2024 Chinese GP Raceday Update & Tips – JP
2024 Chinese GP Raceday Preview
Now, it is time for James Punt’s 2024 Chinese GP Raceday Update.
2024 Chinese GP Raceday
Just one more session to go. These Sprint race weekends are just too busy, it seems like we have been here for a week, but finally we arrive at the main event, the Grand Prix.
Team-by-Team
Red Bull
Another front row lock out for the Red Bulls. Verstappen was three tenths faster than Perez and Perez 1.66 faster than Alonso in third.
Verstappen won the sprint race, by over 13 seconds from Hamilton. It took him a while to get through the cars ahead of him, but once in clean air, he just took off and was just so much faster. Clearly the car is a rocket ship, especially in clean air.
DRS Not Powerful
I was a bit surprised it took Verstappen so long to clear the pack. It seems the DRS is not very powerful on this track, and that goes for everyone. There just wasn’t the kind of overtaking you’d expect down the long straights.
Verstappen had a small problem with his power unit settings which explained why he was looking a bit slow for the first few laps. Perez finished third in the Sprint race, again just not finding passing easy, but starting from second in the GP, he has to be fancied to score his fourth second place of the season.
Ferrari
Very disappointing so far, it must be said. They could only qualify fifth and seventh for the Sprint race and while they did make up places, they only ended up fourth and fifth.
Leclerc was the stronger of the two in the race and the two teammates made contact with each other at one point. It looks like their race pace is stronger and they have sacrificed one lap pace for better race pace.
However, starting from sixth and seventh is giving up a lot of ground. Getting a car on the podium will be the aim but the car was a few Kph shy of all but Alpine down the long straight. That could make overtaking hard. They seem to be playing a long game tyre wear wise, how that pans out remains to be seen.
Objection
I am writing this some fifteen hours before the start of the race. Aston Martin have lodged a complaint about the qualifying results, saying that Sainz should not have been allowed to take any further part in qualifying, after he crashed and caused a red flag. During that red flag period, he got the car back to the pits and repaired.
However, Article 39.6 of the F1 sporting regulations, states: “Any driver whose car stops on the track during the qualifying session or the sprint qualifying session shootout will not be permitted to take any further part in that session.” That seems pretty black and white to me. So, if you are thinking of backing Sainz for anything, hold fire. He may end up getting a demotion.
I will have a small bet that Sainz does indeed get a demotion, a deletion of his Q3 and Q2 times has been mentioned.
2024 Chinese GP Raceday Tip: 0.5 point Either Ferrari NOT to finish in the top 6 @ 3.40 with Boylesports
McLaren
A bit of a head scratcher here. I expected them to struggle, but they have shown a surprising turn of foot. However, that speed seems to evaporate on long runs.
Norris took advantage of the wet track to qualify on pole for the Sprint race but got squeezed off the track at the first corner by Hamilton, and he was back in fifth place very quickly. Piastri made up just one place and the two finished sixth and seventh.
That seems like they have a tyre issue. Good at getting heat into them for qualifying but losing performance on the race runs. The two McLarens start the race in fourth and fifth, ahead of both Ferraris. I expect that to be reversed, but it will be interesting to see how long it takes.
Aston Martin
Interesting. Alonso has been very quick in the qualifying sessions, ending up third in both. He was the only retirement in the Sprint race after having a coming together when racing with Carlos Sainz. He went from third to DNF very quickly.
His race was run when he got his puncture, tyre degradation meant he couldn’t hold off the chasing Ferraris and Perez any longer. It seems that the Aston is degrading the tyres more rapidly than Ferrari and Red Bull. His race is likely to be with McLaren for fifth place. We are on him to finish in the top 6 and he is very much in the running to do so.
Lance Stroll has been out there somewhere. He starts from eleventh and should finish in the points
Mercedes
I struggle to get to grips with the Mercedes. Is it quick, is it poor? Take your pick. Hamilton qualified and finished second in the Sprint but went out in Q1 in GP qualifying. He did make a big mistake at the hairpin but he was struggling.
George Russell has not been better than eighth in any session. Russell used the soft tyre for the Sprint race and made them last, making up three places. That bodes well for his race pace.
