2024 Cheltenham Festival Friday Preview & Tips – DS
2024 Cheltenham Festival Friday Preview & Tips
A day to remember. Winners with Protektorat at 20s and Golden Ace at 14s. Places with Buddy One and Home By The Lee. Fingers crossed for more of the same on Day 4, Dave Stevos’ 2024 Cheltenham Festival Friday tips are below.
1.30 – JCB Triumph Hurdle (Grade 1)
The star turn of this year’s Triumph, Sir Gino, has been taken out. It has been a disastrous week for Nicky Henderson. We are left with a field of 13 runners and it looks like normal service will be resumed. Willie Mullins provides seven of the field, including four of the top five in the betting.
Majborough, an excellent third on his Irish debut in a Leopardstown Grade 1, is the shortest of the Mullins’ battalion at 3/1. He was only 5/1 that day at the DRF so clearly, he had been showing plenty at home. He is proven on soft ground and with improvement likely, he should go well.
Townend On Storm
9/2 shot Storm Heart is the mount of stable jockey Paul Townend. He was just in front of Majborough at Leopardstown, a length behind the winner Kargese. He had previously spreadeagled the field in a Punchestown maiden hurdle on New Year’s Eve and the Fred Winter runner up Eagles Reign was 27L behind him.
The aforementioned Kargese also pitches up here. She is priced up at 7/1, despite beating the top two last time. Danny Mullins rode that day, as he did on her first run for Mullins, and he gets the leg up again. Did the owner request Danny? Or did Townend have the choice? I’d imagine it’s the former and if it is, she looks a relatively big price.
Sir Gino Form
Salvator Mundi brings Sir Gino form into the race. He finished second to him at Auteuil a year ago but he hasn’t been seen since. He is with a trainer well capable of readying one first time up but for me he is best watched today at his current odds of 15/2.
Nurburgring was fancied for the Fred Winter but he pitches up here instead. Joseph hasn’t had many runners this week but he sent out the winner of the Fred Winter and Home By The Lee ran huge for him in the Stayers’ so his string is in excellent shape (Banbridge & Prairie Dancer hated the ground). This track and test should suit him, as will the ground, and he has big claims at 7/1.
Outsiders
Are there any interesting outsiders? There’s a few and the one that makes most appeal is Tony Bloom’s horse, Bunting. A facile winner of a Limerick maiden on St Stephen’s Day, he ran in the same G1 at the DRF as the market leaders. It was a superb effort by him to finish fourth, just 2.25L behind Kargese.
In that race his jumping was a bit scratchy at a couple of the hurdles. As they turned for home his jockey Brian Hayes had to take a bit of a pull to switch him and once he found daylight, I thought he rattled home. This stiffer test will suit him and if he can put in a slicker round of jumping, Bunting is more than capable of running into the money here at odds of 11/1.
2024 Cheltenham Festival Friday Tip: Bunting e/w @ 11/1 NAP
2.10 – County Handicap Hurdle (Premier)
Eight of the last nine renewals of the County have been won by Willie Mullins (4) and Dan Skelton (4). Both yards have been in tremendous form this week but it isn’t always the fancied ones that win in this race. Skelton’s last three winners have returned at 33s, 12s and 25s while Willie has had winners at 25s & 20s (as well as two at 11/2 and 11/4).
Unfortunately, the bookies are onto Skelton now and his two runners are just 12/1 and 5/1. Mullins runs five and three of them are 14s or shorter. Westport Cove is a horse we have backed before this season and he is the longest priced runner for Mullins at 33/1. I think this race could suit him but I’d have preferred nicer ground for him.
Go For Freedom
The one I am going to take a chance on at a huge price is the Sheena West trained Mr Freedom. He only sneaked in here at the foot of the weights thanks to a 5lbs penalty he got for winning at Plumpton (16f sft) two weeks ago. That was obviously a lesser race than this but he has solid festival form in the book.
In last year’s Fred Winter this son of Sixtie’s Icon ran a huge race to finish fifth. He was only 4L behind the winner Jazzy Matty and 3L behind Risk Belle in third. However, Mr Freedom’s saddle slipped early doors & Robbie Dunne lost his irons at one point so the performance deserves to be marked up significantly.
He was running off 120 that day and he was getting 7lbs from Risk Belle. They meet on the same terms again and if Mr Freedom doesn’t have any problems during the race this time, surely he can get much closer to that rival. At odds of 50/1, he is worth taking a chance on e/w.
2024 Cheltenham Festival Friday Tip: Mr Freedom e/w @ 50/1 (6 places) nb
2.50 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
A smaller field than usual for the good old potato race with just 14 going to post. Since At Fishers Cross won in 2013 at 11/8, this has been a graveyard for favourites. Monkfish won at 5/1 in 2020 but apart from him the winners have been priced up at between 11/1 and 50/1.
Can we find one to spring a surprise this year? The bookies make Readin Tommy Wrong the 9/4 favourite and he was admittedly very impressive last time at Naas (20f sft). On pedigree this longer trip will suit and it must be said that he looks a worthy favourite.
Lecky Watson is another very interesting runner for Mullins and the Slaneyville Syndicate. We backed him e/w in the G1 won by Readin Tommy Wrong and he shaped like a real stayer in the making. His second to Slade Steel at Navan reads well now and if this turns into a slog he could be the one.
Bigger Odds
He’s only a 12/1 shot though and I am instead going to take a punt on The Jukebox Man at bigger odds. Ben Pauling’s charge is 22/1 and he is guaranteed to go on the soft ground. A maiden and novice winner at Ffos Las (20f hvy) on his first two starts this year, he ran a huge race in the G1 Challow when an unconsidered 20/1 poke last time out.
