2024 Grand National Runner by Runner Guide – DS
2024 Grand National Runner by Runner Guide
The highlight of the jumps racing calendar is just a day away. A reduced field of 34 horses were declared, a 34f trip and 30 fences await and it is a race where anything can happen. We have already backed Stattler (read why here) and I Am Maximus (read why here). Now, Dave will weigh up the prospects of all 34 contenders, check out his 2024 Grand National Runner by Runner Guide below.
1. Noble Yeats
Trainer: Emmet Mullins Jockey: Harry Cobden
Best Odds: 25/1
The 2022 winner is back to try his hand again. Last year he ran another fine race to finish fourth off 166 and he is just a pound lower today. When he won he was running off 147 and it looks like the handicapper just might have his measure. That being said, he’ll be ridden by a top jockey in Harry Cobden and he has form figures of 114 at Aintree. Place claims again but winning may be beyond him.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 7/10 *******
2. Nassalam
Trainer: Gary Moore Jockey: Caoilin Quinn
Best Odds: 33/1
Mudlark who won’t want the track to dry out. Won the Welsh National on bottomless ground by a huge margin off 145 back in December. Pulled up in the Gold Cup last time when he found things happening too quickly for him. Got a whopping 16lbs rise for winning at Chepstow and has to prove he is up to his new mark. Does have previous experience of the fences (4th in the Grand Sefton) but would probably need it to be heavy all over to be competitive here.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 5/10 *****
3. Coko Beach
Trainer: Gordon Elliott Jockey: Jordan Gainford
Odds: 25/1
Really likeable stayer who, more often than not, runs his race. Dotted up in a chase at Punchestown last time out and was a very creditable second behind Chambard off 162 in the Becher here back in December (26f hvy). Is a pound lower here but he remains 8lbs above his last winning mark. He was pulled up in this last year off 155. The softer ground this year will suit better and a decent run could be on the cards.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 6/10 ******
4. Capodanno
Trainer: Willie Mullins Jockey: Keith Donoghue
Odds: 40/1
Pleasing prep run for this 8yo son of Manduro in the Ryanair. Previously beat The Real Whacker in a Cheltenham G2 over 25f in January. Also ran a decent race when a remote third behind Galopin Des Champs at Leopardstown’s Xmas meeting. Big issue for this lad would be soft or heavy ground. He got his ideal conditions last year here and pulled up off 160. Hard to see him figuring off a pound higher.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 2/10 **
5. I Am Maximus
Trainer: Willie Mullins Jockey: Paul Townend
Odds: 7/1
Our 25/1 ante post selection. Comfortably beat Vanillier giving him 12lbs in his prep at Fairyhouse (25f sft/hvy). Is 4lbs better off with him here. Won the Irish National last season under Paul Townend, the last time he rode. He’s 10lbs higher here but after his win last time out he looks like he could be ahead of the handicapper. On the downside, his best form is going right handed and he can throw in the odd sticky jump. Zero value left in his odds now but we are sitting pretty at 25/1. If he puts in a good round of jumping, he should be bang there.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 8/10 ********
6. Minella Indo
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead Jockey: Rachael Blackmore
Odds: 20/1
A brilliant servant to connections. Won the Gold Cup in 2021 and then chased home A Plus Tard in 2022. A Grade 1 performer in his pomp but he is an 11yo now. Shaped nicely under a welter burden in his prep run over the Cross Country fences at Cheltenham in December. Excellent record when fresh but has never run at Aintree before. Too old? Probably, but he’s with a top trainer and he won’t lack assistance from the saddle. Outside e/w claims.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 6/10 ******
7. Corach Rambler
Trainer: Lucinda Russell Jockey: Derek Fox
Odds: 8/1
Last year’s hero off 146, he is officially 3lbs well in here off 159. No show on first couple of runs this season but ran huge to place in the Gold Cup last time out. However, it looked like he had a hard race there and you’d worry that it may have left a mark. On paper he looks to have a big chance but I’m not so sure, especially if the ground is very testing.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 5/10 *****
8. Janidil
Trainer: Willie Mullins Jockey: Jody McGarvey
Odds: 125/1
A bit of an all or nothing character and most of his recent runs can be filed in the latter category. Has never won beyond 20f and that is unlikely to change in this race. Would be a massive shock if he were to figure at the business end.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 1/10 *