It could be that Russell can target the McLarens, if the orange cars do suffer with tyre degradation. Hamilton starts in eighteenth place and will move up the order, but that will take it out of his tyres.
Haas
It has been the usual story of Hulkenberg having the best one lap pace, but Magnussen doing a good job on the longer runs. Hulkenberg qualified in ninth place for the GP, Magnussen seventeenth.
The car is quick down the straights, but not massively so. The Haas generally makes up places in the races, but Hulkenberg will be hard pushed to keep Stroll behind him, and even a rejuvenated Bottas fancies his chances of beating the Haas.
I expect Hulkenberg to be in the mix for a top 10 finish, but he may need a bit of attrition. Magnussen will make up places, but he is too far back to score points on merit.
Stake F1
The surprise package of the weekend. They have been around the tenth place mark in every session. Zhou’s failure to get out of Q1 was the only slip they have made. Bottas did lose three places in the Sprint race and that suggests that he may struggle to turn his tenth place on the grid into points.
The Sauber has had a tendency to slip down the field in the races, but they seem to have the car in a good place so far. Of course, their pitstops are potential disaster zones as their sticky wheel nuts are still a problem.
Visa RB
A disappointing weekend for the team who came here as best of the rest. Tsunoda, having a very good season so far, has been nowhere. Nineteenth in both qualifying sessions and he only made up three places in the Sprint.
Ricciardo has looked good in comparison. He was eleventh in the Sprint, making up three places. Ricciardo starts from twelfth and the car has been quick in a straight line. He doesn’t have anyone massively faster behind him, but he will need a some good fortune if he is to score points.
The team has given him a new chassis this weekend, I wonder did they give Yuki his old one?
Williams
The good news is that neither driver has hit anything yet. Sargeant did spin off in one session, but luckily, the wall was some way away. Sargeant will be favourite to finish last, Albon will finish just outside the points.
Alpine
Progress is being made, but it is slow, a bit like the car. They did get both cars into Q2. Ocon has the new improved package and while it is better, it is not a huge step. They may still end up keeping Sargeant company at the rear, but it will be interesting to keep an eye on Ocon, to see how the new upgrade fares.
2024 Chinese GP Raceday Selections
Verstappen starts as the 1.13 favourite and Perez is the 13.00 second favourite. Only a misfortune can stop them from having a fourth 1-2 finish of the season. Ferrari should follow them home at a respectable distance. McLaren have shown surprising pace, but I suspect they may suffer from relatively poor tyre degradation.
2024 Chinese GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Charles Leclerc to finish on the podium @ 2.00 with Betfair, Skybet
There are two match bets with Ladbrokes which make some appeal.
I fancy the chances of Russell to finish ahead of Oscar Piastri. The Merecedes looks to have decent long run pace and there are question marks over McLaren’s race pace. This track shouldn’t be good for McLaren and hopefully that manifests itself tomorrow.
2024 Chinese GP Raceday Tip: 1 point George Russell to beat Oscar Piastri @ 2.00 with Ladbrokes
Kevin Magnussen has a habit of underperforming in qualifying but making up ground in the races. He has improved by 3.25 places across the first four races. The car is a lot better than his starting position of seventeenth. Alex Albon usually stays about where he qualifies. The Haas does have a bit of a top speed advantage and that might be the difference if Magnussen can get Albon in his sights.
2024 Chinese GP Raceday Tip: 1 point Kevin Magnussen to beat Alex Albon @ 1.80 with Ladbrokes
Finally, there is one group bet to be struck. Also with Ladbrokes. Group 2 has Lance Stroll up against three second division drivers. Daniel Ricciardo, Nico Hulkenberg and Valtteri Bottas.
Hulkenberg starts ninth, Bottas tenth, Stroll eleventh and Ricciardo twelfth (all subject to a promotion if Sainz gets penalised). The Aston Martin is the faster car, wasted a bit on Stroll, but he does have his strengths and the start is one.
He is quick off the line and often makes up a few places on lap one. On average he has made up just over two places in completed races so far. However, it is the Aston Martin’s long run pace that should allow Stroll to win this. The car is at least 0.6 seconds a lap faster than any of his group rivals. He should be able to make that pay.
