up at 20/1 or bigger. The one that looks most overpriced and that looks most likely to run is Pied Piper. Trained by Gordon Elliott, this is a very classy animal. He has mixed hurdling with the flat since being beat a head in last year’s County off 154 and that wasn’t his first excellent effort at Cheltenham.
His four previous visits to the track generated form figures of 1312. That includes a Grade 2 win, a third in the Triumph and last year’s County Hurdle second. In the meantime, he has also finished a close second in the Cesarewitch on the level off 96.
Forgive Last Run
His last run over timber came in November where he finished last of four behind State Man at Punchestown. I’d be willing to forgive him that as he had likely been trained to peak for the Cesarewitch a month earlier.
*Gordon Elliott has freshened his charge up since that run and while he was entered in the Irish Champion Hurdle this weekend, he won’t be running due to the situation with Caldwell Construction. His new connections will hopefully still aim him at the Champion Hurdle and even if they don’t, we’ll get our money back. At odds of 40/1, Pied Piper is worth chancing e/w NRNB.
*Edited to Update on Caldwell Construction situation.
2024 Cheltenham Ante-Post NRNB Tip: Pied Piper e/w for the Champion Hurdle @ 40/1 NRNB
Wednesday – Champion Chase
Elixir Du Nutz threw a huge spanner in the works for this race with his defeat of Jonbon on Saturday. El Fabiolo is now the clear odds on favourite for the 2024 Champion Chase at 4/7 with Jonbon drifting out to 9/2. A shuddering mistake at the fourth last cost Jonbon the race at the weekend but it was an uncharacteristic error.
Yes, he has jumped a couple of fences a bit slowly in the past but that jump on Saturday was the worst mistake of his career. That being said, he jumped alright in last year’s Arkle and he couldn’t live with El Fabiolo, going down by 5.5L. Chances are, it’ll be a similar story this time.
Lively Outsider
Henry De Bromhead has two entries here. Last year’s runner up Captain Guinness is a 25/1 shot but he was a full 10 lengths behind the winner Energumene. He got to within 3.75L of Jonbon on his next start in the G1 Celebration Chase at Sandown too so his form is solid. However, he has never got closer than 10L to the winner in three runs at Cheltenham, unlike his stablemate Maskada who is 1/1.
That win came in last year’s Grand Annual off a mark of 142. The daughter of Masked Marvel was conceding 2lbs to Dino Blue and she dished out a 6.5L beating to that rival. She seemed to relish the uphill finish and it was a career best performance by the guts of a stone.
She has had two outings since that emphatic victory. At Clonmel she found 20f too far on heavy ground on her seasonal return. Then she ran in the Hilly Way at Cork and she was far from disgraced in third, 8L behind El Fabiolo and just 3.5L behind Fil Dor in second.
Better Off At Weights
Dinoblue has won all four starts since the Grand Annual. Two handicaps off 140 and 147 last April followed by a G3 win at Naas and a G1 win at Leopardstown. She is clearly a good mare but she is 0/2 at Cheltenham and Maskada would be 2lbs better off with her here than she was in the Grand Annual.
Now, it could be that De Bromhead’s plan is to try and win that race again and if that is where she goes, we’ll get our money back. However, he might just be tempted to try and nick some Grade 1 black type with his mare and a repeat of last year’s festival run might be enough to do just that.
Edredon Bleu went on to finish second in a Champion Chase (and win one) after winning the Grand Annual the year before, hopefully Maskada can follow in his hoofsteps at odds of 66/1.
2024 Cheltenham Ante-Post NRNB Tip: Maskada e/w for the Champion Chase @ 66/1 NRNB
Thursday – Stayers’ Hurdle
If it were to come up soft, Dashel Drasher would have every chance of hitting the frame again in the Stayers’ Hurdle. He ran another huge race here last weekend when the ground was probably just a shade on the lively side for him. On more testing ground he would have sustained his challenge for longer but he probably just lacks a gear when there is good in the ground description.
When backing horses ante-post it makes sense to try and find animals that aren’t ground dependent. With that in mind, Home By The Lee appeals here at odds of 33/1. Now, he wouldn’t want any extremes (heavy/good to firm) but he is effective on anything ranging from soft through to good.
33s too Big
The bookies have priced him up at odds of 33/1 for this race. That is too big for a horse that ran really well to finish a close enough fifth in this contest in 2023. Next time out at Aintree he clearly wasn’t right when pulling up in the G1 Liverpool hurdle so I am willing to put a line through that run.
After his summer break he reappeared at Navan and he ran well to finish third, 5.75L behind Bob Olinger on ground plenty testing enough for him. He bombed out behind Irish Point on even worse ground over the Xmas at Leopardstown and he hasn’t been seen since.
Joseph O’Brien’s charge will have had a nice 77 day break since that run, the same prep he had before running so well here last year. I’d imagine this race has always been the plan and he surely won’t go off at 33/1 if he turns up on the day. At those odds, Home By The Lee is the e/w ante-post selection.
2024 Cheltenham Ante-Post NRNB Tip: Home By The Lee e/w for the Stayers’ Hurdle @ 33/1 NRNB
Friday – Cheltenham Gold Cup
This year’s Gold Cup is almost a one horse race as far as the bookies are concerned. Galopin Des Champs is just 11/10 to follow up last year’s win and on the evidence of his 23L win at Leopardstown at Xmas, the fire is still burning brightly in the 8yo son of Timos.
5/1 shot Fastorslow has beaten the Mullins’ hotpot the last two times they have met. Those two runs came at Punchestown, one at the end of last season and one at the start of this campaign. I think he caught Galopin at the right time on both occasions and if they meet on Sunday in the Irish Gold Cup, I’d fancy Galopin to gain revenge.
Excellent Effort From Presse
L’Homme Presse is a personal favourite of mine and I was delighted to see him make a winning reappearance after his layoff. To beat a race fit Protektorat on his first outing for over a year was an excellent effort and the 2022 Brown Advisory winner could be the one to give Galopin most to think about in March. However, his odds of 10/1 are too short for us and at a nicer price, Gentlemansgame has to be worth a look.
Mouse Morris knows the time of day and this fella has emerged as a proper Gold Cup contender this season. In typical Morris style he has brought this horse along slowly and it was only his third chase run when he lowered the colours of Bravemansgame in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby in November.
Leopardstown Win
His only chase run in 2022 came at Leopardstown’s Xmas Meeting. That was the first glimpse we had of his potential over the bigger obstacles and he absolutely hosed up, beating I Am Maximus by 8L. That horse has since won an Irish National off 149 and the Grade 1 Drinmore Chase at Fairyhouse.
Bravemansgame didn’t do the Charlie Hall form any harm when finishing second in the King George on his next start. Mouse Morris has decided to swerve the DRF this weekend so he’ll be nice and fresh for this, just like he was when slamming I Am Maximus.
I’d prefer if he had Cheltenham experience in the book but at least his two chase wins have come on left handed tracks. He’s lightly raced and unexposed so more improvement could be forthcoming and while beating Galopin Des Champs might be too big an ask, Gentlemansgame has the credentials to sneak into the places. At odds of 16/1, he is the e/w ante-post pick.