I thought he stayed on very nicely in that race to finish 1.75L behind Captain Teague. He had a very reliable yardstick in Lookaway a neck ahead of him and he’ll be taking on the winner again today. Johnnywho also caught the eye back in fourth but the bookies haven’t missed him.
The Jukebox Man has loads of stamina in his pedigree. He should be well suited by this trip and I can see him outstaying Captain Teague if it comes down to a battle up the hill. At odds of 22/1, hopefully The Jukebox Man is on song.
2024 Cheltenham Festival Friday Tip: The Jukebox Man e/w @ 22/1 (4 places)
3.30 – Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1)
The big one. We have already backed Gentlemansgame at 16s in our NRNB ante-post preview. He’s drifted a bit now but that doesn’t concern me. He goes well fresh and he is trained by a man who knows the time of day. Hopefully he gives Darragh O’Keefe a good spin.
To be honest, if Galopin Des Champs is in the same form as he was on his last two runs at Leopardstown, he wins. That is reflected in his odds of 11/10 and while I thought he might lack the stamina for this race last year, he dispelled those doubts in devastating fashion.
Fastorslow has beaten Galopin Des Champs twice at Punchestown. Once over 20f in the John Durkan this season and once at the Punchestown Festival over 24f. Last time he was 4.5l behind his rival at the DRF but I’d imagine connections were keeping a little bit up their sleeve for the big one. If, for whatever reason, Galopin isn’t at peak form, he is the most likely to take advantage.
Best of The Rest
Gerri Colombe is a decent horse but he reminds me a bit of Galvin. He lacks a turn of foot and that is something that most Gold Cup winners possess. He’ll probably stay on late but it is hard to envisage him being good enough to win.
L’Homme Presse is 11/1 and I’ve always been a fan of his. However, I don’t think he has looked the same horse since he suffered his setback. The form of his win over Protektorat was boosted on Thursday but he just doesn’t seem to jump as well as he used to.
Forgotten Horse
Bravemansgame is something of a forgotten horse. Last year’s runner up has caught a bad dose of seconditis. He’s filled that position in all three runs this season, behind Gentlemansgame, Royale Pagaille and Hewick. At Punchestown last year he was only 3l behind Fastorslow and you could definitely argue that he is overpriced at 14/1 on all known form.
Nassalam was one that I thought might outrun his odds if it came up bottomless. If there is heavy in the description tomorrow, he might be worth a fiver e/w at 50/1.
However, I am going to stick with Gentlemansgame. Our stats based preview suggests that the market leaders will come to the fore and in all likelihood, they probably will. Mouse Morris’ charge is arguably the least exposed of the outsiders so we still don’t know where his limitations may lie. Hopefully it is a great race and they all come home safe and sound.
2024 Cheltenham Festival Friday Tip: Gentlemansgame already advised e/w @ 16/1; Back Nassalam e/w @ 50/1 if it comes up heavy.
4.10 – St James’s Palace Hunters’ Chase (Premier)
A race I have zero opinion on. No bet.
2024 Cheltenham Festival Friday Tip: No bet
4.50 – Paddy Power Mares’ Chase (Grade 2)
Every year the bookies completely write off Pink Legend for this race. She first ran in it in 2022 and she pushed Elimay all the way at 33/1. Last year she turned up again and she ran into the money at odds of 33/1 on soft ground.
She is now a 10yo but she retains plenty of ability, as she showed when winning a Listed chase at Newbury in December (23f sft). In her early days she seemed to need good ground but now that she is getting older, she seems to appreciate a bit of cut.
Cheltenham Form
Venetia Williams’ mare loves it at Cheltenham. Her career form figures here read 1231 so it seems to bring out the best in her. She does have a lot to find on the figures with some of those at the top of the market but that has often been the case with her.
After backing her for the last two years at silly odds, she owes us nothing so at 80/1, I can’t resist having a little bit on her again. Dinoblue does look the most likely winner but hopefully Pink Legend gives us a decent run for our money.
2024 Cheltenham Festival Friday Tip: Pink Legend e/w @ 80/1
5.30 – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Hurdle (Class 2)
The last race of the week is always a minefield. 23 will go to post and the one that makes most appeal from an each way perspective is Sequestered. We backed Buddy One in this race last year for the same connections and he landed the e/w money for us. This horse represents the same connections and I’d imagine he’s been trained for this race.
He won his maiden at Sligo, a track with a stiff uphill finish. He then followed that with an excellent effort at Listowel in a Novice, chasing home High Class Hero, a 12/1 shot for the Albert Bartlett that is now rated 145. The County Galway trained horse made no mistake on his next start at Galway (20f hvy), another track with a stiff uphill finish. He outstayed Stuzzikini, who he is 3lbs worse off with here, but I can still see him upholding that form.
Poor Runs
Paul Gilligan’s charge didn’t run well the next twice, in a G2 at Cheltenham on good to soft and in a Thurles novice. However, he got vital course experience in that Grade 2, even though he was well beaten, and that could stand to him. Last time at Leopardstown (24f sft) he made his handicap debut and he wasn’t disgraced behind Maxxum.
He’ll have learned plenty from that run in a big field and the drop back to this trip is a big plus. A fast run race should suit him as he has plenty of stamina and we know he relishes uphill finishes. At odds of 50/1, hopefully Sequestered can send us home with a big win.
2024 Cheltenham Festival Friday Tip: Sequestered e/w @ 50/1 (5 places)
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