9. Stattler
Trainer: Willie Mullins Jockey: Patrick Mullins
Odds: 50/1
Owner Ronnie Bartlett said our second ante-post selection wouldn’t run on bad ground. It looks like it might dry out a bit by Saturday and that will suit this horse, even though he handles heavy. He stays longer than the mother in law, he’s weighted to reverse his Tramore form with Minella Indo and on his best form, a mark of 158 looks workable. Each way claims.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 8/10 ********
10. Mahler Mission
Trainer: John McConnell Jockey: Ben Harvey
Odds: 16/1
Well regarded son of Mahler who ran a very satisfactory prep race at Newbury (26f gd/sft) in December. Finished second off 151 on his handicap debut that day and the handicapper took a dim view. He pitches up here off 159 and Ben Harvey’s claim is gone so he’s effectively 10lbs higher than he was at Newbury. Still relatively unexposed but you couldn’t say he is thrown in. Will handle the ground but stamina not guaranteed.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 5/10 *****
11. Delta Work
Trainer: Gordon Elliott Jockey: Jack Kennedy
Odds: 20/1
This 11yo son of Network has unfinished business in this race. Ran third in 2022, though was well beaten by 22L off 160. Was still travelling nicely when unseating last year at the 21st fence. Has come into the race under the radar after the Cross Country was cancelled at Cheltenham. Been trained for this and is the choice of stable jockey Jack Kennedy. Handles heavy ground but most of his best form is on yielding/soft. Only 3lbs lower than 2022 and may need more help from the assessor.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 6/10 ******
12. Foxy Jacks
Trainer: Mouse Morris Jockey: Gavin Brouder
Odds: 40/1
Mouse Morris has tasted success in this race before with Rule The World in 2016. This year he relies on Foxy Jacks, a 10yo son of Fame And Glory. This horse comes into the race fresh. The plan was to run in the Cross Country at Cheltenham but that fell foul of the weather. He gave Latenightpass 7lbs and a 1.25L beating on his penultimate start (29f gd/sft) and he’s just a pound worse off here. A prominent racer, his run style should be suited to this race. Soft ground suits and he’s a lively outsider.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 7/10 *******
13. Galvin
Trainer: Gordon Elliott Jockey: Sam Ewing
Odds: 33/1
Slow stayer who unseated early doors in this race last year. Had previously chased home Delta Work in the Cross Country at Cheltenham on soft ground, finishing 2.5L behind him. Is 2lbs better off here so theoretically, there shouldn’t be much between them. Is he well treated off 155? I’m not too sure and if there is heavy in the description that may not suit him either. Could stay on late for a place but can’t see him winning.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 6/10 ******
14. Farouk D’Alene
Trainer: Gordon Elliott Jockey: Donagh Meyler
Odds: 100/1
The heavier the ground, the better for this 9yo son of Racinger. Had form with the likes of Stattler and Vanillier back in the day but spent a year and a half on the sidelines after a fall at Cheltenham in 2022. Fell again on his return at Navan in the Troytown and that does not bode well for this race. However, the ground is in his favour and if he put in a clear round, he should be staying on at the finish.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 5/10 *****
15. Eldorado Allen
Trainer: Joe Tizzard Jockey: Brendan Powell
Odds: 100/1
Disconcerting that he reportedly made a noise on his last run after undergoing a wind procedure. All his best form is on good to soft ground so the conditions are another negative. Very hard to see him making an impact.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 1/10 *
16. Ain’t That A Shame
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead Jockey: David Maxwell
Odds: 50/1
Went off at just 10/1 for this last year but the ground was probably too lively for him. The ground this time should suit much better. Won the Thyestes on heavy on his last start off 144 and is in off 152 here. The much maligned David Maxwell will ride and he could get a nice spin round on this 10yo. Trip is a concern though and a big career best will be needed.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 4/10 ****
17. Vanillier
Trainer: Gavin Cromwell Jockey: Sean Flanagan
Odds: 11/1
One of the market leaders. Ran a massive race in this last year to finish second off 147. Is in off 151 this year and that mark shouldn’t be beyond him. However, the ground has to rate as a massive worry for him at this distance. Was firmly put in his place on heavy ground by I Am Maximus at Fairyhouse last time and is worse off at the weights with that rival. Needs the ground to dry out.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 5/10 *****
18. Mr Incredible
Trainer: Willie Mullins Jockey: Brian Hayes
Odds: 14/1
This 8yo has attracted support in the market. First run since unseating in last year’s renewal (saddle slipped) when chasing home Beauport in the Midlands National on heavy ground. Stayed the trip well and races off the same mark of 150 here. Brian Hayes gets a good tune out of this son of Westerner and he is definitely one of the more likely ones. Big chance.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 8/10 ********
19. Run Wild Fred
Trainer: Gordon Elliott Jockey: Tom Hamilton
Odds: 66/1
Failed to complete five of his last nine starts, including when falling in this (and the Irish National) in 2023. Capable when he does complete, as he showed when 5L behind Galvin at Punchestown a couple of years ago. However, hasn’t shown anything this season to suggest he can be competitive here. Up against it.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 2/10 **
20. Latenightpass
Trainer: Tom Ellis Jockey: Gina Andrews
Odds: 40/1
England’s best chance of a winner? Possibly. He loves this place and he has been in top form this season. Second to Foxy Jacks in a Cross Country race in November then beat Francky Du Berlais back there in December. Form figures of 214 over the National Fences at 21f and proved he stays at least 29f when winning at Cheltenham. The worry is the ground but if it keeps drying out, he could make his presence felt.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 7/10 *******
21. Minella Crooner
Trainer: Gordon Elliott Jockey: Kevin Sexton
Odds: 100/1
Beat I Am Maximus at Fairyhouse in December 2022 off level weights. That was over 21f though and he has never won beyond 23f. Pulled up both starts at 30f/29f and pulled up last time too in the Ultima. Looks like an also ran.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 1/10 *
22. Adamantly Chosen
Trainer: Willie Mullins Jockey: Sean O’Keefe
Odds: 66/1
Talented 7yo that has a big pot in him at some stage but not sure it’ll be this one. Never had him down as a strong stayer but won really well over 26f at Down Royal last time, beating Roi Mage by 14L. Handles soft ground but most of his best form is going right handed. That’s enough to put me off him, might be one for Fairyhouse next year.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 4/10 ****
23. Mac Tottie
Trainer: Peter Bowen Jockey: James Bowen
Odds: 66/1
No doubt about him loving these fences. What is a worry for him is the trip. Form figures of 7FP at further than three miles. Has run well at three miles before but his wins here in the Topham and Grand Sefton both came at 21f. Should run well to a point but hard to see him getting home.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 2/10 **
24. Chemical Energy
Trainer: Gordon Elliott Jockey: Danny Gilligan
Odds: 50/1
Returns from 206 days off and was last sighted finishing sixth in the Kerry National. Finished second in the NH Chase (30f sft) behind Gaillard Du Mesnil in 2023 and you’d have to think that this has been the plan since that run. However, the vast majority of his best form is on good ground and this is a big ask after his layoff. Overlooked.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 3/10 ***
25. Limerick Lace
Trainer: Gavin Cromwell Jockey: Mark Walsh
Odds: 12/1
Mark Walsh rides this full sister to Inothewayurthinkin, a winner here on Friday. A good omen? Is having an excellent season, winning three of her four starts including the G2 Mares’ Chase at Cheltenham last time out. That win, and her win at Donny in December, came over 20f but she did see out the trip well when second in the Troytown in November (24f hvy). If she stays she might not be far away.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 7/10 *******
26. Meetingofthewaters
Trainer: Willie Mullins Jockey: Danny Mullins
Odds: 11/1
Nice prep for this when third behind Chianti Classico in the Ultima off 147. Rated 149 but gets in off 147 so slightly ahead of the assessor. Won at Cork (21f sft) and a big handicap at Leopardstown off 130 earlier this season. Will handle the ground and gets 3 miles well, the question is whether he’ll stay this far. Mixed messages in his pedigree regarding the suitability of the trip but wouldn’t completely write him off staying it. E/w claims.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 7/10 *******
27. The Goffer
Trainer: Gordon Elliott Jockey: Sean Bowen
Odds: 66/1
7yo son of Yeats who has shaped more than once like he wants a trip like this. Heavy ground was no good to him in the Ultima last time out and he needs the ground to dry out for him. Stayed on late in the Kerry National and Bet365 Gold Cup last year and if it were good to soft on Saturday, he’d be a really interesting outsider. If the weather plays ball, he could run a huge race. If it doesn’t, he’s goosed.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 6/10 ******
28. Roi Mage
Trainer: Pat Griffin Jockey: James Reveley
Odds: 50/1
If you are looking for one at a monster price that might run well, this 12yo fits the bill. James Reveley is over from France to ride and he is 2/4 aboard the son of Poliglote. Ran a cracker in this last year to finish 7th on ground plenty quick for him. Is 2lbs lower now and this time, he should get his favoured conditions. Vibes from the yard are good and while it may be too big an ask for him to win at the grand old age of 12, he looks sure to give e/w players a more than decent run for their money.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 8/10 ********
29. Glengouly
Trainer: Willie Mullins Jockey: Michael O’Sullivan
Odds: 80/1
8yo son of Coastal Path that finished a good second in the Thyestes on heavy ground in January. Well beaten over 20f in the Plate at Cheltenham and I’m not sure going left handed is ideal for him. Pulled up on his only other chase start going to the left and there must be a reason why eleven of his fourteen career starts have come on right handed courses. An unlikely winner.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 1/10 *
30. Galia Des Liteaux
Trainer: Dan Skelton Jockey: Harry Skelton
Odds: 28/1
Talented daughter of Saddler Maker who is unexposed at marathon trips. Ran huge when tackling the longest distance of her career to date in the 29f Classic Chase at Warwick. Was staying on at the finish that day so looks well worth a try at this sort of distance. Last win came on good to soft but handles testing ground well and ran respectably in a Grade 1 on her only previous visit to Aintree. Could go well off a nice low weight.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 7/10 *******
31. Panda Boy
Trainer: Martin Brassil Jockey: JJ Slevin
Odds: 11/1
Martin Brassil has won this race before and he runs an old friend of the blog in Panda Boy. It feels like a long time ago since we backed him to win a handicap hurdle at Leopardstown off 128 and he comes into this race off a mark of 146. Ran really well in last year’s Irish National behind I Am Maximus but it looked like that 29f trip was at the limit of his stamina. 4m 2f might just prove to be beyond him.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 6/10 ******
32. Eklat De Rire
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead Jockey: Darragh O’Keefe
Odds: 100/1
Son of Saddex was pulled up in the Ultima. Previously chased home Velvet Elvis on heavy ground at Fairyhouse (24f). Hasn’t won a race since beating Conflated in 2021. If he could rediscover that form he’d have a great chance here but that is a big if.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 2/10 **
33. Chambard
Trainer: Venetia Williams Jockey: Lucy Turner
Odds: 66/1
Venetia Williams pulled off a massive shock in this with Mon Mome. Can Chambard repeat the trick? Won an attritional Becher Chase on heavy ground in December by 13L off 140 with Coko Beach back in second. 7lbs worse off with him here so theoretically, he shouldn’t be far away from that rival again. The softer the ground the better for this 12yo so the improved weather has to be a worry and so does the trip. Pulled up and beat 30+ lengths on both runs beyond 26f.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 5/10 *****
34. Kitty’s Light
Trainer: Christian Williams Jockey: Jack Tudor
Odds: 12/1
Last, but definitely not least, is Kitty’s Light. Christian Williams’ stable star ran amok in staying handicaps at the backend of last season. He won the Eider (33.5f gd/sft), the Scottish National (32f gd) and the Bet365 Gold Cup (29f gd/sft). The last two wins came off 140 and after a quiet campaign this season, he pitches up here off just 7lbs higher. The more the ground dries out the better and he ticks an awful lot of boxes. Massive claims.
2024 Grand National Stevos’ Star Rating: 9/10 *********
The Verdict
So, who makes the shortlist? We have already backed I Am Maximus at 25/1 and he’s now the favourite with some firms. The drying ground should suit Stattler well and we are also on him at 40s.
Mr Incredible is another very interesting runner for Willie Mullins but his odds look short enough now. Roi Mage is certainly overpriced at 50/1 and I am going to recommend an e/w bet on him.
However, with drying ground in his favour, Kitty’s Light has to be of huge interest. He stays the trip, he carries bottom weight and his trainer is a master at targeting these types of races. His odds are too short for the blog but he is my idea of the most likely winner.
Hopefully it’s a great race and all the horses come home safe and sound.
2024 Grand National Prediction
1 Kitty’s Light
2 I Am Maximus
3 Stattler
4 Roi Mage (back e/w @ 50/1 6 places)
5 Mr Incredible
